Sunrun Inc. (RUN) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$7.48 -1.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.45

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $1.80B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on RUN Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $7.48 (-1.45% 1D, market cap $1.80B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, RUN ranks #444 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RUN compare to ALG and MFP in the Industrials sector?
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Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), RUN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.2%. By comparison, ALG (Alamo Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 17.2x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.80B) and MFP (Midera Food Processing Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALG leads on earnings multiple (17.2x) while ALG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RUN?
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Per RUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001469367), Sunrun Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+45.1% YoY), $449.9K in net income, and -$421.4M in free cash flow against $22.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.45 (-0.45%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (6)SEC (10)Macro (3)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.8% Base Target
$23 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE RUN RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RUN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RUN SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (40% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+6/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.8) create a -16 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$7.79-2.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$7.57-0.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$7.53-0.7% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$7.48-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RUN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RUN currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.06) and Max Pain ($7.85) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $23.05.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RUN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RUN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
0.6% Total Yield
0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 0.6% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
0% (100% Reinvested)
Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (15.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $40,809

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $245/yr
$11.5K
Yr 1
$13.2K
Yr 2
$15.2K
Yr 3
$17.6K
Yr 4
$20.2K
Yr 5
$23.3K
Yr 6
$26.8K
Yr 7
$30.8K
Yr 8
$35.5K
Yr 9
$40.8K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RUN)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RUN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
RUN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.10%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $7.59H $7.59L $7.48C $7.48VOL 9.88M
RES: $6.36SUP: $6.36SMA50: $8.06SMA200: $12.32
$17.49$14.59$11.68$8.78$5.88RES $6.36SUP $6.36$7.482026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RUN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +45.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RUN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RUN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RUN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RUN)

Industrials Rank #444 of 485 ⚔️ ALG vs RUN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (RUN vs. ALG, MFP, ATS, HSAI)

Industry: Industrial Machinery/Components (208 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sunrun Inc. (RUN) ranks #444 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #216 by equity capitalization ($1.80B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALG leads on earnings valuation at 17.2x trailing P/E, while ALG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.3% ROIC and 24.8% gross margin. ALG currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with RUN at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RUN ACTIVE
Sunrun Inc.
E 25/100 — — -3.2% -1.45% $1.80B Benchmark Subject
ALG
Alamo Group Inc.
C- 60/100 17.2x 24.8% 14.3% +0.70% $1.80B /alg-vs-run →
MFP
Midera Food Processing Inc.
D 48/100 — — — -3.49% $1.81B /mfp-vs-run →
ATS
ATS Corporation
D 45/100 — — — -3.67% $1.78B /ats-vs-run →
HSAI
Hesai Group
D- 38/100 32.7x 41.8% 1.8% -6.09% $1.91B /hsai-vs-run →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001469367

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Sunrun Inc. (RUN) reported GAAP revenue of $2.96B (+45.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.04B , and +30.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $449.9K, operating cash flow of -$421.4M, and free cash flow of -$421.4M (+45.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RUN closed FY2025 with $22.61B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $2.96B $449.9K -$421.4M -$421.4M $22.61B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $2.04B -$2.85B -$766.2M -$767.7M $19.90B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.26B -$1.60B -$820.7M -$820.7M — —

3. RUN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RUN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sunrun Inc. (NASDAQ: RUN) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $7.48 (-1.45% 1D, market cap $1.80B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, RUN ranks #444 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RUN compare to ALG and MFP in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Industrial Machinery/Components), RUN carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -3.2%. By comparison, ALG (Alamo Group Inc.) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 17.2x, ROIC 14.3%, cap $1.80B) and MFP (Midera Food Processing Inc.) posts a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.81B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALG leads on earnings multiple (17.2x) while ALG leads on capital efficiency (14.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RUN?

