Stock Ratings / Health Care / PVLA / insiders

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Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$146.15 -3.58% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $144.93

Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $2.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on PVLA Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is PVLA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: PVLA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $146.15 (-3.58% 1D, market cap $2.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, PVLA ranks #337 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does PVLA compare to XNCR and MRVI in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), PVLA carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -27.9%. By comparison, XNCR (Xencor Inc.) holds a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -21.3%, cap $2.17B) and MRVI (Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $2.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PVLA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while PRGO leads on capital efficiency (-13.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PVLA?

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Per PVLA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001583648), Palvella Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$41.7M in net income, and -$25.0M in free cash flow against $59.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $144.94 (-0.83%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PVLA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PVLA SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (36% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.2% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$134.38-8.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$122.96+2.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$126.23+15.8% Next Q

Current

Grade D$146.15-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (39) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PVLA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PVLA currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($141.66) and Max Pain ($153.46) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $169.45.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PVLA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PVLA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

PVLA Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (PVLA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on PVLA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PVLA)

✓Walkthrough of PVLA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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PVLA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +14.53%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-11-02O $147.5H $151.6L $146.2C $146.2VOL 343.0K

RES: $160.6SUP: $114.6SMA50: $141.7SMA200: $127.2

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PVLA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PVLA Butterfly Map → + Track PVLA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PVLA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PVLA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PVLA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PVLA)

Health Care Rank #337 of 1016 ⚔️ XNCR vs PVLA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (PVLA vs. XNCR, MRVI, VERA, PRGO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) ranks #337 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #247 by equity capitalization ($2.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PVLA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while PRGO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -13.6% ROIC and 35.1% gross margin. PRGO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 49/100 (D) compared with PVLA at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PVLA ACTIVE Palvella Therapeutics Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	-27.9%	-3.58%	$2.18B	Benchmark Subject
XNCR Xencor Inc.	D	47/100	—	—	-21.3%	+2.09%	$2.17B	/xncr-vs-pvla →
MRVI Maravai LifeSciences Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	40/100	—	18.3%	-35.0%	-7.68%	$2.20B	/mrvi-vs-pvla →
VERA Vera Therapeutics Inc. (Class A)	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	+1.47%	$2.20B	/vera-vs-pvla →
PRGO Perrigo Company plc	D	49/100	—	35.1%	-13.6%	-0.75%	$2.21B	/prgo-vs-pvla →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001583648

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$41.7M, operating cash flow of -$25.0M, and free cash flow of -$25.0M (-130.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, PVLA closed FY2025 with $59.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$41.7M	-$25.0M	-$25.0M	$59.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$17.4M	-$10.8M	-$10.8M	$88.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$42.8M	$18.7M	-$13.7M	-$13.7M	—	—

3. PVLA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PVLA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does PVLA compare to XNCR and MRVI in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PVLA?

Where is PVLA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PVLA last traded at $146.15 (-3.58% on volume of 293,067 shares), positioning the stock +3.17% above its 50-day simple moving average ($141.66) and +14.92% above its 200-day simple moving average ($127.17). Across its 52-week range of $71.55 to $161.38, PVLA sits at the 83.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.2% ($128.32 to $163.98).

PVLA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are PVLA insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies PVLA leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: PVLA RQD Cockpit PVLA 12M Forecast PVLA Earnings & Move PVLA Dividends & DRIP PVLA Insiders & 13F PVLA Whale Options PVLA Profit Sankey PVLA News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 47/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

PVLA — Palvella Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:26:26Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, PVLA scores 47 out of 100, a letter grade of D, labeled "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." Across the five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine scores 7 of 20 (ROIC -27.9%; FCF yield -1.14%), indicating weak cash generation. Whale 13F Flow scores 17 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), the strongest pillar. Insider Conviction scores 3 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), the weakest pillar. Macro Regime Fit scores 10 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity). Forensic Balance Sheet scores 10 of 20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 2/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pillar mix points to a divergence: institutional positioning is comparatively supportive, while cash-flow generation and insider signals are weak. Per the financials, the company reported no revenue in the FY 2025 and FY 2024 periods and negative free cash flow in each reported year, so the valuation case rests on factors outside current cash generation. The rating's verdict label signals distribution-related caution. Upside drivers are limited to the institutional flow and the catalyst headlines below; the principal tradeoff is that a $2.18B market capitalization is set against negative ROIC and negative FCF yield.

