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Why RWAY Stock slipped -0.61% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$6.48 -0.61% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.46

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $273.3M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is RWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (NASDAQ: RWAY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $6.48 (-0.61% 1D, market cap $273.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RWAY ranks #598 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does RWAY compare to HRZN and HTT in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RWAY carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, HRZN (Horizon Technology Finance Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $272.8M) and HTT (High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.2%, cap $279.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RWAY leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while XYF leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWAY?
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Per RWAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653384), Runway Growth Finance Corp. generated $403.2M in revenue (-12.0% YoY), $34.0M in net income, and $186.3M in free cash flow against $960.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.46 (-0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 46.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510052
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (12)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.6% Base Target
$11 Bull$6 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE RWAY RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for RWAY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY RWAY SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 46.2% FCF Margin ($186.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.1) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
44
Grade D$6.40-2.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
47
Grade D$6.26+2.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
49
Grade D$6.43+0.8% Next Q
Current
52
Grade D+$6.48-1.1% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (44) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a RWAY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While RWAY currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.54) and Max Pain ($6.80) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $10.56.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $RWAY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “RWAY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why RWAY Stock slipped -0.61% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) slipped -0.61% to $6.48, trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($5.19 – $10.06). Stretched risk/reward at 8x P/E (7% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 26% of its 52-week range ($5.19 – $10.06) with RSI-14 at 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.4% around $6.48 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $186.3M annual free cash flow.
Live RWAY Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring RWAY)

  • ✓Walkthrough of RWAY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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RWAY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -5.95%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $6.60H $6.60L $6.48C $6.48VOL 330.9K
RES: $6.65SUP: $6.37SMA50: $6.54SMA200: $6.75
$9.38$8.25$7.11$5.97$4.84RES $6.65SUP $6.37$6.482026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

RWAY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 RWAY Butterfly Map → + Track RWAY →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -12.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on RWAY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for RWAY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for RWAY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (RWAY)

Financials Rank #598 of 1097 ⚔️ HRZN vs RWAY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (RWAY vs. HRZN, HTT, XYF, BTBT)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) ranks #598 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #832 by equity capitalization ($273.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, RWAY leads on earnings valuation at 8.1x trailing P/E, while XYF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. XYF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with RWAY at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
RWAY ACTIVE
Runway Growth Finance Corp.
D+ 52/100 8.1x — 7.0% -0.61% $273.3M Benchmark Subject
HRZN
Horizon Technology Finance Corporation
D 48/100 — — -0.8% -1.23% $272.8M /hrzn-vs-rway →
HTT
High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share
D- 35/100 — — -5.2% +0.56% $279.5M /htt-vs-rway →
XYF
X Financial each representing six (Class A)
D+ 53/100 — — 18.8% +1.68% $260.8M /xyf-vs-rway →
BTBT
Bit Digital Inc.
E 23/100 — — -12.0% -8.05% $288.5M /btbt-vs-rway →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001653384 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) reported GAAP revenue of $403.2M (-12.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $458.4M , and -5.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $34.0M, operating cash flow of $186.3M, and free cash flow of $186.3M (+167.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, RWAY closed FY2025 with $960.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $403.2M $34.0M $186.3M $186.3M $960.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $458.4M $73.6M $69.8M $69.8M $1.09B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $427.3M $44.3M $112.4M $112.4M — —

3. RWAY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is RWAY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Runway Growth Finance Corp. (NASDAQ: RWAY) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $6.48 (-0.61% 1D, market cap $273.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 12/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, RWAY ranks #598 in composite RQD confidence.

How does RWAY compare to HRZN and HTT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), RWAY carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.0%. By comparison, HRZN (Horizon Technology Finance Corporation) holds a D grade (48/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.8%, cap $272.8M) and HTT (High Templar Tech Limited each representing one Class A ordinary share) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -5.2%, cap $279.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, RWAY leads on earnings multiple (8.1x) while XYF leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for RWAY?

Per RWAY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001653384), Runway Growth Finance Corp. generated $403.2M in revenue (-12.0% YoY), $34.0M in net income, and $186.3M in free cash flow against $960.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is RWAY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

RWAY last traded at $6.48 (-0.61% on volume of 253,909 shares), positioning the stock -0.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.54) and -4.00% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.75). Across its 52-week range of $5.19 to $10.06, RWAY sits at the 26.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($6.19 to $6.77).

Direct Sub-Reports: RWAY RQD Cockpit RWAY 12M Forecast RWAY Earnings & Move RWAY Dividends & DRIP RWAY Insiders & 13F RWAY Whale Options RWAY Profit Sankey RWAY News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 52/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

RWAY — Runway Growth Finance Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 52/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.48 (-0.61% 1D, market capitalization $273.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (12/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) is a NASDAQ-listed operating company in the Finance: Consumer Services industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $273.3M. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 0%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 7% (free cash flow yield of 0%). Within the Finance: Consumer Services peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) reported $403.2M in annual revenue (up from $458.4M in FY2024, -12.0% YoY) and $34.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($427.3M revenue, $44.3M net income) through FY2025, RWAY scaled operating cash flow to $186.3M and free cash flow to $186.3M, backed by $960.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 52/100): Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.19 – $10.06 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Sector is Financials and industry is Finance: Consumer Services; no sector correlations are provided. — for 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can RWAY sustain or expand its — operating margin and 7.0% ROIC against Finance: Consumer Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $403.2M and free cash flow of $186.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is RWAY's 7.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

RWAY Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Runway Growth Finance Corp. (RWAY) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to RWAY Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

RWAY Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.48?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON RWAY 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on RWAY:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $7.69 (+17.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported FCF rose from $69.8M in FY 2024 to $186.3M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 8.1.

Here is why I am bullish on RWAY here at $6.52: Reported FCF rose from $69.8M in FY 2024 to $186.3M in FY 2025 while the stock trades at a trailing P/E of 8.1.. Compare RWAY's 0.0% operating margin and 7.0% ROIC against the rest of Finance: Consumer Services. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $6.19 are getting bought.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — RWAY's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.54 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $6.52

The RQD rating is D+ with a 0% FCF yield, a 0% dividend yield, and Macro Regime Fit scored at 7/20.

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short RWAY above $6.52. The RQD rating is D+ with a 0% FCF yield, a 0% dividend yield, and Macro Regime Fit scored at 7/20.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20) and FCF yield (0.0%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $10.06.

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