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Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.52 +0.21% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.51

Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $28.2M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RAND Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RAND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Rand Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: RAND) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $9.52 (+0.21% 1D, market cap $28.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RAND ranks #931 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RAND compare to FLD and JFU in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RAND carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -15.4%. By comparison, FLD (Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $29.3M) and JFU (9F Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $27.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RAND leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMTD leads on capital efficiency (4.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RAND?
▼

Per RAND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000081955), Rand Capital Corporation generated $22.3M in revenue (-26.6% YoY), -$8.0M in net income, and $11.3M in free cash flow against $53.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.51 (-0.15%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 50.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (10)Whales (4)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target
$18 Bull$9 Base$7 Bear
📬 FREE RAND RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RAND)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±2.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RAND SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 50.4% FCF Margin ($11.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$9.60-0.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$9.59-5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$9.11+4.5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$9.52-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RAND Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RAND currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.15) and Max Pain ($10.00) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.36.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RAND• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RAND Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RAND Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.52: 1050.4 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $6.79
$7,132
$-2,868 (-28.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $8.71
$9,149
$-851 (-8.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $18.36
$19,286
+$9,286 (+92.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$1769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$858%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RAND)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RAND's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RAND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.85%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $9.58H $9.58L $9.50C $9.52VOL 394
RES: $11.33SUP: $9.06SMA50: $10.15SMA200: $10.64
$13.72$12.47$11.22$9.97$8.72RES $11.33SUP $9.06$9.522026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RAND Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RAND Butterfly Map → + Track RAND →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -26.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RAND today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RAND. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RAND today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RAND)

Financials Rank #931 of 1097 ⚔️ FLD vs RAND Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RAND vs. FLD, JFU, GRAN, AMTD)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) ranks #931 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #1040 by equity capitalization ($28.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RAND leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while AMTD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 4.9% ROIC and — gross margin. AMTD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with RAND at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RAND ACTIVE
Rand Capital Corporation
D- 39/100 — — -15.4% +0.21% $28.2M Benchmark Subject
FLD
Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A)
D- 35/100 — — -35.0% +2.88% $29.3M /fld-vs-rand →
JFU
9F Inc.
D 44/100 — — 0.3% +4.74% $27.0M /jfu-vs-rand →
GRAN
Grande Group Limited (Class A)
E 31/100 — — — +0.84% $29.6M /gran-vs-rand →
AMTD
AMTD IDEA Group each representing three hundred sixty (360) (Class A)
D 46/100 — — 4.9% -2.65% $31.3M /amtd-vs-rand →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000081955 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) reported GAAP revenue of $22.3M (-26.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $30.4M , and -29.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$8.0M, operating cash flow of $11.3M, and free cash flow of $11.3M (-26.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, RAND closed FY2025 with $53.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $22.3M -$8.0M $11.3M $11.3M $53.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $30.4M $8.8M $15.3M $15.3M $72.5M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $31.7M $6.5M -$8.3M -$8.3M — —

3. RAND Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RAND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Rand Capital Corporation (NASDAQ: RAND) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $9.52 (+0.21% 1D, market cap $28.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RAND ranks #931 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RAND compare to FLD and JFU in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RAND carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -15.4%. By comparison, FLD (Fold Holdings Inc. (Class A)) holds a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $29.3M) and JFU (9F Inc.) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.3%, cap $27.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RAND leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while AMTD leads on capital efficiency (4.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RAND?

Per RAND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000081955), Rand Capital Corporation generated $22.3M in revenue (-26.6% YoY), -$8.0M in net income, and $11.3M in free cash flow against $53.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RAND trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RAND last traded at $9.52 (+0.21% on volume of 525 shares), positioning the stock -6.21% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.15) and -10.53% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.64). Across its 52-week range of $9.11 to $17.49, RAND sits at the 4.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±2.1% ($9.32 to $9.72).

Direct Sub-Reports: RAND RQD Cockpit RAND 12M Forecast RAND Earnings & Move RAND Dividends & DRIP RAND Insiders & 13F RAND Whale Options RAND Profit Sankey RAND News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RAND — Rand Capital Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $9.52 (+0.21% 1D, market capitalization $28.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (10/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.4%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Finance: Consumer Services industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $28.2M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.4% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Finance: Consumer Services peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) reported $22.3M in annual revenue (up from $30.4M in FY2024, -26.6% YoY) and -$8.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($31.7M revenue, $6.5M net income) through FY2025, RAND scaled operating cash flow to $11.3M and free cash flow to $11.3M, backed by $53.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 10/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $9.11 – $17.49 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Finance: Consumer Services (Financials), RAND carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can RAND sustain or expand its — operating margin and -15.4% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $22.3M and free cash flow of $11.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RAND's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RAND Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Rand Capital Corporation (RAND) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RAND Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RAND Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $9.52?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RAND 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RAND:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $12.16 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported FCF was positive at $11.3M in FY 2025 and $15.3M in FY 2024, with the RQD forensic pillar rating the balance sheet at a middli

Picked up a starter position in RAND in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $9.50. Reported FCF was positive at $11.3M in FY 2025 and $15.3M in FY 2024, with the RQD forensic pillar rating the balance sheet at a middling 10/20 rather than distressed.. Trading inside a $9.11–$17.49 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Finance: Consumer Services multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Finance: Consumer Services. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $7.79 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $9.50

ROIC is -15.4%, FCF yield is 0%, and net income turned negative at -$8.0M in FY 2025, with both institutional and insider flow pillars

ROIC is -15.4%, FCF yield is 0%, and net income turned negative at -$8.0M in FY 2025, with both institutional and insider flow pillars scoring only 5/20 each.. Look at the math on RAND: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -15.4% ROIC and 0.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Finance: Consumer Services demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $8.36 before getting long.

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