ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Technology / PD / forecast
ALKT (31) RDVT (68) OPRA (45) GTM (52) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

PagerDuty Inc. (PD) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$16.71 -1.36% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.64

PagerDuty Inc. (PD) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.33B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE: PD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $16.71 (-1.36% 1D, market cap $1.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, PD ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PD compare to ALKT and RDVT in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PD carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.9x, gross margin of 84.9%, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, ALKT (Alkami Technology Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.2%, cap $1.33B) and RDVT (Red Violet Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 98.2x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PD leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while RDVT leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PD?
▼

Per PD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001568100), PagerDuty Inc. generated $492.5M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $172.7M in net income, and $111.9M in free cash flow against $990.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.64 (-0.43%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 22.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk D+
Cash (6)Whales (17)SEC (12)Macro (11)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$20 Bull$17 Base$13 Bear
📬 FREE PD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY PD SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 1.2% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$16.68+1.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$16.93+4.8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$17.75-5.9% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$16.71+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, PD faces multiple-compression risk if 7.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 82.4% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($15.30) or 200D SMA ($10.19) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($17.09) toward Bear Floor ($13.33).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PD• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “PD Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PD Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $16.71: 598.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.33
$7,977
$-2,023 (-20.2%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.09
$10,227
+$227 (+2.3%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $20.17
$12,071
+$2,071 (+20.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1874%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1558%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PD Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
PD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +125.20%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-11-03O $17.38H $17.38L $16.71C $16.71VOL 1.38M
RES: $18.34SUP: $16.89SMA50: $15.30SMA200: $10.19
$18.88$15.50$12.12$8.74$5.36RES $18.34SUP $16.89$16.712026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PD Butterfly Map → + Track PD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-5.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +5.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PD)

Technology Rank #171 of 715 ⚔️ ALKT vs PD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (PD vs. ALKT, RDVT, OPRA, GTM)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, PagerDuty Inc. (PD) ranks #171 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #330 by equity capitalization ($1.33B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PD leads on earnings valuation at 7.9x trailing P/E, while RDVT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 16.1% ROIC and — gross margin. RDVT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 68/100 (C+) compared with PD at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PD ACTIVE
PagerDuty Inc.
C 63/100 7.9x 84.9% 6.8% -1.36% $1.33B Benchmark Subject
ALKT
Alkami Technology Inc.
E 31/100 — 57.8% -14.2% +7.58% $1.33B /alkt-vs-pd →
RDVT
Red Violet Inc.
C+ 68/100 98.2x — 16.1% -2.84% $1.28B /rdvt-vs-pd →
OPRA
Opera Limited
D 45/100 — — — -3.89% $1.39B /opra-vs-pd →
GTM
ZoomInfo Technologies Inc
D+ 52/100 10.5x 84.0% 6.7% -1.15% $1.27B /gtm-vs-pd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001568100 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), PagerDuty Inc. (PD) reported GAAP revenue of $492.5M (+5.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $467.5M , and +14.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $172.7M, operating cash flow of $114.9M, and free cash flow of $111.9M (-2.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, PD closed FY2025 with $990.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.43, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $492.5M $172.7M $114.9M $111.9M $990.5M —
FY2024 (FY) 2025-01-31 $467.5M -$43.5M $117.9M $115.1M $927.3M —
FY2023 (FY) 2024-01-31 $430.7M -$77.4M $72.0M $72.0M — —

3. PD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, PagerDuty Inc. (NYSE: PD) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $16.71 (-1.36% 1D, market cap $1.33B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, PD ranks #171 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PD compare to ALKT and RDVT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PD carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.9x, gross margin of 84.9%, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, ALKT (Alkami Technology Inc.) holds a E grade (31/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -14.2%, cap $1.33B) and RDVT (Red Violet Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 98.2x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.28B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PD leads on earnings multiple (7.9x) while RDVT leads on capital efficiency (16.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PD?

Per PD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001568100), PagerDuty Inc. generated $492.5M in revenue (+5.4% YoY), $172.7M in net income, and $111.9M in free cash flow against $990.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PD last traded at $16.71 (-1.36% on volume of 1,230,082 shares), positioning the stock +9.22% above its 50-day simple moving average ($15.30) and +63.98% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.19). Across its 52-week range of $5.70 to $18.06, PD sits at the 89.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.5 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.5% ($15.46 to $17.96).

Direct Sub-Reports: PD RQD Cockpit PD 12M Forecast PD Earnings & Move PD Dividends & DRIP PD Insiders & 13F PD Whale Options PD Profit Sankey PD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PD — PagerDuty Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

PagerDuty Inc. (PD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $16.71 (-1.36% 1D, market capitalization $1.33B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.8%, gross margin of 84.9%, operating margin of 1.2%, and free cash flow yield of 8.19%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (11/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.43, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

PagerDuty Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry, profile. The profile identifies the company only by sector, industry, and exchange. The financial figures indicate revenue of $492.5M for FY 2025, but the composition of that revenue is not detailed in the source data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), PagerDuty Inc. (PD) reported $492.5M in annual revenue (up from $467.5M in FY2024, +5.4% YoY) and $172.7M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($430.7M revenue, -$77.4M net income) through FY2025, PD scaled operating cash flow to $114.9M and free cash flow to $111.9M, backed by $990.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.70 – $18.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins. Investors must weigh 7.9x trailing P/E against 1.2% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source data therefore does not establish any upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations beyond the Technology/Prepackaged Software classification, or second-order bottlenecks. The Roarable RQD macro pillar notes sector sensitivity through a Beta of 1.0, which indicates market-level rather than sub-sector exposure. An investor should note that the absence of mapped links means the source cannot identify which customers, suppliers, or competitors could transmit shocks to PD.

  • Key Question #1: Can PD sustain or expand its 1.2% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $492.5M and free cash flow of $111.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PD's 7.3x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

PD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for PagerDuty Inc. (PD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.71?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.85 (+29.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Trading at 7.9x trailing earnings with an 8.19% FCF yield and strong institutional and insider flow scores.

The street is overcomplicating PagerDuty Inc. (PD). Trading at 7.9x trailing earnings with an 8.19% FCF yield and strong institutional and insider flow scores.. With an RQD score of 63/100 (C) and Forensic Balance Sheet at 12/20, any positive earnings surprise or guidance raise forces underweight funds to chase above $18.30.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — PD's 12/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

FA FadeTheHype RQD DEBATE OPENER • Contrarian Tape Reader 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.89 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $16.94

A 1.2% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC leave the cash engine scoring just 6/20 in the RQD rating.

A 1.2% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC leave the cash engine scoring just 6/20 in the RQD rating.. Look at the math on PD: paying 7.9x trailing P/E for 6.8% ROIC and 1.2% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $14.91 before getting long.

LIVE TAPE