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Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$107.77 +4.32% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $108.87

Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 12% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- β€’ BUY Cap $680.2M
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚑ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW β€’ $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RRBI Below β€” or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RRBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Red River Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: RRBI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $107.77 (+4.32% 1D, market cap $680.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RRBI ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RRBI compare to CBNK and BHB in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), RRBI carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, CBNK (Capital Bancorp Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 14.2%, cap $679.6M) and BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $678.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while CBNK leads on capital efficiency (14.2% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RRBI?
β–Ό

Per RRBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001071236), Red River Bancshares Inc. generated $1.41B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $42.8M in net income, and $42.2M in free cash flow against $3.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $108.87 (+1.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 68.1% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY β€’ B-
025507510070
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B Β· Rk C
Cash (14)Whales (14)SEC (13)Macro (13)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target
$134 Bull$114 Base$88 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE RRBI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RRBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±4.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY RRBI SCORES 70/100 (B-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($42.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (55.9) create a -7 pt regime headwind

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
62
Grade C+$100.23+1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
65
Grade C+$101.25+1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
67
Grade B-$102.44+5.2% Next Q
Current
70
Grade B-$107.77+6.6% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: C+ (62) β†’ B- (70)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the RRBI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, RRBI faces multiple-compression risk if 15.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) β€” any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($101.66) or 200D SMA ($94.47) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($113.59) toward Bear Floor ($88.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RRBIβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œRRBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±4.3%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (RRBI)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for RRBI.

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Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating RRBI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • βœ“Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on RRBI
  • βœ“How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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RRBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +21.75%β–² ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-03O $102.1H $107.8L $102.1C $107.8VOL 80.9K
RES: $115.2SUP: $99.34SMA50: $101.7SMA200: $94.47
$110.1$100.6$91.05$81.54$72.03RES $115.2SUP $99.34$107.82026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RRBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ RRBI Butterfly Map β†’ + Track RRBI β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RRBI today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RRBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RRBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RRBI)

Financials Rank #113 of 1097 βš”οΈ CBNK vs RRBI Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RRBI vs. CBNK, BHB, MSBI, BCAL)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) ranks #113 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #630 by equity capitalization ($680.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while CBNK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.2% ROIC and β€” gross margin. CBNK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with RRBI at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RRBI ACTIVE
Red River Bancshares Inc.
B- 70/100 15.7x β€” 11.7% +4.32% $680.2M Benchmark Subject
CBNK
Capital Bancorp Inc.
B 74/100 12.0x β€” 14.2% +3.33% $679.6M /cbnk-vs-rrbi β†’
BHB
Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc.
C 65/100 18.6x β€” 6.9% +2.45% $678.0M /bhb-vs-rrbi β†’
MSBI
Midland States Bancorp Inc.
D+ 54/100 β€” β€” -22.0% +1.62% $682.5M /msbi-vs-rrbi β†’
BCAL
California BanCorp
C 62/100 10.9x β€” 10.9% +1.86% $690.6M /bcal-vs-rrbi β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001071236 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) reported GAAP revenue of $1.41B (+6.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.32B , and +796.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $42.8M, operating cash flow of $44.8M, and free cash flow of $42.2M (+26.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, RRBI closed FY2025 with $3.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.41B $42.8M $44.8M $42.2M $3.35B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.32B $34.2M $38.3M $33.4M $3.15B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $157.0M $34.9M $40.1M $40.1M β€” β€”

3. RRBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RRBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Red River Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: RRBI) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $107.77 (+4.32% 1D, market cap $680.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RRBI ranks #113 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RRBI compare to CBNK and BHB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), RRBI carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.7x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 11.7%. By comparison, CBNK (Capital Bancorp Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 12.0x, ROIC 14.2%, cap $679.6M) and BHB (Bar Harbor Bankshares Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 6.9%, cap $678.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while CBNK leads on capital efficiency (14.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RRBI?

Per RRBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001071236), Red River Bancshares Inc. generated $1.41B in revenue (+6.4% YoY), $42.8M in net income, and $42.2M in free cash flow against $3.35B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RRBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RRBI last traded at $107.77 (+4.32% on volume of 187,917 shares), positioning the stock +6.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($101.66) and +14.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($94.47). Across its 52-week range of $64.52 to $104.95, RRBI sits at the 100.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±4.3% ($103.14 to $112.40).

Direct Sub-Reports: RRBI RQD Cockpit RRBI 12M Forecast RRBI Earnings & Move RRBI Dividends & DRIP RRBI Insiders & 13F RRBI Whale Options RRBI Profit Sankey RRBI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 70/100 (B-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RRBI β€” Red River Bancshares Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 70/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $107.77 (+4.32% 1D, market capitalization $680.2M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (14/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.7%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of 6.28%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (14/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (13/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) is a NASDAQ-listed company classified in the Financials sector and the Major Banks industry,..7B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) reported $1.41B in annual revenue (up from $1.32B in FY2024, +6.4% YoY) and $42.8M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($157.0M revenue, $34.9M net income) through FY2025, RRBI scaled operating cash flow to $44.8M and free cash flow to $42.2M, backed by $3.35B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (B- β€’ RQD 70/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 6.28% and institutional whale pillar of 14/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 14/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 14/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $64.52 – $104.95 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.7x trailing P/E against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. Sector context. Sector correlations are not quantified in the source data. The 2nd-order ripples a prospective investor should monitor are therefore not identifiable from the provided material; the beta of 1.0 per the market data is the only available indication of market co-movement.

  • Key Question #1: Can RRBI sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and 11.7% ROIC against Major Banks peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.41B and free cash flow of $42.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RRBI's 14.6x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RRBI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Red River Bancshares Inc. (RRBI) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to RRBI Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RRBI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $107.77?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RRBI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RRBI:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Options Flow Specialist πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $132.24 (+28.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Insider conviction scores highest at 16/20 in the Roarable RQD rating, alongside a 6.28% FCF yield and a forward P/E of 14.6.

Picked up a starter position in RRBI in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $103.31. Insider conviction scores highest at 16/20 in the Roarable RQD rating, alongside a 6.28% FCF yield and a forward P/E of 14.6.. Trading inside a $64.52–$104.95 52-week range with 6.28% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Major Banks multiples expand this quarter.

EarningsSniper πŸ‚ BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Shorting a 14/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $103.31 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $78.52 (-24.0%)
Spot @ $103.31

Valuation & margin reality check on RRBI at $103.31 before chasing here

Fading this rally in RRBI at $103.31. Valuation & margin reality check on RRBI at $103.31 before chasing here. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $103.31 (52-wk range $64.52–$104.95), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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