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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / PKG / insiders
SW (56) KMB (72) AVY (74) WMS (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$258.64 +0.71% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $259.59

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 75/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (21.0% gross margin, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B β€’ BUY Cap $22.88B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PKG Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PKG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $258.64 (+0.71% 1D, market cap $22.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PKG ranks #58 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PKG compare to SW and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
β–Ό

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), PKG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.3x, gross margin of 21.0%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, SW (Smurfit WestRock plc) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 31.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $22.60B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PKG?
β–Ό

Per PKG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000075677), Packaging Corporation of America generated $8.99B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $774.1M in net income, and $728.6M in free cash flow against $10.73B in total assets and $3.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (21.0% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $259.60 (+0.37%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) β€’ 8.1% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 75/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 69.7% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B
025507510075
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ Β· Rk B-
Cash (16)Whales (17)SEC (18)Macro (10)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.7% Base Target
$329 Bull$278 Base$212 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE PKG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PKG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (75/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY PKG SCORES 75/100 (B) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+18/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.58 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 7/9

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±4.4% realized swing band)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (67.8) create a -10 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
67
Grade B-$229.96+3.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
70
Grade B$239.00+3.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
72
Grade B$248.44+4.1% Next Q
Current
75
Grade B$258.64+7.4% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: B- (67) β†’ B (75)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PKG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 75/100 (B) score, PKG faces multiple-compression risk if 29.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 18.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($237.71) or 200D SMA ($229.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($278.43) toward Bear Floor ($212.08).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PKGβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œPKG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 75%NO 25%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
SEC FORM 4 Γ— 13F HEDGE FUNDS Γ— CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

PKG Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales β†’
β–² Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)β–Ό Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (PKG)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on PKG. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (PKG Tape Review)

  • βœ“Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • βœ“Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • βœ“Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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PKG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.61%πŸ“ HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $254.5H $258.6L $254.5C $258.6VOL 555.8K
RES: $284.5SUP: $225.6SMA50: $237.7SMA200: $229.9
$264.0$247.4$230.9$214.3$197.8RES $284.5SUP $225.6$258.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PKG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ PKG Butterfly Map β†’ + Track PKG β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
22.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PKG today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PKG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PKG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PKG)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #58 of 1009 βš”οΈ SW vs PKG Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (PKG vs. SW, KMB, AVY, WMS)

Industry: Containers/Packaging (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) ranks #58 by composite RQD confidence (75/100, grade B) and #88 by equity capitalization ($22.88B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KMB leads on earnings valuation at 18.1x trailing P/E, while KMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 43.6% ROIC and 36.0% gross margin. PKG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 75/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
PKG ACTIVE
Packaging Corporation of America
B 75/100 29.3x 21.0% 10.9% +0.71% $22.88B Benchmark Subject
SW
Smurfit WestRock plc
D+ 56/100 31.9x 19.4% 4.7% +0.72% $22.60B /sw-vs-pkg β†’
KMB
Kimberly-Clark Corporation
B 72/100 18.1x 36.0% 43.6% +0.29% $35.90B /kmb-vs-pkg β†’
AVY
Avery Dennison Corporation
B 74/100 20.1x 28.8% 17.4% +2.63% $13.81B /avy-vs-pkg β†’
WMS
Advanced Drainage Systems Inc.
B- 71/100 24.0x 38.3% 22.3% +2.63% $10.21B /wms-vs-pkg β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0000075677 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported GAAP revenue of $8.99B (+7.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $8.38B , and +15.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $774.1M, operating cash flow of $1.56B, and free cash flow of $728.6M (+39.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PKG closed FY2025 with $10.73B in total assets against $3.97B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.58, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $8.99B $774.1M $1.56B $728.6M $10.73B $3.97B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $8.38B $805.1M $1.19B $521.5M $8.83B $2.47B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.80B $765.2M $1.32B $964.0M $12.47B $2.92B

3. PKG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PKG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE: PKG) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 75/100 at a spot price of $258.64 (+0.71% 1D, market cap $22.88B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, PKG ranks #58 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PKG compare to SW and KMB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Containers/Packaging), PKG carries a Roarable B (75/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 29.3x, gross margin of 21.0%, and ROIC of 10.9%. By comparison, SW (Smurfit WestRock plc) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 31.9x, ROIC 4.7%, cap $22.60B) and KMB (Kimberly-Clark Corporation) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 18.1x, ROIC 43.6%, cap $35.90B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KMB leads on earnings multiple (18.1x) while KMB leads on capital efficiency (43.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PKG?

