Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$312.24 -6.68% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $307.89

Nova Ltd. (NVMI) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 56/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $10.63B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ: NVMI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $312.24 (-6.68% 1D, market cap $10.63B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, NVMI ranks #282 in composite RQD confidence.

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πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NVMI compare to ARW and AVT in the Technology sector?
β–Ό

Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), NVMI carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 41.0x, gross margin of 57.4%, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, ARW (Arrow Electronics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 19.7x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $11.25B) and AVT (Avnet Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 22.7x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $7.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARW leads on earnings multiple (19.7x) while NTAP leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

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πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVMI?
β–Ό

Per NVMI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001109345), Nova Ltd. generated $880.6M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), $259.2M in net income, and $217.9M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $307.90 (-1.39%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) β€’ 24.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 56/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 51.8% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510056
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ Β· Rk C-
Cash (13)Whales (6)SEC (15)Macro (9)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.9% Base Target
$647 Bull$309 Base$241 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NVMI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVMI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±7.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (56/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NVMI SCORES 56/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 8.08 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 8/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 24.7% FCF Margin ($217.9M FCF) & 57.4% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
64
Grade C+$342.29-6.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
61
Grade C$320.03+2.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
59
Grade C$327.60-4.7% Next Q
Current
56
Grade D+$312.24-0.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (64) β†’ D+ (56)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NVMI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 56/100 (D+) score, NVMI faces multiple-compression risk if 41.0x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 41x earningsβ€”high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($351.96) or 200D SMA ($440.35) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($309.43) toward Bear Floor ($241.36).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVMIβ€’ $4.8M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNVMI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

NVMI Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (NVMI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on NVMI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVMI)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of NVMI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NVMI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.57%πŸ›‘οΈ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-02O $334.7H $334.7L $312.2C $312.2VOL 170.6K
RES: $382.4SUP: $298.9SMA50: $352.0SMA200: $440.4
$637.8$547.5$457.2$367.0$276.7RES $382.4SUP $298.9$312.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVMI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
31.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +31.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVMI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVMI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVMI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVMI)

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (NVMI vs. ARW, AVT, CAMT, NTAP)

Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nova Ltd. (NVMI) ranks #282 by composite RQD confidence (56/100, grade D+) and #148 by equity capitalization ($10.63B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ARW leads on earnings valuation at 19.7x trailing P/E, while NTAP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.5% ROIC and 70.7% gross margin. NTAP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with NVMI at 56/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NVMI ACTIVE
Nova Ltd.
D+ 56/100 41.0x 57.4% 13.0% -6.68% $10.63B Benchmark Subject
ARW
Arrow Electronics Inc.
D- 43/100 19.7x 11.2% 6.9% -5.69% $11.25B /arw-vs-nvmi β†’
AVT
Avnet Inc.
D 48/100 22.7x 10.4% 8.0% -4.58% $7.60B /avt-vs-nvmi β†’
CAMT
Camtek Ltd.
D+ 57/100 116.2x 50.5% 14.3% -7.89% $5.90B /camt-vs-nvmi β†’
NTAP
NetApp Inc.
B 72/100 33.6x 70.7% 38.5% -8.81% $42.90B /ntap-vs-nvmi β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001109345

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Nova Ltd. (NVMI) reported GAAP revenue of $880.6M (+31.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $672.4M , and +70.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $259.2M, operating cash flow of $245.6M, and free cash flow of $217.9M (-0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, NVMI closed FY2025 with $2.36B in total assets against $469.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 8.08, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $880.6M $259.2M $245.6M $217.9M $2.36B $469.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $672.4M $183.8M $235.3M $218.1M $1.39B $208.2M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $517.9M $136.3M $123.5M $100.2M $5.85B $1.37B

3. NVMI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVMI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, Nova Ltd. (NASDAQ: NVMI) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 56/100 at a spot price of $312.24 (-6.68% 1D, market cap $10.63B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, NVMI ranks #282 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NVMI compare to ARW and AVT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), NVMI carries a Roarable D+ (56/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 41.0x, gross margin of 57.4%, and ROIC of 13.0%. By comparison, ARW (Arrow Electronics Inc.) holds a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E 19.7x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $11.25B) and AVT (Avnet Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 22.7x, ROIC 8.0%, cap $7.60B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ARW leads on earnings multiple (19.7x) while NTAP leads on capital efficiency (38.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVMI?

Per NVMI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001109345), Nova Ltd. generated $880.6M in revenue (+31.0% YoY), $259.2M in net income, and $217.9M in free cash flow against $2.36B in total assets and $469.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NVMI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVMI last traded at $312.24 (-6.68% on volume of 323,219 shares), positioning the stock -11.29% below its 50-day simple moving average ($351.96) and -29.09% below its 200-day simple moving average ($440.35). Across its 52-week range of $266.43 to $615.99, NVMI sits at the 13.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±7.2% ($289.76 to $334.72).

