ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / REFI
AIV (47) NXDT (35) BRT (35) SITC (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$8.86 +0.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.85

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $226.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on REFI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $8.86 (+0.23% 1D, market cap $226.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does REFI compare to AIV and NXDT in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $228.0M) and NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $210.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?
▼

Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $178.5M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $8.85 (-0.15%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 16.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510048
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D · Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (8)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target
$14 Bull$8 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE REFI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for REFI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY REFI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+14/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16.1% FCF Margin ($28.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
56
Grade C$9.11-0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
53
Grade C-$9.08+1.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$9.20-3.7% Next Q
Current
48
Grade D$8.86-5.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (56) → D (48)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a REFI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While REFI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.07) and Max Pain ($9.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.16.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $REFI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “REFI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE
33.830 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE
L: $9$8.86H: $13
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning on REFI

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

11.7% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 12.54% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
BEARISH (50)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (42)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 8/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like REFI
  • ✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring REFI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of REFI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
REFI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -25.92%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $8.96H $8.96L $8.84C $8.86VOL 111.6K
RES: $11.22SUP: $8.57SMA50: $10.07SMA200: $11.09
$12.99$11.84$10.70$9.55$8.40RES $11.22SUP $8.57$8.862026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

REFI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 REFI Butterfly Map → + Track REFI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-9.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REFI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for REFI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (REFI)

Financials Rank #704 of 1097 ⚔️ AIV vs REFI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (REFI vs. AIV, NXDT, BRT, SITC)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) ranks #704 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #862 by equity capitalization ($226.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with REFI at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
REFI ACTIVE
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.
D 48/100 6.4x — 11.7% +0.23% $226.5M Benchmark Subject
AIV
Apartment Investment and Management Company
D 47/100 — — 85.0% +4.46% $228.0M /aiv-vs-refi →
NXDT
NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust
D- 35/100 — — -0.2% +3.54% $210.3M /nxdt-vs-refi →
BRT
BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)
D- 35/100 — — -6.5% -0.62% $243.9M /brt-vs-refi →
SITC
SITE Centers Corp.
C- 59/100 — — 53.1% -1.61% $195.7M /sitc-vs-refi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001867949 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported GAAP revenue of $178.5M (-2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $182.8M , and +2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $36.0M, operating cash flow of $28.8M, and free cash flow of $28.8M (+24.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, REFI closed FY2025 with $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $178.5M $36.0M $28.8M $28.8M $424.9M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $182.8M $37.0M $23.2M $23.2M $435.1M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $174.2M $38.7M $28.4M $28.4M — —

3. REFI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is REFI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $8.86 (+0.23% 1D, market cap $226.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.

How does REFI compare to AIV and NXDT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $228.0M) and NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $210.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for REFI?

Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $178.5M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is REFI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

REFI last traded at $8.86 (+0.23% on volume of 184,431 shares), positioning the stock -12.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.07) and -20.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.09). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $13.49, REFI sits at the 2.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($8.32 to $9.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: REFI RQD Cockpit REFI 12M Forecast REFI Earnings & Move REFI Dividends & DRIP REFI Insiders & 13F REFI Whale Options REFI Profit Sankey REFI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 48/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

REFI — Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.86 (+0.23% 1D, market capitalization $226.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 12.54%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $226.5M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7% (free cash flow yield of 12.54%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported $178.5M in annual revenue (up from $182.8M in FY2024, -2.4% YoY) and $36.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($174.2M revenue, $38.7M net income) through FY2025, REFI scaled operating cash flow to $28.8M and free cash flow to $28.8M, backed by $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 48/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 12.54% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $8.76 – $13.49 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 6.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context available is the classification as Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts. The RQD macro pillar notes sector sensitivity but does not quantify it in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can REFI sustain or expand its — operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $178.5M and free cash flow of $28.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is REFI's 6.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

REFI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to REFI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

REFI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $8.86?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON REFI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on REFI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.96 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Low 6.4x TTM P/E with an 12.54% FCF yield and 11.7% ROIC indicates strong cash generation relative to the price.

Here is why I am bullish on REFI here at $8.84: Low 6.4x TTM P/E with an 12.54% FCF yield and 11.7% ROIC indicates strong cash generation relative to the price.. Compare REFI's 0.0% operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $8.40 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 6.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.90 (-21.9%)
Spot @ $8.84

A 3 of 20 whale-flow pillar and Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9 signal weak institutional support and financial quality, earning a D grade.

Careful chasing REFI at $8.84. A 3 of 20 whale-flow pillar and Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9 signal weak institutional support and financial quality, earning a D grade.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $6.90 on multiple compression.

LIVE TAPE