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Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$266.04 +0.70% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $267.01

Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (83.2% gross margin, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $11.91B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PAYC Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PAYC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Paycom Software Inc. (NYSE: PAYC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $266.04 (+0.70% 1D, market cap $11.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, PAYC ranks #73 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PAYC compare to SAIL and HUBS in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PAYC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.9x, gross margin of 83.2%, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, SAIL (SailPoint Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.6%, cap $12.02B) and HUBS (HubSpot Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $11.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAYC leads on earnings multiple (25.9x) while PAYC leads on capital efficiency (11.7% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAYC?
▼

Per PAYC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001590955), Paycom Software Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (+8.9% YoY), $453.4M in net income, and $408.0M in free cash flow against $7.60B in total assets and $2.64B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (83.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $267.02 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 19.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510070
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk D+
Cash (15)Whales (18)SEC (11)Macro (12)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$331 Bull$280 Base$218 Bear
📬 FREE PAYC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PAYC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PAYC SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+18/20 pts (26% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±6% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 19.9% FCF Margin ($408.0M FCF) & 83.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 9 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$239.00+9.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$261.01+0.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
67
Grade B-$262.79+1.2% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$266.04+6.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PAYC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, PAYC faces multiple-compression risk if 25.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 80.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($237.75) or 200D SMA ($165.55) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($280.41) toward Bear Floor ($218.15).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PAYC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PAYC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PAYC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $266.04: 37.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $218.15
$8,200
$-1,800 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $280.41
$10,540
+$540 (+5.4%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $330.88
$12,437
+$2,437 (+24.4%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$29274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$31169%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$24958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PAYC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PAYC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +101.19%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $260.7H $266.0L $260.7C $266.0VOL 668.8K
RES: $282.1SUP: $246.3SMA50: $237.8SMA200: $165.6
$286.0$241.3$196.6$151.8$107.1RES $282.1SUP $246.3$266.02026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PAYC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PAYC Butterfly Map → + Track PAYC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
19.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PAYC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PAYC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PAYC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PAYC)

Technology Rank #73 of 715 ⚔️ SAIL vs PAYC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (PAYC vs. SAIL, HUBS, FROG, FIG)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) ranks #73 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #137 by equity capitalization ($11.91B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PAYC leads on earnings valuation at 25.9x trailing P/E, while PAYC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.7% ROIC and 83.2% gross margin. PAYC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PAYC ACTIVE
Paycom Software Inc.
B- 70/100 25.9x 83.2% 11.7% +0.70% $11.91B Benchmark Subject
SAIL
SailPoint Inc.
C 65/100 — 64.5% -3.6% -8.88% $12.02B /sail-vs-payc →
HUBS
HubSpot Inc.
C 65/100 — 83.8% 0.3% -0.59% $11.71B /hubs-vs-payc →
FROG
JFrog Ltd.
C 64/100 — 76.8% -7.2% -9.83% $11.64B /frog-vs-payc →
FIG
Figma Inc.
D+ 57/100 — 82.4% -35.0% +2.54% $11.54B /fig-vs-payc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001590955 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) reported GAAP revenue of $2.05B (+8.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.88B , and +21.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $453.4M, operating cash flow of $678.9M, and free cash flow of $408.0M (+19.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, PAYC closed FY2025 with $7.60B in total assets against $2.64B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.21, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.05B $453.4M $678.9M $408.0M $7.60B $2.64B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.88B $502.0M $533.9M $341.0M $5.86B $1.93B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.69B $340.8M $485.0M $408.8M $6.46B $1.51B

3. PAYC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PAYC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Paycom Software Inc. (NYSE: PAYC) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $266.04 (+0.70% 1D, market cap $11.91B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 18/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, PAYC ranks #73 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PAYC compare to SAIL and HUBS in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PAYC carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.9x, gross margin of 83.2%, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, SAIL (SailPoint Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.6%, cap $12.02B) and HUBS (HubSpot Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $11.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PAYC leads on earnings multiple (25.9x) while PAYC leads on capital efficiency (11.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PAYC?

Per PAYC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001590955), Paycom Software Inc. generated $2.05B in revenue (+8.9% YoY), $453.4M in net income, and $408.0M in free cash flow against $7.60B in total assets and $2.64B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (83.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PAYC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PAYC last traded at $266.04 (+0.70% on volume of 807,192 shares), positioning the stock +11.90% above its 50-day simple moving average ($237.75) and +60.70% above its 200-day simple moving average ($165.55). Across its 52-week range of $104.90 to $275.22, PAYC sits at the 94.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.0% ($250.08 to $282.00).

Direct Sub-Reports: PAYC RQD Cockpit PAYC 12M Forecast PAYC Earnings & Move PAYC Dividends & DRIP PAYC Insiders & 13F PAYC Whale Options PAYC Profit Sankey PAYC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 70/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PAYC — Paycom Software Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $266.04 (+0.70% 1D, market capitalization $11.91B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7%, gross margin of 83.2%, operating margin of 27.6%, and free cash flow yield of 3.47%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (18/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.25x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 2.21, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.42x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Paycom Software Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) reported $2.05B in annual revenue (up from $1.88B in FY2024, +8.9% YoY) and $453.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.69B revenue, $340.8M net income) through FY2025, PAYC scaled operating cash flow to $678.9M and free cash flow to $408.0M, backed by $7.60B in total assets against $2.64B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 70/100): Strong cash generator (83.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 18/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $104.90 – $275.22 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 25.9x trailing P/E and 17.4x EV/EBITDA against 27.6% operating margins and a 1.25x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The only sector context is the Technology / Prepackaged Software classification and the beta of 1.25 per the market data, which suggests amplified moves relative to the broader market.

  • Key Question #1: Can PAYC sustain or expand its 27.6% operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $2.05B and free cash flow of $408.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $2.64B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PAYC's 24.1x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.25x)?

PAYC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Paycom Software Inc. (PAYC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PAYC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PAYC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $266.04?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PAYC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PAYC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $346.10 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Per the RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 18/20, the strongest pillar, indicating institutional accumulation and options pos

Don't sleep on PAYC's setup in Technology. Per the RQD rating, the Whale 13F Flow pillar scores 18/20, the strongest pillar, indicating institutional accumulation and options positioning.. Beta of 1.25 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (70/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@FadeTheHype Shorting a 18/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $264.20 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Technology.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $208.72 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $264.20

Per the RQD rating and market data, Debt/Equity of 1.42 and reported debt rising to $2.64B, alongside FY 2025 net income falling belo

Fading this rally in PAYC at $264.20. Per the RQD rating and market data, Debt/Equity of 1.42 and reported debt rising to $2.64B, alongside FY 2025 net income falling below FY 2024, weaken the balance sheet and earnings trend.. With a beta of 1.25 and the stock sitting at $264.20 (52-wk range $104.90–$275.22), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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