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Stock Ratings / Industrials / RAIL / dividends
FIP (33) GBX (58) TRN (60) RVSN (31) ⌘ Pro Terminal β†’

FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$4.12 -1.20% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.10

FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $136.7M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RAIL Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RAIL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, FreightCar America Inc. (NASDAQ: RAIL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $4.12 (-1.20% 1D, market cap $136.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, RAIL ranks #359 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RAIL compare to FIP and GBX in the Industrials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Industrials sector (Railroads), RAIL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 14.6%, and ROIC of 27.5%. By comparison, FIP (FTAI Infrastructure Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $338.0M) and GBX (Greenbrier Companies Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 24.1%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GBX leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while TRN leads on capital efficiency (58.6% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RAIL?
β–Ό

Per RAIL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001320854), FreightCar America Inc. generated $500.7M in revenue (-10.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and $31.4M in free cash flow against $290.0M in total assets and $97.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.10 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 6.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (37/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510037
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D Β· Rk E
Cash (14)Whales (3)SEC (3)Macro (5)CEO (13)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.5% Base Target
$16 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE RAIL RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RAIL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±10.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (37/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY RAIL SCORES 37/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (38% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 6.3% FCF Margin ($31.4M FCF) & 14.6% Gross Margin

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+13/20 pts (35% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 65% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 16 pts from forensic ceiling

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$6.29-36.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
42
Grade D$4.02+11.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
40
Grade D$4.47-7.8% Next Q
Current
37
Grade D-$4.12-8.1% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (45) β†’ D- (37)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RAIL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While RAIL currently carries a cautious 37/100 (D-) rating due to SEC 10-K Forensic Risk (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.25) and Max Pain ($4.33) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.65.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.52% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RAILβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œRAIL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 37%NO 63%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
1.8% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 β€’ REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (5.5% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $17,081

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $307/yr
$10.6K
Yr 1
$11.1K
Yr 2
$11.7K
Yr 3
$12.4K
Yr 4
$13.1K
Yr 5
$13.8K
Yr 6
$14.5K
Yr 7
$15.3K
Yr 8
$16.2K
Yr 9
$17.1K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RAIL)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of RAIL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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RAIL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.88%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $4.18H $4.18L $4.12C $4.12VOL 215.5K
RES: $6.66SUP: $3.33SMA50: $6.25SMA200: $8.52
$10.74$8.87$7.01$5.14$3.27RES $6.66SUP $3.33$4.122026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RAIL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ RAIL Butterfly Map β†’ + Track RAIL β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-5.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -10.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RAIL today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RAIL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RAIL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RAIL)

Industrials Rank #359 of 486 βš”οΈ FIP vs RAIL Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (RAIL vs. FIP, GBX, TRN, RVSN)

Industry: Railroads (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) ranks #359 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #364 by equity capitalization ($136.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GBX leads on earnings valuation at 5.9x trailing P/E, while TRN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 58.6% ROIC and β€” gross margin. TRN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with RAIL at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RAIL ACTIVE
FreightCar America Inc.
D- 37/100 β€” 14.6% 27.5% -1.20% $136.7M Benchmark Subject
FIP
FTAI Infrastructure Inc.
E 33/100 β€” β€” β€” -0.70% $338.0M /fip-vs-rail β†’
GBX
Greenbrier Companies Inc.
D+ 58/100 5.9x 18.7% 24.1% +8.23% $1.21B /gbx-vs-rail β†’
TRN
Trinity Industries Inc.
C- 60/100 8.1x β€” 58.6% +3.53% $2.30B /trn-vs-rail β†’
RVSN
Rail Vision Ltd. Ordinary Share
E 31/100 β€” 37.1% -35.0% -3.27% $6.0M /rvsn-vs-rail β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001320854 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) reported GAAP revenue of $500.7M (-10.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $557.7M , and +40.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $34.8M, and free cash flow of $31.4M (-21.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, RAIL closed FY2025 with $290.0M in total assets against $97.5M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.75, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $500.7M $0 $34.8M $31.4M $290.0M $97.5M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $557.7M $0 $44.9M $39.9M $224.2M $105.5M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $356.8M $0 $4.8M $4.8M β€” β€”

