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Stock Ratings / Technology / OPXS / forecast
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Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.14 -0.97% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.15

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (29% profit margin, 30% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →
ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $63.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OPXS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $9.14 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $63.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #77 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $253.4M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $293.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?
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Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.15 (+0.07%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 20/20 (A+) • 15.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B- · Rk B-
Cash (20)Whales (3)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (19)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$18 Bull$10 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE OPXS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OPXS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OPXS SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+20/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.6% FCF Margin ($6.4M FCF) & 29.2% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
78
Grade A-$9.92-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
75
Grade B+$9.85-4.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
73
Grade B$9.42-3% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$9.14+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A- (78) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OPXS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, OPXS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 26.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.08) or 200D SMA ($11.85) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.63) toward Bear Floor ($7.49).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OPXS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OPXS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OPXS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.14: 1094.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.49
$8,195
$-1,805 (-18.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.63
$10,536
+$536 (+5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.15
$19,858
+$9,858 (+98.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$1074%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OPXS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
OPXS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.53%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $9.23H $9.23L $9.14C $9.14VOL 8.6K
RES: $9.85SUP: $9.07SMA50: $10.08SMA200: $11.85
$14.45$12.99$11.52$10.05$8.58RES $9.85SUP $9.07$9.142026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OPXS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OPXS Butterfly Map → + Track OPXS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +21.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OPXS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OPXS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OPXS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OPXS)

Technology Rank #77 of 714 ⚔️ OPTX vs OPXS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (OPXS vs. OPTX, RELL, DCM, MSAI)

Industry: Electronic Components (21 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) ranks #77 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #548 by equity capitalization ($63.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OPXS leads on earnings valuation at 12.5x trailing P/E, while OPXS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 29.8% ROIC and 29.2% gross margin. OPXS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OPXS ACTIVE
Optex Systems Holdings Inc.
B- 70/100 12.5x 29.2% 29.8% -0.97% $63.6M Benchmark Subject
OPTX
Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 42/100 — 23.3% -2.8% -13.84% $253.4M /optx-vs-opxs →
RELL
Richardson Electronics Ltd.
D+ 54/100 48.8x 31.2% 4.1% -5.69% $293.7M /rell-vs-opxs →
DCM
DeFi Capital Markets Inc.
D- 43/100 — 16.6% -35.0% -8.08% $9.3M /dcm-vs-opxs →
MSAI
MultiSensor AI Holdings Inc.
E 19/100 — — -35.0% -4.82% $7.2M /msai-vs-opxs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-28 • CIK 0001397016

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) reported GAAP revenue of $41.3M (+21.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $34.0M , and +61.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $5.1M, operating cash flow of $6.9M, and free cash flow of $6.4M (+485.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OPXS closed FY2025 with $30.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 10.17, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-28 $41.3M $5.1M $6.9M $6.4M $30.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-29 $34.0M $3.8M $1.8M $1.1M $24.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-10-01 $25.7M $2.3M -$296.0K -$296.0K — —

3. OPXS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OPXS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $9.14 (-0.97% 1D, market cap $63.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 20/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, OPXS ranks #77 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OPXS compare to OPTX and RELL in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Electronic Components), OPXS carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.5x, gross margin of 29.2%, and ROIC of 29.8%. By comparison, OPTX (Syntec Optics Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (42/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.8%, cap $253.4M) and RELL (Richardson Electronics Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 48.8x, ROIC 4.1%, cap $293.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OPXS leads on earnings multiple (12.5x) while OPXS leads on capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OPXS?

Per OPXS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-28, CIK 0001397016), Optex Systems Holdings Inc. generated $41.3M in revenue (+21.6% YoY), $5.1M in net income, and $6.4M in free cash flow against $30.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (29% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OPXS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OPXS last traded at $9.14 (-0.97% on volume of 8,619 shares), positioning the stock -9.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.08) and -22.87% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.85). Across its 52-week range of $9.04 to $17.29, OPXS sits at the 1.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.3 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($8.58 to $9.70).

OPXS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is OPXS's 12-month stock price target?

Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $9.63 (+5.4% from $9.14), with a bull-case target of $18.15 and a bear-case floor of $7.49.

Is OPXS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates OPXS B- (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 70/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: OPXS RQD Cockpit OPXS 12M Forecast OPXS Earnings & Move OPXS Dividends & DRIP OPXS Insiders & 13F OPXS Whale Options OPXS Profit Sankey OPXS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

OPXS — Optex Systems Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:46:03Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

The Roarable RQD rating is 70, graded B-, with the verdict "Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation" (per the Roarable RQD rating). The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 20/20 (ROIC 29.8%; FCF yield 10.02%); Whale 13F Flow at 3/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 19/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 18/20 (Altman Z 10.17; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the rating's strength lies in cash generation and balance-sheet quality, while its weakest pillar is institutional flow at 3/20, which means the "accumulation" in the verdict label is not strongly reflected in the 13F pillar. The macro pillar at 10/20 signals that the stock's exposure to broader market conditions is not a clear tailwind. Upside drivers cited in the data are the high ROIC and FCF yield; valuation tradeoffs are reflected in P/E (TTM) of 12.5 and forward P/E of 10.5 against a 52-week range of $9.04 - $17.38, with the current price of 9.23 near the low end of that range. Investors should weigh that the rating is a model output, not a recommendation.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
9.23$64.2M12.510.57.70.740%1.0$9.04 - $17.3829.8%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$41.3M$7.1M$5.1MN/A$6.4M$5.8MN/A
FY 2024$34.0M$4.8M$3.8MN/A$1.1M$2.5MN/A
FY 2023$25.7M$2.8M$2.3MN/A$-0.3MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $25.7M in FY 2023 to $41.3M in FY 2025, and net income rose from $2.3M to $5.1M over the same span. Per the market data, ROIC is 29.8%, net margin is 12.5%, and FCF yield is 10.02%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 10.17, the Piotroski F-Score is 8 out of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Debt values are not reported in the financials, so balance-sheet leverage beyond the Debt/Equity ratio cannot be assessed from source data.

Open Questions

  • What are the company's principal products, customers, and contract concentration? The source data describes only sector and industry.
  • What is the reported total debt and the composition of the balance sheet, given that debt fields are N/A?
  • Why does the RQD whale 13F pillar score only 3/20 when the verdict label describes institutional accumulation?
  • What drove the reported 24% three-month decline, and is it tied to fundamentals or sentiment?
  • What are the EPS figures for each reported fiscal year, since EPS is listed as N/A in the financials?

OPXS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Optex Systems Holdings Inc. (OPXS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OPXS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OPXS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.14?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OPXS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OPXS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $10.89 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is OPXS (B- • RQD 70/100) a Buy at $9.23?

Welcome to the OPXS (Optex Systems Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 70/100 (Roarable Buy — Sound Institutional Accumulation) in Electronic Components. Bulls point to capital efficiency (29.8% ROIC), while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.48 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $9.23

Pump the brakes on OPXS — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on OPXS, but look at what you are paying: 12.5x trailing P/E with 29.2% gross margins. Unless Optex Systems Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $11.26 (+22.0%)
Spot @ $9.23

OPXS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on OPXS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electronic Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $9.23 (52-wk range $9.04 - $17.38), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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