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Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.84 -7.57% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.66

Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 33/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $4.81B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RIOT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $11.84 (-7.57% 1D, market cap $4.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RIOT ranks #993 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RIOT compare to FIGR and CACC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RIOT carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -15.3%. By comparison, FIGR (Figure Technology Solutions Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 39.5x, ROIC 21.9%, cap $4.84B) and CACC (Credit Acceptance Corporation) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $4.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNI leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while SEZL leads on capital efficiency (38.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIOT?
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Per RIOT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001167419), Riot Platforms Inc. generated $647.4M in revenue (+71.9% YoY), -$663.2M in net income, and -$774.3M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $586.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.66 (-1.55%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (33/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510033
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (6)SEC (11)Macro (3)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.2% Base Target
$32 Bull$11 Base$8 Bear
📬 FREE RIOT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RIOT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (33/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RIOT SCORES 33/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (33% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (35.1) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
41
Grade D$15.10-7.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
38
Grade E$14.02+3.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
36
Grade E$14.45-18.1% Next Q
Current
33
Grade E$11.84-8.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (41) → E (33)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RIOT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RIOT currently carries a cautious 33/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.35) and Max Pain ($12.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $31.84.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.64% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RIOT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RIOT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 33%NO 67%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your RIOT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.84: 844.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $8.20
$6,926
$-3,074 (-30.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $10.51
$8,877
$-1,123 (-11.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $31.84
$26,892
+$16,892 (+168.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1174%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$3069%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$958%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RIOT)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RIOT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RIOT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -36.62%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $13.74H $13.74L $11.84C $11.84VOL 25.72M
RES: $25.55SUP: $10.89SMA50: $18.35SMA200: $19.34
$31.62$26.24$20.87$15.50$10.12RES $25.55SUP $10.89$11.842026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RIOT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RIOT Butterfly Map → + Track RIOT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
14.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +71.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RIOT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →
CLSK → RIOT Confirmed Filing
Bitcoin mining is a zero-sum hash-share competition: CleanSpark pure-play high-efficiency fleet expansion increases network difficulty for Riot Platforms, pushing Riot to evaluate repurposing Corsicana/Rockdale ERCOT megawatts toward AI/HPC colocation.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RIOT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RIOT)

Financials Rank #993 of 1097 ⚔️ FIGR vs RIOT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RIOT vs. FIGR, CACC, SEZL, NNI)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) ranks #993 by composite RQD confidence (33/100, grade E) and #278 by equity capitalization ($4.81B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NNI leads on earnings valuation at 10.3x trailing P/E, while SEZL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 38.6% ROIC and — gross margin. SEZL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 79/100 (B+) compared with RIOT at 33/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RIOT ACTIVE
Riot Platforms Inc.
E 33/100 — — -15.3% -7.57% $4.81B Benchmark Subject
FIGR
Figure Technology Solutions Inc.
D 50/100 39.5x — 21.9% +0.97% $4.84B /figr-vs-riot →
CACC
Credit Acceptance Corporation
D 50/100 — — 0.0% +4.27% $4.71B /cacc-vs-riot →
SEZL
Sezzle Inc.
B+ 79/100 — — 38.6% -4.84% $4.56B /sezl-vs-riot →
NNI
Nelnet Inc.
D+ 53/100 10.3x — 11.6% +1.47% $4.38B /nni-vs-riot →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001167419 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) reported GAAP revenue of $647.4M (+71.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $376.7M , and +130.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$663.2M, operating cash flow of -$572.9M, and free cash flow of -$774.3M (-56.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, RIOT closed FY2025 with $3.94B in total assets against $586.9M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $647.4M -$663.2M -$572.9M -$774.3M $3.94B $586.9M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $376.7M $109.4M -$255.1M -$495.4M $3.94B $584.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $280.7M -$49.5M $33.1M $20.5M $2.84B $663.6M

3. RIOT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RIOT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Riot Platforms Inc. (NASDAQ: RIOT) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 33/100 at a spot price of $11.84 (-7.57% 1D, market cap $4.81B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RIOT ranks #993 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RIOT compare to FIGR and CACC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RIOT carries a Roarable E (33/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -15.3%. By comparison, FIGR (Figure Technology Solutions Inc.) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E 39.5x, ROIC 21.9%, cap $4.84B) and CACC (Credit Acceptance Corporation) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $4.71B). Among the 5-stock peer group, NNI leads on earnings multiple (10.3x) while SEZL leads on capital efficiency (38.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RIOT?

