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Stock Ratings / Health Care / ONCY / options
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Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$0.40 -5.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.39

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $52.4M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is ONCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: ONCY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $0.40 (-5.97% 1D, market cap $52.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ONCY ranks #446 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does ONCY compare to TLPH and HYFT in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ONCY carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLPH (Talphera Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $52.4M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $52.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ONCY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ONCY leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONCY?
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Per ONCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001129928), Oncolytics Biotech Inc. generated $80.4M in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$28.8M in net income, and -$20.1M in free cash flow against $7.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.39 (-1.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510041
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (9)SEC (10)Macro (9)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.5% Base Target
$1 Bull$0 Base$0 Bear
📬 FREE ONCY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONCY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONCY SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
49
Grade D$0.49+2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
46
Grade D$0.50-8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
44
Grade D$0.46-13% Next Q
Current
41
Grade D-$0.40-7.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONCY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ONCY currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($0.65) and Max Pain ($0.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $1.37.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONCY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONCY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (ONCY)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for ONCY.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONCY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of ONCY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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ONCY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -56.52%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $0.43H $0.43L $0.40C $0.40VOL 848.0K
RES: $0.71SUP: $0.36SMA50: $0.65SMA200: $0.86
$1.23$1.01$0.78$0.56$0.33RES $0.71SUP $0.36$0.402026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-182026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ONCY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ONCY Butterfly Map → + Track ONCY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONCY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONCY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONCY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONCY)

Health Care Rank #446 of 1015 ⚔️ TLPH vs ONCY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (ONCY vs. TLPH, HYFT, XLO, RFL)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) ranks #446 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #733 by equity capitalization ($52.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ONCY leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while ONCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. HYFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 45/100 (D) compared with ONCY at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
ONCY ACTIVE
Oncolytics Biotech Inc.
D- 41/100 — — -35.0% -5.97% $52.4M Benchmark Subject
TLPH
Talphera Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -1.94% $52.4M /tlph-vs-oncy →
HYFT
MindWalk Holdings Corp.
D 45/100 — — — -2.65% $52.3M /hyft-vs-oncy →
XLO
Xilio Therapeutics Inc.
E 25/100 — — -35.0% -0.50% $52.6M /xlo-vs-oncy →
RFL
Rafael Holdings Inc. (Class B)
E 16/100 — — -35.0% -7.41% $52.2M /rfl-vs-oncy →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001129928 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) reported GAAP revenue of $80.4M (+12.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $71.5M ) , GAAP net income of -$28.8M, operating cash flow of -$20.1M, and free cash flow of -$20.1M (-0.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONCY closed FY2025 with $7.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $80.4M -$28.8M -$20.1M -$20.1M $7.6M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $71.5M -$22.8M -$19.9M -$20.1M $13.4M —

3. ONCY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ONCY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (NASDAQ: ONCY) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $0.40 (-5.97% 1D, market cap $52.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, ONCY ranks #446 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ONCY compare to TLPH and HYFT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), ONCY carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLPH (Talphera Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $52.4M) and HYFT (MindWalk Holdings Corp.) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $52.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ONCY leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while ONCY leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONCY?

Per ONCY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001129928), Oncolytics Biotech Inc. generated $80.4M in revenue (+12.5% YoY), -$28.8M in net income, and -$20.1M in free cash flow against $7.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ONCY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ONCY last traded at $0.40 (-5.97% on volume of 847,960 shares), positioning the stock -38.46% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.65) and -53.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($0.86). Across its 52-week range of $0.40 to $1.30, ONCY sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 21.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.45).

Direct Sub-Reports: ONCY RQD Cockpit ONCY 12M Forecast ONCY Earnings & Move ONCY Dividends & DRIP ONCY Insiders & 13F ONCY Whale Options ONCY Profit Sankey ONCY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 41/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

ONCY — Oncolytics Biotech Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 41/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $0.40 (-5.97% 1D, market capitalization $52.4M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Its market capitalization is $0.1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) reported $80.4M in annual revenue (up from $71.5M in FY2024, +12.5% YoY) and -$28.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2024 ($71.5M revenue, -$22.8M net income) through FY2025, ONCY scaled operating cash flow to -$20.1M and free cash flow to -$20.1M, backed by $7.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 41/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.40 – $1.30 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), ONCY carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can ONCY sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $80.4M and free cash flow of -$20.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is ONCY's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

ONCY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Oncolytics Biotech Inc. (ONCY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to ONCY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

ONCY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.40?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON ONCY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on ONCY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $0.51 (+18.6%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 12 of 20 in the RQD rating, and a pelareorep patent could extend into the late

Don't sleep on ONCY's setup in Health Care. Institutional accumulation and options positioning score 12 of 20 in the RQD rating, and a pelareorep patent could extend into the late 2040s.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (41/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 41/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $0.43 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.40.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.34 (-20.9%)
Spot @ $0.43

Negative ROIC of -35%, zero FCF yield, and cash falling from $11.1M to $5.2M, with insider conviction scoring only 5 of 20.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on ONCY: Negative ROIC of -35%, zero FCF yield, and cash falling from $11.1M to $5.2M, with insider conviction scoring only 5 of 20.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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