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Why OBE Stock advanced +0.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$10.45 +0.77% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.44

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $691.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OBE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (NYSE: OBE) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $10.45 (+0.77% 1D, market cap $691.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, OBE ranks #93 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OBE compare to GRNT and GPRK in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), OBE carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GRNT (Granite Ridge Resources Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $691.2M) and GPRK (Geopark Ltd) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $673.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBE?
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For Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #93 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $10.44 (-0.05%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C
Cash (12)Whales (13)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$15 Bull$11 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE OBE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OBE SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±9.4% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (22% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 11 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
68
Grade B-$11.51+2.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$11.82-0.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
63
Grade C+$11.79-11.4% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$10.45+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (68) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OBE Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, OBE faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.54) or 200D SMA ($10.25) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($10.54) toward Bear Floor ($8.22).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OBE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why OBE Stock advanced +0.77% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) advanced +0.77% to $10.45, trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($5.47 – $14.59). Solid steady margins (steady margins), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 55% of its 52-week range ($5.47 – $14.59) with RSI-14 at 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±9.4% around $10.45 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C- (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $19.4M annual free cash flow.
Live OBE Headlines & Catalysts
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Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OBE Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
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  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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OBE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -24.98%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $11.80H $11.80L $10.37C $10.45VOL 1.09M
RES: $16.35SUP: $10.46SMA50: $11.54SMA200: $10.25
$14.91$12.81$10.71$8.61$6.51RES $16.35SUP $10.46$10.452026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBE Butterfly Map → + Track OBE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBE)

Energy Rank #93 of 211 ⚔️ GRNT vs OBE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (OBE vs. GRNT, GPRK, VTS, WHK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) ranks #93 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #145 by equity capitalization ($691.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VTS leads on earnings valuation at 30.5x trailing P/E, while WHK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.4% ROIC and — gross margin. OBE currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OBE ACTIVE
Obsidian Energy Ltd.
C- 60/100 — — — +0.77% $691.9M Benchmark Subject
GRNT
Granite Ridge Resources Inc.
C- 60/100 31.3x — 3.8% -2.48% $691.2M /grnt-vs-obe →
GPRK
Geopark Ltd
D+ 55/100 — — — -0.48% $673.6M /gprk-vs-obe →
VTS
Vitesse Energy Inc.
C- 60/100 30.5x — 2.2% -10.38% $725.9M /vts-vs-obe →
WHK
WhiteHawk Minerals Corp (Class A)
D 51/100 — — 7.4% -0.16% $762.9M /whk-vs-obe →

2. OBE Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics

TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOT

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) operates in Oil & Gas Production (Energy) with an equity capitalization of $691.9M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.

3. OBE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Obsidian Energy Ltd. (NYSE: OBE) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $10.45 (+0.77% 1D, market cap $691.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, OBE ranks #93 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OBE compare to GRNT and GPRK in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), OBE carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, GRNT (Granite Ridge Resources Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 31.3x, ROIC 3.8%, cap $691.2M) and GPRK (Geopark Ltd) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $673.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VTS leads on earnings multiple (30.5x) while WHK leads on capital efficiency (7.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBE?

For Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity and sector rank #93 in Energy, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately and implied 5-year growth hurdle of 8.0%/yr. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OBE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBE last traded at $10.45 (+0.77% on volume of 638,073 shares), positioning the stock -9.45% below its 50-day simple moving average ($11.54) and +1.95% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.25). Across its 52-week range of $5.47 to $14.59, OBE sits at the 54.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.4% ($9.47 to $11.43).

Direct Sub-Reports: OBE RQD Cockpit OBE 12M Forecast OBE Earnings & Move OBE Dividends & DRIP OBE Insiders & 13F OBE Whale Options OBE Profit Sankey OBE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OBE — Obsidian Energy Ltd.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-11-03

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $10.45 (+0.77% 1D, market capitalization $691.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of —, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (13/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of N/A, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) is listed on the NYSE and operates in the Oil & Gas Production industry within the Energy sector. The profile identifies the company as an Energy issuer with a market capitalization of $0.8B.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Established market leader in Energy with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 13/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 13/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.47 – $14.59 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish any upstream supplier or downstream customer dependencies for OBE. Sector-level context is limited to the classification as Energy / Oil & Gas Production and the Simply Wall St headline on possible oil price spikes. An investor should watch the sensitivity of oil and gas production to commodity pricing, but the source does not quantify that linkage for OBE. No second-order bottleneck can be identified from the supplied data.

  • Key Question #1: Can OBE sustain or expand its — operating margin and — ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score N/A) toward the $14.59 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OBE's equity valuation to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OBE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Obsidian Energy Ltd. (OBE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OBE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OBE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $10.45?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OBE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OBE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.28 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet pillars are moderately sound (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) with Beta at 1.0, per the Roarable RQD rati

Balance-sheet pillars are moderately sound (Altman Z 2.5, Piotroski F 6/9, Debt/Equity 0.5) with Beta at 1.0, per the Roarable RQD rating.. When you look under the hood at OBE, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 0.0% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (13/20) has been quietly accumulating below $14.59. My 12M target is $14.28.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 60/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $11.80 and keeping dry powder in case we test $10.97.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $9.79 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $11.80

Valuation & margin reality check on OBE at $11.80 before chasing here

Valuation & margin reality check on OBE at $11.80 before chasing here. Look at the math on OBE: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for 0.0% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Oil & Gas Production demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $10.38 before getting long.

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