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Stock Ratings / Financials / SAFT / earnings
UFCS (71) UVE (74) HMN (57) KMPR (59) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±1.8% Move

$104.24 +0.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.55

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 11% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $1.53B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SAFT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Safety Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFT) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $104.24 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SAFT ranks #52 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SAFT compare to UFCS and UVE in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SAFT carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, UFCS (United Fire Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.46B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFT?
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Per SAFT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001172052), Safety Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.26B in revenue (+12.8% YoY), $99.3M in net income, and $192.0M in free cash flow against $2.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $104.55 (+0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 15.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510074
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B+ · Rk B-
Cash (15)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (15)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$132 Bull$112 Base$85 Bear
📬 FREE SAFT RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SAFT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SAFT SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 15.2% FCF Margin ($192.0M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$103.86+0.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$104.13+0.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$104.26+0% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$104.24+7.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SAFT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, SAFT faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($103.71) or 200D SMA ($84.94) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($111.75) toward Bear Floor ($85.48).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SAFT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SAFT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±1.8% Swing Band

±$1.88 Expected Swing
$102.36 (-1.8%)Spot $104.24$106.12 (+1.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SAFT Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 74/100

Trailing EPS: $6.76 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.8%

Model Bullish Setup (74/100)Model Risk Weight (26/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.26B$99.3M$192.0M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.12B$70.7M$124.3M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$931.0M$18.9M$52.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SAFT & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SAFT
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
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SAFT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +38.45%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $104.0H $104.2L $103.9C $104.2VOL 121.1K
RES: $104.4SUP: $76.91SMA50: $103.7SMA200: $84.94
$106.9$96.34$85.78$75.21$64.65RES $104.4SUP $76.91$104.22026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SAFT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SAFT Butterfly Map → + Track SAFT →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +12.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SAFT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SAFT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SAFT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SAFT)

Financials Rank #52 of 1097 ⚔️ UFCS vs SAFT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SAFT vs. UFCS, UVE, HMN, KMPR)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) ranks #52 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #479 by equity capitalization ($1.53B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVE leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while UVE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SAFT ACTIVE
Safety Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 15.4x — 11.1% +0.33% $1.53B Benchmark Subject
UFCS
United Fire Group Inc.
B- 71/100 12.4x — 12.6% +0.44% $1.46B /ufcs-vs-saft →
UVE
UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
B 74/100 7.2x — 33.2% +1.09% $1.34B /uve-vs-saft →
HMN
Horace Mann Educators Corporation
D+ 57/100 11.6x — 10.9% +2.27% $1.89B /hmn-vs-saft →
KMPR
Kemper Corporation
C- 59/100 13.4x — 5.3% +5.60% $1.96B /kmpr-vs-saft →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001172052 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.26B (+12.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.12B , and +35.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $99.3M, operating cash flow of $194.5M, and free cash flow of $192.0M (+54.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, SAFT closed FY2025 with $2.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.26B $99.3M $194.5M $192.0M $2.47B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.12B $70.7M $128.7M $124.3M $2.27B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $931.0M $18.9M $52.1M $52.1M — —

3. SAFT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SAFT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Safety Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SAFT) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $104.24 (+0.33% 1D, market cap $1.53B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SAFT ranks #52 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SAFT compare to UFCS and UVE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SAFT carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 11.1%. By comparison, UFCS (United Fire Group Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 12.4x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $1.46B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.34B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SAFT?

Per SAFT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001172052), Safety Insurance Group Inc. generated $1.26B in revenue (+12.8% YoY), $99.3M in net income, and $192.0M in free cash flow against $2.47B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SAFT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SAFT last traded at $104.24 (+0.33% on volume of 123,766 shares), positioning the stock +0.51% above its 50-day simple moving average ($103.71) and +22.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($84.94). Across its 52-week range of $67.38 to $104.35, SAFT sits at the 99.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($102.36 to $106.12).

Direct Sub-Reports: SAFT RQD Cockpit SAFT 12M Forecast SAFT Earnings & Move SAFT Dividends & DRIP SAFT Insiders & 13F SAFT Whale Options SAFT Profit Sankey SAFT News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SAFT — Safety Insurance Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 74/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $104.24 (+0.33% 1D, market capitalization $1.53B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.1%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 12.58%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (15/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Safety Insurance Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Financials sector, within the Property-Casualty Insurers industry. It has a market capitalization of $1.5B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) reported $1.26B in annual revenue (up from $1.12B in FY2024, +12.8% YoY) and $99.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($931.0M revenue, $18.9M net income) through FY2025, SAFT scaled operating cash flow to $194.5M and free cash flow to $192.0M, backed by $2.47B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 74/100): Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $67.38 – $104.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 15.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

— the supply chain is NONE, with an empty list of butterfly links. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are identified in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can SAFT sustain or expand its — operating margin and 11.1% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.26B and free cash flow of $192.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SAFT's 12.9x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SAFT Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Safety Insurance Group Inc. (SAFT) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SAFT Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SAFT Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $104.24?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SAFT 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SAFT:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
QU QuantViper RQD DEBATE OPENER • Systematic Momentum Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $137.15 (+32.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider conviction (16/20) and a 12.58% FCF yield support the rating even as the stock trades near its 52-week high.

Long SAFT at $103.90 targeting $137.15. Insider conviction (16/20) and a 12.58% FCF yield support the rating even as the stock trades near its 52-week high.. Institutional whale score is 15/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $67.38 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SAFT's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $81.04 (-22.0%)
Spot @ $103.90

Forensic balance sheet scores lowest at 13/20, with Piotroski F of 6/9 and an Altman Z of 2.5 offering limited margin of safety.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on SAFT: Forensic balance sheet scores lowest at 13/20, with Piotroski F of 6/9 and an Altman Z of 2.5 offering limited margin of safety.. At 15.4x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Property-Casualty Insurers triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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