Business

Palvella Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, within the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. Per the profile, the company has a market capitalization of $2.2B. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model; the financials report $0.0M revenue for FY 2025 and FY 2024, and $42.8M for FY 2023.

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$0.0M	$-38.6M	$-41.7M	N/A	$-25.0M	$58.0M	N/A
FY 2024	$0.0M	$-14.1M	$-17.4M	N/A	$-10.8M	$83.6M	N/A
FY 2023	$42.8M	$-11.9M	$18.7M	N/A	$-13.7M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income and net income were negative in FY 2025 and FY 2024, and FCF was negative in all three reported periods. Per the market data, gross, operating, and net margins are each 0%, and ROIC is -27.9%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $83.6M in FY 2024 to $58.0M in FY 2025.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

Catalyst (GREEN): A report from Mugglehead Investment Magazine describes Palvella gaining FDA priority review with a February decision target.
Market wire (YELLOW): Items from Yahoo Finance Australia, Simply Wall St, markets.businessinsider.com, and The Globe and Mail cover market action and analyst commentary, including a mention in a healthcare analyst roundup.
Event (YELLOW): Palvella is listed as participating in the Chardan 10th Annual Healthcare Conference.
Insider activity (YELLOW): A report from Investing.com Canada describes director George M. Jenkins disposing of $3.58m of PVLA stock.
Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph: Supply chain reported as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

What is the FDA review timeline and the decision date behind the February target referenced in the catalyst headline?
What products or pipeline assets generate or are expected to generate revenue, given zero reported revenue for FY 2024 and FY 2025?
What is the debt balance, since the financials report debt as N/A while Debt/Equity is listed as 0.5?
What is the reason for the FY 2023 positive net income of $18.7M against negative operating income of $-11.9M?
What is the composition of institutional holders and whether the reported accumulation is confirmed by 13F filings?

PVLA Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to PVLA Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance Australia • 14h ago

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc. (PVLA) stock price, news, quote and history

Yahoo Finance Australia report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Simply Wall St • 17h ago

Palvella Therapeutics (Nasdaq:PVLA) - Stock Analysis

Simply Wall St report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE markets.businessinsider.com • 20h ago

Palvella Therapeutics to Participate in the Chardan 10th Annual Healthcare Conference

markets.businessinsider.com report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 23h ago

Analysts Offer Insights on Healthcare Companies: Pfizer (PFE), Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) and Mineralys Therapeutics, Inc. (MLYS)

The Globe and Mail report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com Canada • 1d ago

Palvella Therapeutics director George M. Jenkins disposes of $3.58m PVLA stock

Investing.com Canada report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Mugglehead Investment Magazine • 1d ago

Palvella Therapeutics gains FDA priority review with February decision target

Mugglehead Investment Magazine report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 1d ago

After exercising options, Palvella Therapeutics (PVLA) COO sold 4,313 shares.

Stock Titan report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Palvella Therapeutics to Host Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Corporate Update Conference Call on November 5, 2026

Yahoo Finance report covering Palvella Therapeutics Inc. (PVLA) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

PVLA Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $146.15?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON PVLA 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $163.71 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is PVLA (D • RQD 47/100) a Buy at $151.58?

Welcome to the PVLA (Palvella Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 47/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SK SkepticalCFA Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $125.81 (-17.0%)

Spot @ $151.58

Pump the brakes on PVLA — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on PVLA, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Palvella Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

AL AlphaFlow_Cap Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $189.48 (+25.0%)

Spot @ $151.58

PVLA cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on PVLA, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $151.58 (52-wk range $71.55 - $161.38), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.