NVMI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Are NVMI insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies NVMI leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 56/100 (D+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

NVMI β€” Nova Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:16:18Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, NVMI scores 56 out of 100, a letter grade of D+, and carries the verdict label "Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13 / 20): ROIC of 13% and an FCF yield of 2.05%. Per the market data, the FCF yield is modest relative to the stock's $10.63B market capitalization, which points to a valuation that already prices in substantial future cash generation.
  • Whale 13F Flow (6 / 20): The lowest-scoring pillar, reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning. The source data does not break out specific 13F holdings, so the drivers of this low score cannot be decomposed further.
  • Insider Conviction (13 / 20): Based on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow. The source data does not itemize individual insider transactions.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9 / 20): Beta of 1.38 indicates above-market sensitivity to broad market moves; the source does not provide sector-sensitivity detail beyond this.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet (15 / 20): Altman Z-Score of 8.08, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.33. This is the strongest pillar and indicates a financially resilient balance sheet.

Investor implications (educational, not personalized advice): The upside drivers in this dataset are a strong balance sheet, high reported margins, and a record-quarter headline. The valuation tradeoff is significant: a P/E (TTM) of 41 and EV/EBITDA of 39.2 sit at elevated levels against a 2.05% FCF yield, so the stock's price depends heavily on sustained earnings growth. The weak Whale 13F and Insider pillars mean the dataset does not show strong smart-money conviction behind the price. Taken together, the rating frames NVMI as a fundamentally sound business whose current valuation and weak positioning signals make it a cautious proposition on the rating's own terms.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$334.59$10.63B4134.439.28.160%1.38$266.43 - $615.9913%

Business

Nova Ltd. (NVMI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, Electronic Components industry. Per the profile, the company operates within Electronic Components with a market capitalization of $10.6B. The source data does not describe the company's specific products, customers, or revenue model, so how it makes money beyond the reported financials is not available in source data.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$880.6M$253.5M$259.2MN/A$217.9M$214.5M$469.0M
FY 2024$672.4M$187.5M$183.8MN/A$218.1M$157.8M$208.2M
FY 2023$517.9M$132.3M$136.3MN/A$100.2MN/A$1368.6M

Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $517.9M (FY 2023) to $880.6M (FY 2025), and net income rose from $136.3M to $259.2M over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 57.4%, operating margin 28.8%, and net margin 29.4%, with ROIC at 13%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 8.08 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.33. The FY 2023 debt figure of $1368.6M is markedly higher than the later periods, and the source does not explain the change.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Per the recent news feed, five items reference NVMI:

  • RISK WATCH (RED): "Why Nova (NVMI) Shares Are Falling Today" appears from both Yahoo Finance and TradingView, indicating recent price weakness.
  • RISK WATCH (RED): A marketscreener.com report, "Nova Shares Fall After Citigroup Downgrade," flags a downgrade as a negative catalyst.
  • MARKET WIRE (YELLOW): A GuruFocus item cites a GF Score of 97/100 alongside a 3.5% stock gain and an "undervalued" characterization; a Simply Wall St item suggests the stock may look fully priced. These two readings conflict.
  • CATALYST (GREEN): A Yahoo Finance item references a "Record Quarter" and a fair-value debate.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is listed as "NONE," with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Analyst View & Smart Money Ownership

Analyst consensus, price targets, and holder data are not available in source data. The analyst data and holders sections are both listed as NONE, so no Form 4, 13F, or Congressional trades are reported for this issuer in the source material. The news feed references a Citigroup downgrade, but the source does not provide its rating or target.

Open Questions

  • What drove the FY 2023 debt level of $1368.6M, and how was it reduced to $469.0M by FY 2025?
  • What are the EPS figures for each reported fiscal period, since all three are listed as N/A?
  • What is the FY 2023 cash balance, which is listed as N/A?
  • What were the specifics of the Citigroup downgrade, including the new rating and any price target?
  • What drives the divergence between the GuruFocus "undervalued" reading and the Simply Wall St "fully priced" reading?

NVMI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Nova Ltd. (NVMI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NVMI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NVMI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $312.24?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NVMI 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NVMI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $361.36 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is NVMI (D+ β€’ RQD 56/100) a Buy at $334.59?

Welcome to the NVMI (Nova Ltd.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 56/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Electronic Components. Bulls point to capital efficiency (13.0% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (41.0x trailing P/E). Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $257.63 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $334.59

Pump the brakes on NVMI β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on NVMI, but look at what you are paying: 41.0x trailing P/E with 57.4% gross margins. Unless Nova Ltd. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $421.58 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $334.59

NVMI cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on NVMI, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electronic Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $334.59 (52-wk range $266.43 - $615.99), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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