Per RUN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001469367), Sunrun Inc. generated $2.96B in revenue (+45.1% YoY), $449.9K in net income, and -$421.4M in free cash flow against $22.61B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RUN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RUN last traded at $7.48 (-1.45% on volume of 9,884,819 shares), positioning the stock -7.20% below its 50-day simple moving average ($8.06) and -39.29% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.32). Across its 52-week range of $6.78 to $21.95, RUN sits at the 4.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($6.66 to $8.30).

RUN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does RUN pay a dividend and is it safe?

Sunrun Inc. (RUN) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 0.6% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

RUN — Sunrun Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:27:36Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, Sunrun Inc. scores 25 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 1/20 (ROIC -3.2%; FCF yield -23.05%); Whale 13F Flow at 6/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 3/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 0.2; Piotroski F 4/9; Debt/Equity 0.5).

For a prospective investor, the cash engine pillar is the weakest and carries the most weight in the interpretation: a negative ROIC and a deeply negative FCF yield indicate the business is not currently converting capital into free cash flow on a per-dollar basis. The forensic balance sheet pillar is also low, with an Altman Z of 0.2 and a Piotroski F of 4/9, which the rating frames as elevated distress and weak financial strength signals. The whale and insider pillars score in the middle-to-low range, meaning institutional and insider flow does not offset the fundamental weakness in the rating. The macro pillar reflects a Beta of 1.0, indicating market-equivalent sensitivity, with the rating noting sector sensitivity without a favorable regime fit. Upside drivers would need to come from a change in cash generation; the source data does not establish one. Any valuation tradeoff must be weighed against the negative FCF yield and the forensic distress readings. This brief is educational and not personalized financial advice.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$2957.0M$-126.1M$0.4MN/A$-421.4MN/AN/A
FY 2024$2037.7M$-3695.2M$-2846.2MN/A$-767.7MN/AN/A
FY 2023$2259.8M$-1978.6M$-1604.5MN/A$-820.7MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income was negative in all three reported periods, and FY 2025 showed net income of $0.4M against an operating loss of $-126.1M. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -4.3%, and net margin is 0%. ROIC is -3.2%. The Altman Z-Score is 0.2 and the Piotroski F-Score is 4/9 per the Roarable RQD rating, with Debt/Equity at 0.5. Cash and debt balances are not available in source data.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Yahoo Finance (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A report suggesting the stock could be undervalued ahead of a Q3 earnings date.
  • StockInvest.us (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A price forecast report covering market action and institutional positioning.
  • Seeking Alpha (YELLOW, MARKET WIRE): A report of a 10% rally rebounding from a 52-week low.
  • 24/7 Wall St. (GREEN, CATALYST): A report of solar stocks rebounding, with Sunrun surging 10%.
  • TradingView (RED, RISK WATCH): A report of a 12-month price target cut to $15.4, implying 102% upside.
  • Investing.com (RED, RISK WATCH): A report that Jefferies cut its price target on rising Treasury yields.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What are the cash and debt balances, which are listed as N/A in the reported financials?
  • What is the EPS for each reported period, which is listed as N/A?
  • What drove the swing from a $-2846.2M net loss in FY 2024 to a $0.4M net income in FY 2025 despite an operating loss?
  • What are the specific products, customers, and revenue model that the sector classification does not describe?
  • What do the price target revisions cited in the news wire rest on, given that no analyst data is provided?

RUN Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sunrun Inc. (RUN) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RUN Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RUN Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $7.48?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RUN 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RUN:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $6.68 (-12.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is RUN (E • RQD 25/100) a Buy at $7.59?

Welcome to the RUN (Sunrun Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 25/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Industrial Machinery/Components. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

VA ValDiscipline Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.84 (-23.1%)
Spot @ $7.59

Pump the brakes on RUN — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on RUN, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Sunrun Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $9.56 (+26.0%)
Spot @ $7.59

RUN cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on RUN, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Industrial Machinery/Components and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $7.59 (52-wk range $6.78 - $21.95), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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