3. RAIL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RAIL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, FreightCar America Inc. (NASDAQ: RAIL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $4.12 (-1.20% 1D, market cap $136.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 13/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, RAIL ranks #359 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RAIL compare to FIP and GBX in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Railroads), RAIL carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 14.6%, and ROIC of 27.5%. By comparison, FIP (FTAI Infrastructure Inc.) holds a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC β€”, cap $338.0M) and GBX (Greenbrier Companies Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 5.9x, ROIC 24.1%, cap $1.21B). Among the 5-stock peer group, GBX leads on earnings multiple (5.9x) while TRN leads on capital efficiency (58.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RAIL?

Per RAIL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001320854), FreightCar America Inc. generated $500.7M in revenue (-10.2% YoY), $0 in net income, and $31.4M in free cash flow against $290.0M in total assets and $97.5M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RAIL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RAIL last traded at $4.12 (-1.20% on volume of 217,178 shares), positioning the stock -34.08% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.25) and -51.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($8.52). Across its 52-week range of $3.85 to $14.90, RAIL sits at the 2.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 25.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±10.3% ($3.70 to $4.54).

Direct Sub-Reports: RAIL RQD Cockpit RAIL 12M Forecast RAIL Earnings & Move RAIL Dividends & DRIP RAIL Insiders & 13F RAIL Whale Options RAIL Profit Sankey RAIL News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 37/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RAIL β€” FreightCar America Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 37/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $4.12 (-1.20% 1D, market capitalization $136.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 27.5%, gross margin of 14.6%, operating margin of 6.8%, and free cash flow yield of 22.91%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (13/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.75, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 8.50x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

FreightCar America Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company classified under the Industrials sector and the Railroads industry. Market capitalization is listed at $0.1B in the profile. Gross margin is reported at 14.6% and operating margin at 6.8% in the market data section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) reported $500.7M in annual revenue (up from $557.7M in FY2024, -10.2% YoY) and $0 in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($356.8M revenue, $0 net income) through FY2025, RAIL scaled operating cash flow to $34.8M and free cash flow to $31.4M, backed by $290.0M in total assets against $97.5M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 37/100): Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 22.91% and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $3.85 – $14.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh current valuation and 6.4x EV/EBITDA against 6.8% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore β€” Within the news wire, the backlog cancellation and the reported revenue decline point to order-book sensitivity as the most visible ripple, and a prospective investor should monitor whether further order cancellations or customer concentration issues emerge.

  • Key Question #1: Can RAIL sustain or expand its 6.8% operating margin and 27.5% ROIC against Railroads peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $500.7M and free cash flow of $31.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $97.5M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RAIL's equity valuation to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RAIL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to RAIL Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RAIL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $4.12?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RAIL 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RAIL:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $5.09 (+22.1%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

High ROIC of 27.5% and a 22.91% FCF yield signal strong cash generation relative to a $137.1M market cap.

Picked up a starter position in RAIL in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $4.17. High ROIC of 27.5% and a 22.91% FCF yield signal strong cash generation relative to a $137.1M market cap.. Trading inside a $3.85–$14.90 52-week range with 22.91% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Railroads multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX πŸ‚ BULL

@CreditSpread_Watch Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $4.17 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Industrials.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.50 (-16.1%)
Spot @ $4.17

A 1.75 Altman Z-Score, 3/9 Piotroski F-Score, and 8.5 Debt/Equity leave the balance sheet in a vulnerable position amid a backlog cance

Careful chasing RAIL at $4.17. A 1.75 Altman Z-Score, 3/9 Piotroski F-Score, and 8.5 Debt/Equity leave the balance sheet in a vulnerable position amid a backlog cancellation.. Gross margin is 14.6%, but operating margin is 6.8%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $3.50 on multiple compression.

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