Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $8.86 (+0.23% 1D, market cap $226.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $228.0M) and NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $210.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $178.5M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 70% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 16.1% FCF Margin ($28.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
While REFI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.07) and Max Pain ($9.30) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $14.16.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) advanced +0.23% to $8.86, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($8.76 – $13.49). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
TradingKey report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GlobeNewswire report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Zacks Investment Research report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Traders Daily report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Traders Daily report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
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Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on REFI today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for REFI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) ranks #704 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #862 by equity capitalization ($226.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, REFI leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while AIV leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. SITC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with REFI at 48/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| REFI
ACTIVE
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. | D | 48/100 | 6.4x | — | 11.7% | +0.23% | $226.5M | Benchmark Subject |
| AIV Apartment Investment and Management Company | D | 47/100 | — | — | 85.0% | +4.46% | $228.0M | /aiv-vs-refi → |
| NXDT NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -0.2% | +3.54% | $210.3M | /nxdt-vs-refi → |
| BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD) | D- | 35/100 | — | — | -6.5% | -0.62% | $243.9M | /brt-vs-refi → |
| SITC SITE Centers Corp. | C- | 59/100 | — | — | 53.1% | -1.61% | $195.7M | /sitc-vs-refi → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported GAAP revenue of $178.5M (-2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $182.8M , and +2.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $36.0M, operating cash flow of $28.8M, and free cash flow of $28.8M (+24.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, REFI closed FY2025 with $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $178.5M | $36.0M | $28.8M | $28.8M | $424.9M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $182.8M | $37.0M | $23.2M | $23.2M | $435.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $174.2M | $38.7M | $28.4M | $28.4M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (NASDAQ: REFI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $8.86 (+0.23% 1D, market cap $226.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, REFI ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), REFI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, AIV (Apartment Investment and Management Company) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $228.0M) and NXDT (NexPoint Diversified Real Estate Trust) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.2%, cap $210.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, REFI leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while AIV leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
Per REFI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001867949), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $178.5M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), $36.0M in net income, and $28.8M in free cash flow against $424.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
REFI last traded at $8.86 (+0.23% on volume of 184,431 shares), positioning the stock -12.02% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.07) and -20.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.09). Across its 52-week range of $8.76 to $13.49, REFI sits at the 2.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($8.32 to $9.40).
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 48/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $8.86 (+0.23% 1D, market capitalization $226.5M).
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $226.5M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7% (free cash flow yield of 12.54%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) reported $178.5M in annual revenue (up from $182.8M in FY2024, -2.4% YoY) and $36.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($174.2M revenue, $38.7M net income) through FY2025, REFI scaled operating cash flow to $28.8M and free cash flow to $28.8M, backed by $424.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt.
The only sector context available is the classification as Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts. The RQD macro pillar notes sector sensitivity but does not quantify it in the source data.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
TradingKey report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
GlobeNewswire report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Zacks Investment Research report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Traders Daily report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
https://www.dars.gov.et/ report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Traders Daily report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
TradingKey report covering Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance Inc. (REFI) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Here is why I am bullish on REFI here at $8.84: Low 6.4x TTM P/E with an 12.54% FCF yield and 11.7% ROIC indicates strong cash generation relative to the price.. Compare REFI's 0.0% operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate Investment Trusts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $8.40 are getting bought.
@CreditSpread_Watch Fair point on 6.4x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
Careful chasing REFI at $8.84. A 3 of 20 whale-flow pillar and Piotroski F-Score of 3 of 9 signal weak institutional support and financial quality, earning a D grade.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $6.90 on multiple compression.
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