Per RIOT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001167419), Riot Platforms Inc. generated $647.4M in revenue (+71.9% YoY), -$663.2M in net income, and -$774.3M in free cash flow against $3.94B in total assets and $586.9M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RIOT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RIOT last traded at $11.84 (-7.57% on volume of 17,730,020 shares), positioning the stock -35.48% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.35) and -38.78% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.34). Across its 52-week range of $11.50 to $30.32, RIOT sits at the 1.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 35.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($10.36 to $13.32).

Direct Sub-Reports: RIOT RQD Cockpit RIOT 12M Forecast RIOT Earnings & Move RIOT Dividends & DRIP RIOT Insiders & 13F RIOT Whale Options RIOT Profit Sankey RIOT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 33/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RIOT — Riot Platforms Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 33/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $11.84 (-7.57% 1D, market capitalization $4.81B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of -15.02%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (3/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 0.98x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

. Common Stock (RIOT) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, Finance: Consumer Services industry, with a market capitalization of $5.2B. The company reported revenue of $647.4M for FY 2025.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) reported $647.4M in annual revenue (up from $376.7M in FY2024, +71.9% YoY) and -$663.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($280.7M revenue, -$49.5M net income) through FY2025, RIOT scaled operating cash flow to -$572.9M and free cash flow to -$774.3M, backed by $3.94B in total assets against $586.9M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 33/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -15.02% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.50 – $30.32 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 0.98x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The one butterfly link connects RIOT to CLSK through a zero-sum Bitcoin hash-share rivalry: per the graph, CleanSpark's fleet expansion raises network difficulty for Riot, which may push Riot to evaluate converting ERCOT megawatts toward AI/HPC colocation. The graph identifies a bottleneck in that conversion: retrofit CapEx of $8M–$11M per MW plus creditworthy hyperscaler leases. A second-order factor is the competing explanation in the graph: ERCOT 4CP power-curtailment credits may give Riot structural power-cost advantages during Texas summer peaks. Investors should watch whether the AI/HPC feasibility milestones materialize relative to CleanSpark's efficiency prints.

  • Key Question #1: Can RIOT sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -15.3% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $647.4M and free cash flow of -$774.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $586.9M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RIOT's 21.0x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.98x)?

RIOT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Riot Platforms Inc. (RIOT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RIOT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RIOT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.84?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RIOT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RIOT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.78 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Riot's forward P/E of 21 and the Butterfly graph's noted ERCOT 4CP curtailment credits point to possible value and power-cost upside if

Don't sleep on RIOT's setup in Financials. Riot's forward P/E of 21 and the Butterfly graph's noted ERCOT 4CP curtailment credits point to possible value and power-cost upside if its AI/HPC conversion gains traction.. Beta of 0.98 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (33/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@SiliconVal_Bull Agree on the RQD 33/100 quality, though with 0.98 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $12.81 and keeping dry powder in case we test $11.91.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.12 (-21.0%)
Spot @ $12.81

FY 2025 operating loss of -$622.2M, FCF of -$774.3M, and ROIC of -15.3% against a 32/E RQD rating indicate weak cash generation and for

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on RIOT: FY 2025 operating loss of -$622.2M, FCF of -$774.3M, and ROIC of -15.3% against a 32/E RQD rating indicate weak cash generation and forensic risk.. At 21.0x forward P/E, even a small guidance miss in Finance: Consumer Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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