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OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$30.02 -0.66% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.93

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.03B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on OSW Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is OSW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: OSW) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $30.02 (-0.66% 1D, market cap $3.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, OSW ranks #170 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does OSW compare to HGV and PK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), OSW carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 42.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 34.3x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $2.91B) and PK (Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PLNT leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while PLNT leads on capital efficiency (19.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSW?
▼

Per OSW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001758488), OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited generated $961.0M in revenue (+7.4% YoY), $71.6M in net income, and $83.5M in free cash flow against $707.1M in total assets and $84.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $29.93 (-0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 8.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B- · Rk C+
Cash (16)Whales (15)SEC (16)Macro (11)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5% Base Target
$37 Bull$32 Base$25 Bear
📬 FREE OSW RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OSW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OSW SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 8.7% FCF Margin ($83.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 12.49 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 9 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$24.13-0.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$23.97+4.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$24.95+20.3% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$30.02+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OSW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, OSW faces multiple-compression risk if 42.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.93) or 200D SMA ($24.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($31.51) toward Bear Floor ($24.58).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OSW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OSW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your OSW Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $30.02: 333.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $24.58
$8,188
$-1,812 (-18.1%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $31.51
$10,496
+$496 (+5.0%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $37.18
$12,385
+$2,385 (+23.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$3569%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$2858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OSW Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
OSW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +27.85%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $30.10H $30.22L $30.02C $30.02VOL 1.74M
RES: $30.79SUP: $20.23SMA50: $23.93SMA200: $24.01
$31.43$28.66$25.89$23.12$20.35RES $30.79SUP $20.23$30.022026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OSW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OSW Butterfly Map → + Track OSW →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
32.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OSW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OSW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OSW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OSW)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #170 of 1009 ⚔️ HGV vs OSW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (OSW vs. HGV, PK, SHO, PLNT)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) ranks #170 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #355 by equity capitalization ($3.03B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PLNT leads on earnings valuation at 18.4x trailing P/E, while PLNT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.1% ROIC and 82.6% gross margin. PLNT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with OSW at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
OSW ACTIVE
OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited
C+ 69/100 42.7x — 10.6% -0.66% $3.03B Benchmark Subject
HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
D 51/100 34.3x — 6.3% +6.66% $2.91B /hgv-vs-osw →
PK
Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.
D 46/100 — — -0.9% +1.45% $3.34B /pk-vs-osw →
SHO
Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc. Sunstone Hotel Investors Inc.
C+ 66/100 — — — +0.55% $2.38B /sho-vs-osw →
PLNT
Planet Fitness Inc.
B- 70/100 18.4x 82.6% 19.1% +3.86% $4.03B /plnt-vs-osw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001758488 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) reported GAAP revenue of $961.0M (+7.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $895.0M , and +21.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $71.6M, operating cash flow of $83.5M, and free cash flow of $83.5M (+6.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, OSW closed FY2025 with $707.1M in total assets against $84.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 12.49, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $961.0M $71.6M $83.5M $83.5M $707.1M $84.0M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $895.0M $72.9M $78.8M $78.8M $746.4M $93.6M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $794.0M -$3.0M $63.4M $63.4M — —

3. OSW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OSW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (NASDAQ: OSW) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $30.02 (-0.66% 1D, market cap $3.03B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, OSW ranks #170 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OSW compare to HGV and PK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), OSW carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 42.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.6%. By comparison, HGV (Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 34.3x, ROIC 6.3%, cap $2.91B) and PK (Park Hotels & Resorts Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.9%, cap $3.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PLNT leads on earnings multiple (18.4x) while PLNT leads on capital efficiency (19.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OSW?

Per OSW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001758488), OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited generated $961.0M in revenue (+7.4% YoY), $71.6M in net income, and $83.5M in free cash flow against $707.1M in total assets and $84.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OSW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OSW last traded at $30.02 (-0.66% on volume of 2,383,805 shares), positioning the stock +25.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.93) and +25.03% above its 200-day simple moving average ($24.01). Across its 52-week range of $19.06 to $30.76, OSW sits at the 93.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 83.7 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.0% ($27.92 to $32.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: OSW RQD Cockpit OSW 12M Forecast OSW Earnings & Move OSW Dividends & DRIP OSW Insiders & 13F OSW Whale Options OSW Profit Sankey OSW News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

OSW — OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $30.02 (-0.66% 1D, market capitalization $3.03B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 8.5%, and free cash flow yield of 2.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 12.49, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.15x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Hotels/Resorts industry. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $961.0M. Per the market data, the operating margin was 8.5% and the net margin was 7.5%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) reported $961.0M in annual revenue (up from $895.0M in FY2024, +7.4% YoY) and $71.6M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($794.0M revenue, -$3.0M net income) through FY2025, OSW scaled operating cash flow to $83.5M and free cash flow to $83.5M, backed by $707.1M in total assets against $84.0M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.06 – $30.76 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Priced at 43x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter. Investors must weigh 42.7x trailing P/E and 38.3x EV/EBITDA against 8.5% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Hotels/Resorts (Consumer Discretionary), OSW carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can OSW sustain or expand its 8.5% operating margin and 10.6% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $961.0M and free cash flow of $83.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $84.0M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is OSW's 39.7x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

OSW Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for OneSpaWorld Holdings Limited (OSW) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to OSW Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

OSW Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $30.02?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON OSW 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on OSW:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $36.57 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, OSW combines a 10.6% ROIC and a 12.49 Altman Z-Score with 0.15 Debt/Equity, indicating a low-leverage business with

Per the RQD rating, OSW combines a 10.6% ROIC and a 12.49 Altman Z-Score with 0.15 Debt/Equity, indicating a low-leverage business with solid returns.. When you look under the hood at OSW, Fundamental Cash Engine is 16/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 10.6% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (15/20) has been quietly accumulating below $30.76. My 12M target is $36.57.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@DeepValue_CFA Agree on the RQD 69/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $30.22 and keeping dry powder in case we test $28.10.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $22.97 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $30.22

Per the market data, the stock trades at a 42.7 P/E (TTM) and 38.3 EV/EBITDA against a 2.73% FCF yield, leaving valuation dependent on

Fading this rally in OSW at $30.22. Per the market data, the stock trades at a 42.7 P/E (TTM) and 38.3 EV/EBITDA against a 2.73% FCF yield, leaving valuation dependent on growth expectations.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $30.22 (52-wk range $19.06–$30.76), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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