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Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.15 -0.94% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.14

Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $272.8M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PACK Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PACK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (NYSE: PACK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $3.15 (-0.94% 1D, market cap $272.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PACK ranks #777 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PACK compare to OI and GPK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), PACK carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.3%, and ROIC of -2.2%. By comparison, OI (O-I Glass Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.0%, cap $788.2M) and GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Company) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $2.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while SON leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PACK?
▼

Per PACK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712463), Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) generated $332.7M in revenue (+5.5% YoY), -$38.3M in net income, and $23.1M in free cash flow against $1.12B in total assets and $396.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.14 (-0.36%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 6.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510036
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-
Cash (8)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (11)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.8% Base Target
$8 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE PACK RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PACK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PACK SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+11/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 55% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.9% FCF Margin ($23.1M FCF) & 39.3% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$3.53-4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
41
Grade D$3.39+17.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
39
Grade E$3.97-20.7% Next Q
Current
36
Grade D-$3.15-8.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PACK Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PACK currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($4.00) and Max Pain ($3.31) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $8.20.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.96% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PACK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PACK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PACK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.15: 3174.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.22
$7,048
$-2,952 (-29.5%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.84
$9,016
$-984 (-9.8%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $8.20
$26,032
+$16,032 (+160.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$869%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$358%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PACK)

  • ✓Walkthrough of PACK's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PACK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -46.70%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $3.40H $3.40L $3.15C $3.15VOL 829.6K
RES: $3.78SUP: $2.99SMA50: $4.00SMA200: $5.11
$8.14$6.76$5.38$4.00$2.62RES $3.78SUP $2.99$3.152026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PACK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PACK Butterfly Map → + Track PACK →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PACK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PACK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PACK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PACK)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #777 of 1009 ⚔️ OI vs PACK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PACK vs. OI, GPK, DSY, SON)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) ranks #777 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #653 by equity capitalization ($272.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SON leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while SON leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and 20.9% gross margin. GPK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 54/100 (D+) compared with PACK at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PACK ACTIVE
Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A)
D- 36/100 — 39.3% -2.2% -0.94% $272.8M Benchmark Subject
OI
O-I Glass Inc.
D- 37/100 — 17.3% -10.0% +1.56% $788.2M /oi-vs-pack →
GPK
Graphic Packaging Holding Company
D+ 54/100 5.9x 18.2% 7.8% +4.25% $2.65B /gpk-vs-pack →
DSY
Big Tree Cloud Holdings Limited (Class A)
E 33/100 — 53.8% — +2.20% $15.1M /dsy-vs-pack →
SON
Sonoco Products Company
D+ 52/100 4.9x 20.9% 11.4% +0.50% $4.94B /son-vs-pack →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712463 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) reported GAAP revenue of $332.7M (+5.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $315.5M , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$38.3M, operating cash flow of $23.1M, and free cash flow of $23.1M (-44.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, PACK closed FY2025 with $1.12B in total assets against $396.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.37, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $332.7M -$38.3M $23.1M $23.1M $1.12B $396.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $315.5M -$21.5M $41.4M $41.4M $1.10B $400.8M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $284.8M -$27.1M $52.6M $52.6M — —

3. PACK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PACK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (NYSE: PACK) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $3.15 (-0.94% 1D, market cap $272.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 11/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PACK ranks #777 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PACK compare to OI and GPK in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), PACK carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 39.3%, and ROIC of -2.2%. By comparison, OI (O-I Glass Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.0%, cap $788.2M) and GPK (Graphic Packaging Holding Company) posts a D+ grade (54/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 7.8%, cap $2.65B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SON leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while SON leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PACK?

Per PACK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712463), Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) generated $332.7M in revenue (+5.5% YoY), -$38.3M in net income, and $23.1M in free cash flow against $1.12B in total assets and $396.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PACK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PACK last traded at $3.15 (-0.94% on volume of 1,707,347 shares), positioning the stock -21.25% below its 50-day simple moving average ($4.00) and -38.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.11). Across its 52-week range of $3.05 to $7.81, PACK sits at the 2.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.76 to $3.54).

Direct Sub-Reports: PACK RQD Cockpit PACK 12M Forecast PACK Earnings & Move PACK Dividends & DRIP PACK Insiders & 13F PACK Whale Options PACK Profit Sankey PACK News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 36/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PACK — Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 36/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $3.15 (-0.94% 1D, market capitalization $272.8M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -2.2%, gross margin of 39.3%, operating margin of -7.3%, and free cash flow yield of 7.92%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (11/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.37, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.74x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry,. The sector and industry classification is the primary descriptor available in the source data. Specific product lines, customer segments, and revenue mix are — The company's reported revenue appears in the financial trend section below. The gross margin of 39.3% per the market data indicates the company retains a portion of revenue after cost of goods sold.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) reported $332.7M in annual revenue (up from $315.5M in FY2024, +5.5% YoY) and -$38.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($284.8M revenue, -$27.1M net income) through FY2025, PACK scaled operating cash flow to $23.1M and free cash flow to $23.1M, backed by $1.12B in total assets against $396.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 36/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 7.92% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.05 – $7.81 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation against -7.3% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or proprietary signals are mapped. The butterfly_links and proprietary_signals fields are empty. Upstream supplier relationships, downstream customer concentration, and 2nd-order bottlenecks are — The sector classification (Consumer Discretionary / Containers/Packaging) is the only structural context available. A prospective investor should monitor whether the third-quarter loss and debt concerns referenced in the news wire propagate into refinancing terms, given reported debt of $396.4M against cash of $63.

  • Key Question #1: Can PACK sustain or expand its -7.3% operating margin and -2.2% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $332.7M and free cash flow of $23.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $396.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PACK's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PACK Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Ranpak Holdings Corp (Class A) (PACK) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PACK Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PACK Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.15?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PACK 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PACK:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.78 (+18.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 7.92% FCF yield and 22.7% automation revenue growth suggest cash generation and a growth segment could support a recovery if losses

Don't sleep on PACK's setup in Consumer Discretionary. The 7.92% FCF yield and 22.7% automation revenue growth suggest cash generation and a growth segment could support a recovery if losses narrow.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (36/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Containers/Packaging. If gross margin (39.3%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.61 (-17.9%)
Spot @ $3.18

A 0.37 Altman Z-Score, -2.2% ROIC, and $396.4M debt against $63.0M cash signal balance-sheet strain amid repeated losses and a Q3 miss.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on PACK: A 0.37 Altman Z-Score, -2.2% ROIC, and $396.4M debt against $63.0M cash signal balance-sheet strain amid repeated losses and a Q3 miss.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Containers/Packaging triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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