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SITC (59) REFI (48) AIV (47) ACRE (37) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$4.10 +3.54% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.12

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 35/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $210.3M
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NXDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NYSE: NXDT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.10 (+3.54% 1D, market cap $210.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NXDT ranks #981 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NXDT compare to SITC and REFI in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NXDT carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, SITC (SITE Centers Corp.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 53.1%, cap $195.7M) and REFI (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $226.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXDT?
β–Ό

Per NXDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001356115), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust generated $86.0M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), -$127.0M in net income, and $9.2M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.12 (+0.45%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) β€’ 10.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (35/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510035
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (11)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-10.2% Base Target
$6 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE NXDT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NXDT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±12.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (35/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY NXDT SCORES 35/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+11/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 10.7% FCF Margin ($9.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 3/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
43
Grade D$5.08-5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
40
Grade D$4.82+8.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
38
Grade E$5.21-21.3% Next Q
Current
35
Grade D-$4.10-8.5% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (43) β†’ D- (35)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NXDT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While NXDT currently carries a cautious 35/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.13) and Max Pain ($4.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.25.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NXDTβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œNXDT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 35%NO 65%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL β€’ FY 2025 (10-K)

How NXDT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$9.2M (10.7% FCF Margin)
Revenue$86.0MGross Profit $44.7M (52%)Cost of Sales $41.3MOp Profit $0 (0%)OpEx (R&D/SG&A) $44.7MNet Profit$0 (0%)Tax/Other $0

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

β–  Revenueβ–  Net Profitβ–  Free Cash Flow
FY23
Rev $63.3M
FY24
Rev $83.2M
FY25
Rev $86.0M
Fiscal YearRevenueGross MarginOp MarginNet ProfitFree Cash FlowROIC %
FY 2025$86.0M52%-1.6%-$127.0M$9.2M-0.2%
FY 2024$83.2M52%-5%-$56.6M-$11.7M-0.4%
FY 2023$63.3M52%18.3%-$117.2M-$24.3M-0.2%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NXDT)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of NXDT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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NXDT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -21.46%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $4.31H $4.31L $3.96C $4.10VOL 398.5K
RES: $5.36SUP: $3.81SMA50: $5.13SMA200: $4.95
$6.10$5.48$4.86$4.24$3.62RES $5.36SUP $3.81$4.102026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NXDT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ NXDT Butterfly Map β†’ + Track NXDT β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NXDT today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NXDT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NXDT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NXDT)

Financials Rank #981 of 1097 βš”οΈ SITC vs NXDT Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NXDT vs. SITC, REFI, AIV, ACRE)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) ranks #981 by composite RQD confidence (35/100, grade D-) and #874 by equity capitalization ($210.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and β€” gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with NXDT at 35/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
NXDT ACTIVE
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
D- 35/100 β€” β€” -0.2% +3.54% $210.3M Benchmark Subject
SITC
SITE Centers Corp.
C- 59/100 β€” β€” 53.1% -1.61% $195.7M /sitc-vs-nxdt β†’
REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.
D 48/100 6.4x β€” 11.7% +0.23% $226.5M /refi-vs-nxdt β†’
AIV
Apartment Investment and Management Company
D 47/100 β€” β€” 85.0% +4.46% $228.0M /aiv-vs-nxdt β†’
ACRE
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation
D- 37/100 β€” β€” -0.2% +1.79% $186.4M /acre-vs-nxdt β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001356115 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) reported GAAP revenue of $86.0M (+3.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $83.2M , and +35.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$127.0M, operating cash flow of $9.2M, and free cash flow of $9.2M (+178.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, NXDT closed FY2025 with $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $86.0M -$127.0M $9.2M $9.2M $1.07B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $83.2M -$56.6M -$11.7M -$11.7M $1.22B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $63.3M -$117.2M -$24.3M -$24.3M β€” β€”

3. NXDT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NXDT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NYSE: NXDT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 35/100 at a spot price of $4.10 (+3.54% 1D, market cap $210.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, NXDT ranks #981 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NXDT compare to SITC and REFI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NXDT carries a Roarable D- (35/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -0.2%. By comparison, SITC (SITE Centers Corp.) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 53.1%, cap $195.7M) and REFI (Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 11.7%, cap $226.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NXDT?

Per NXDT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001356115), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust generated $86.0M in revenue (+3.3% YoY), -$127.0M in net income, and $9.2M in free cash flow against $1.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NXDT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NXDT last traded at $4.10 (+3.54% on volume of 278,684 shares), positioning the stock -20.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.13) and -17.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.95). Across its 52-week range of $2.55 to $5.95, NXDT sits at the 45.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.9 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±12.4% ($3.59 to $4.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: NXDT RQD Cockpit NXDT 12M Forecast NXDT Earnings & Move NXDT Dividends & DRIP NXDT Insiders & 13F NXDT Whale Options NXDT Profit Sankey NXDT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 35/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

NXDT β€” NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 35/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.10 (+3.54% 1D, market capitalization $210.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -0.2%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of -1.6%, and free cash flow yield of 4.00%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, specifically Real Estate Investment Trusts..2B. β€” describes its specific products, customers, or revenue model beyond the sector and industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) reported $86.0M in annual revenue (up from $83.2M in FY2024, +3.3% YoY) and -$127.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($63.3M revenue, -$117.2M net income) through FY2025, NXDT scaled operating cash flow to $9.2M and free cash flow to $9.2M, backed by $1.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 35/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 4.00% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.55 – $5.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -1.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore β€” An investor should note that the only sector-level context available is the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification and the Beta of 1.0 in the market data.

  • Key Question #1: Can NXDT sustain or expand its -1.6% operating margin and -0.2% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $86.0M and free cash flow of $9.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is NXDT's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

NXDT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust (NXDT) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to NXDT Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

NXDT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $4.10?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON NXDT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on NXDT:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Institutional Buy-Side πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.55 (+14.9%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Positive free cash flow of $9.2M in FY 2025 and a 4% FCF yield provide cash generation that supports a 2.63% dividend yield.

Positive free cash flow of $9.2M in FY 2025 and a 4% FCF yield provide cash generation that supports a 2.63% dividend yield.. When you look under the hood at NXDT, Fundamental Cash Engine is 11/20 with 0.0% gross margins and -0.2% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (4/20) has been quietly accumulating below $5.95. My 12M target is $4.55.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 4/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $3.96 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.33 (-15.9%)
Spot @ $3.96

Net income was negative in every reported period and ROIC is -0.2%, while the RQD score of 36 reflects weak institutional and insider f

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on NXDT: Net income was negative in every reported period and ROIC is -0.2%, while the RQD score of 36 reflects weak institutional and insider flow.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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