Per PKG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000075677), Packaging Corporation of America generated $8.99B in revenue (+7.2% YoY), $774.1M in net income, and $728.6M in free cash flow against $10.73B in total assets and $3.97B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (21.0% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PKG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PKG last traded at $258.64 (+0.71% on volume of 867,015 shares), positioning the stock +8.80% above its 50-day simple moving average ($237.71) and +12.49% above its 200-day simple moving average ($229.93). Across its 52-week range of $191.50 to $259.98, PKG sits at the 98.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 67.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.4% ($247.26 to $270.02).

Direct Sub-Reports: PKG RQD Cockpit PKG 12M Forecast PKG Earnings & Move PKG Dividends & DRIP PKG Insiders & 13F PKG Whale Options PKG Profit Sankey PKG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 75/100 (B) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

PKG β€” Packaging Corporation of America: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 75/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $258.64 (+0.71% 1D, market capitalization $22.88B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (16/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 10.9%, gross margin of 21.0%, operating margin of 12.3%, and free cash flow yield of 3.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (18/20): Incorporates a 0.94x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 4.58, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.86x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Containers/Packaging industry,. The profile section identifies the company's market capitalization as $22.7B. β€” for product detail, customer base, or revenue mix. β€” for how the company generates its revenue beyond its industry classification.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) reported $8.99B in annual revenue (up from $8.38B in FY2024, +7.2% YoY) and $774.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.80B revenue, $765.2M net income) through FY2025, PKG scaled operating cash flow to $1.56B and free cash flow to $728.6M, backed by $10.73B in total assets against $3.97B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (B β€’ RQD 75/100): Strong cash generator (21.0% gross margin)β€”profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 16/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $191.50 – $259.98 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 29.3x trailing P/E and 14.4x EV/EBITDA against 12.3% operating margins and a 0.94x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector classification is Consumer Discretionary and industry is Containers/Packaging. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data. β€” for named suppliers, customers, or input-cost exposures.

  • Key Question #1: Can PKG sustain or expand its 12.3% operating margin and 10.9% ROIC against Containers/Packaging peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.99B and free cash flow of $728.6M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $3.97B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is PKG's 27.2x forward P/E multiple to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.94x)?

PKG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to PKG Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PKG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $258.64?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PKG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on PKG:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $313.32 (+22.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

The RQD's strongest pillar, Whale 13F Flow at 17/20, points to institutional accumulation, while the balance sheet scores 18/20 with an

Picked up a starter position in PKG in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $256.82. The RQD's strongest pillar, Whale 13F Flow at 17/20, points to institutional accumulation, while the balance sheet scores 18/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 4.58.. Trading inside a $191.50–$259.98 52-week range with 3.21% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Containers/Packaging multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator πŸ‚ BULL

@DeltaGamma_99 Agree on the RQD 75/100 quality, though with 0.94 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $256.82 and keeping dry powder in case we test $238.84.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $205.46 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $256.82

At a P/E (TTM) of 29.3 against a 3.21% FCF yield, the stock trades at a premium while its Macro Regime Fit scores only 10/20.

Careful chasing PKG at $256.82. At a P/E (TTM) of 29.3 against a 3.21% FCF yield, the stock trades at a premium while its Macro Regime Fit scores only 10/20.. Gross margin is 21.0%, but operating margin is 12.3%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $205.46 on multiple compression.

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