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Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$71.28 -1.22% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.29

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 78/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $3.62B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PARR Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PARR) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $71.28 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $3.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, PARR ranks #8 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PARR compare to BTE and HP in the Energy sector?
▼

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), PARR carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.8%. By comparison, BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.40B) and HP (Helmerich & Payne Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $3.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PARR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while PARR leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PARR?
▼

Per PARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000821483), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. generated $7.46B in revenue (-6.4% YoY), $369.4M in net income, and $296.5M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $797.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $71.29 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 17/20 (A-) • 4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 78/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 10% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.6% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+
025507510078
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk A-
Cash (17)Whales (10)SEC (16)Macro (17)CEO (18)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+9% Base Target
$95 Bull$78 Base$58 Bear
📬 FREE PARR RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PARR)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (78/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PARR SCORES 78/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+17/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 4% FCF Margin ($296.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-10 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
86
Grade A$88.67-4.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
83
Grade A$84.70-12.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
81
Grade A-$73.79-3.4% Next Q
Current
78
Grade B+$71.28+7.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: A (86) → B+ (78)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PARR Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 78/100 (B+) score, PARR faces multiple-compression risk if 9.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($81.24) or 200D SMA ($64.74) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($77.70) toward Bear Floor ($58.45).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PARR• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PARR Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 78%NO 22%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (PARR)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for PARR.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PARR & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PARR
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PARR // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +3.01%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-04O $76.24H $76.24L $71.28C $71.28VOL 1.07M
RES: $93.31SUP: $81.85SMA50: $81.24SMA200: $64.74
$94.13$80.09$66.04$52.00$37.95RES $93.31SUP $81.85$71.282026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PARR Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PARR Butterfly Map → + Track PARR →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-1.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PARR today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PARR. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PARR today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PARR)

Energy Rank #8 of 211 ⚔️ BTE vs PARR Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Energy Peer Comparison (PARR vs. BTE, HP, CPK, CRK)

Industry: Oil & Gas Production (106 Tracked Issuers)

Across 211 tracked Energy securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) ranks #8 by composite RQD confidence (78/100, grade B+) and #99 by equity capitalization ($3.62B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PARR leads on earnings valuation at 9.9x trailing P/E, while PARR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PARR currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 78/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PARR ACTIVE
Par Pacific Holdings Inc.
B+ 78/100 9.9x — 19.8% -1.22% $3.62B Benchmark Subject
BTE
Baytex Energy Corp
B- 70/100 32.8x — 9.9% -0.21% $3.40B /bte-vs-parr →
HP
Helmerich & Payne Inc.
C 62/100 — — 0.1% -2.47% $3.88B /hp-vs-parr →
CPK
Chesapeake Utilities Corporation
D+ 58/100 23.3x — 6.9% -0.89% $3.36B /cpk-vs-parr →
CRK
Comstock Resources Inc.
D 46/100 10.8x — 9.4% -1.56% $4.13B /crk-vs-parr →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000821483 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) reported GAAP revenue of $7.46B (-6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.97B , and -9.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $369.4M, operating cash flow of $445.3M, and free cash flow of $296.5M (+672.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PARR closed FY2025 with $3.83B in total assets against $797.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.78, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $7.46B $369.4M $445.3M $296.5M $3.83B $797.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.97B -$33.3M $83.8M -$51.8M $3.83B $1.11B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $8.23B $728.6M $579.2M $579.2M — —

3. PARR Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PARR stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (NYSE: PARR) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 78/100 at a spot price of $71.28 (-1.22% 1D, market cap $3.62B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 17/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 17/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 18/20. Across 211 tracked Energy issuers, PARR ranks #8 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PARR compare to BTE and HP in the Energy sector?

Within the Energy sector (Oil & Gas Production), PARR carries a Roarable B+ (78/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.9x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 19.8%. By comparison, BTE (Baytex Energy Corp) holds a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $3.40B) and HP (Helmerich & Payne Inc.) posts a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.1%, cap $3.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PARR leads on earnings multiple (9.9x) while PARR leads on capital efficiency (19.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PARR?

Per PARR's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000821483), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. generated $7.46B in revenue (-6.4% YoY), $369.4M in net income, and $296.5M in free cash flow against $3.83B in total assets and $797.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PARR trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PARR last traded at $71.28 (-1.22% on volume of 1,086,422 shares), positioning the stock -12.26% below its 50-day simple moving average ($81.24) and +10.10% above its 200-day simple moving average ($64.74). Across its 52-week range of $34.37 to $90.74, PARR sits at the 65.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($62.73 to $79.83).

Direct Sub-Reports: PARR RQD Cockpit PARR 12M Forecast PARR Earnings & Move PARR Dividends & DRIP PARR Insiders & 13F PARR Whale Options PARR Profit Sankey PARR News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 78/100 (B+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PARR — Par Pacific Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 78/100, corresponding to a B+ letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $71.28 (-1.22% 1D, market capitalization $3.62B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (17/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 19.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 7.2%, and free cash flow yield of 8.07%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (10/20) + Insider Conviction (18/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (17/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.78, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.53x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Energy sector, classified under Oil & Gas Production, with a market capitalization of $3.7B. Its reported revenue of $7.46B for FY 2025 indicates a large-scale operation. Operating margin is 7.2% and net margin is 4.9%.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) reported $7.46B in annual revenue (up from $7.97B in FY2024, -6.4% YoY) and $369.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($8.23B revenue, $728.6M net income) through FY2025, PARR scaled operating cash flow to $445.3M and free cash flow to $296.5M, backed by $3.83B in total assets against $797.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B+ • RQD 78/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 17/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 10/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $34.37 – $90.74 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 9.9x trailing P/E and 6.5x EV/EBITDA against 7.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish upstream suppliers, downstream customers, or sector correlations beyond the Energy/Oil & Gas Production classification. Investors should note that the graph provides no basis for identifying 2nd-order bottlenecks from the provided materials.

  • Key Question #1: Can PARR sustain or expand its 7.2% operating margin and 19.8% ROIC against Oil & Gas Production peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $7.46B and free cash flow of $296.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $797.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PARR's 9.2x forward P/E multiple to Energy capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PARR Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Par Pacific Holdings Inc. (PARR) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PARR Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PARR Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $71.28?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PARR 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PARR:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $92.25 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trailing P/E of 9.9 and ROIC of 19.8% combined with an RQD insider-conviction pillar of 18/20 suggest strong cash returns priced at a m

Trailing P/E of 9.9 and ROIC of 19.8% combined with an RQD insider-conviction pillar of 18/20 suggest strong cash returns priced at a modest multiple.. When you look under the hood at PARR, Fundamental Cash Engine is 17/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 19.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (10/20) has been quietly accumulating below $90.74. My 12M target is $92.25.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 78/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $76.24 and keeping dry powder in case we test $70.90.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $60.99 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $76.24

Revenue fell from $8.23B in FY 2023 to $7.46B in FY 2025, and a GuruFocus item reports shares down 3.8% with the stock still viewed

Careful chasing PARR at $76.24. Revenue fell from $8.23B in FY 2023 to $7.46B in FY 2025, and a GuruFocus item reports shares down 3.8% with the stock still viewed as overvalued.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 7.2%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $60.99 on multiple compression.

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