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Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±4.8% Move

$100.76 +1.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $101.36

Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 7% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $5.83B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SIGI Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SIGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Selective Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGI) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $100.76 (+1.95% 1D, market cap $5.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SIGI ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SIGI compare to MTG and RLI in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SIGI carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $5.83B) and RLI (RLI Corp.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 14.7x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $5.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTG leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SIGI?
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Per SIGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000230557), Selective Insurance Group Inc. generated $5.34B in revenue (+9.8% YoY), $466.4M in net income, and $1.19B in free cash flow against $15.16B in total assets and $5.20B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $101.35 (+0.59%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 22.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B
025507510074
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B · Rk B
Cash (12)Whales (16)SEC (15)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target
$127 Bull$108 Base$83 Bear
📬 FREE SIGI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SIGI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SIGI SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 10.3% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
66
Grade B-$86.21+5.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
69
Grade B-$91.08+7.3% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
71
Grade B$97.73+3.1% Next Q
Current
74
Grade B$100.76+7.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SIGI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, SIGI faces multiple-compression risk if 12.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($90.04) or 200D SMA ($87.83) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($108.01) toward Bear Floor ($82.62).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SIGI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SIGI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±4.8% Swing Band

±$4.84 Expected Swing
$95.92 (-4.8%)Spot $100.76$105.60 (+4.8%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

SIGI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 74/100

Trailing EPS: $7.91 • YoY Revenue Growth: 9.8%

Model Bullish Setup (74/100)Model Risk Weight (26/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$5.34B$466.4M$1.19B52%
FY 20242024-12-31$4.86B$207.0M$1.07B52%
FY 20232023-12-31$4.23B$365.2M$568.5M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating SIGI & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

  • ✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on SIGI
  • ✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SIGI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +24.58%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $99.32H $100.8L $98.83C $100.8VOL 394.7K
RES: $102.8SUP: $78.56SMA50: $90.04SMA200: $87.83
$102.8$96.48$90.20$83.92$77.64RES $102.8SUP $78.56$100.82026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SIGI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SIGI Butterfly Map → + Track SIGI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SIGI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SIGI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SIGI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SIGI)

Financials Rank #48 of 1097 ⚔️ MTG vs SIGI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (SIGI vs. MTG, RLI, MCY, ESNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) ranks #48 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #248 by equity capitalization ($5.83B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MTG leads on earnings valuation at 8.0x trailing P/E, while MCY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.4% ROIC and — gross margin. RLI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 80/100 (B+) compared with SIGI at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SIGI ACTIVE
Selective Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 12.6x — 6.8% +1.95% $5.83B Benchmark Subject
MTG
MGIC Investment Corporation
B 72/100 8.0x — 13.2% +1.87% $5.83B /mtg-vs-sigi →
RLI
RLI Corp.
B+ 80/100 14.7x — 13.5% +3.08% $5.98B /rli-vs-sigi →
MCY
Mercury General Corporation
B 72/100 10.5x — 22.4% +1.28% $5.67B /mcy-vs-sigi →
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd.
B+ 77/100 8.8x — 11.9% +1.82% $6.02B /esnt-vs-sigi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000230557 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) reported GAAP revenue of $5.34B (+9.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.86B , and +26.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $466.4M, operating cash flow of $1.23B, and free cash flow of $1.19B (+11.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SIGI closed FY2025 with $15.16B in total assets against $5.20B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $5.34B $466.4M $1.23B $1.19B $15.16B $5.20B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.86B $207.0M $1.10B $1.07B $13.51B $4.68B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.23B $365.2M $758.9M $568.5M $5.08B $1.19B

3. SIGI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SIGI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Selective Insurance Group Inc. (NASDAQ: SIGI) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $100.76 (+1.95% 1D, market cap $5.83B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, SIGI ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SIGI compare to MTG and RLI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), SIGI carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.6x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 6.8%. By comparison, MTG (MGIC Investment Corporation) holds a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 8.0x, ROIC 13.2%, cap $5.83B) and RLI (RLI Corp.) posts a B+ grade (80/100 RQD, P/E 14.7x, ROIC 13.5%, cap $5.98B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MTG leads on earnings multiple (8.0x) while MCY leads on capital efficiency (22.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SIGI?

Per SIGI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000230557), Selective Insurance Group Inc. generated $5.34B in revenue (+9.8% YoY), $466.4M in net income, and $1.19B in free cash flow against $15.16B in total assets and $5.20B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SIGI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SIGI last traded at $100.76 (+1.95% on volume of 634,110 shares), positioning the stock +11.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($90.04) and +14.72% above its 200-day simple moving average ($87.83). Across its 52-week range of $72.78 to $101.25, SIGI sits at the 98.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 73.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($95.92 to $105.60).

Direct Sub-Reports: SIGI RQD Cockpit SIGI 12M Forecast SIGI Earnings & Move SIGI Dividends & DRIP SIGI Insiders & 13F SIGI Whale Options SIGI Profit Sankey SIGI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 74/100 (B) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SIGI — Selective Insurance Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 74/100, corresponding to a B letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $100.76 (+1.95% 1D, market capitalization $5.83B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 6.8%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 10.7%, and free cash flow yield of 20.38%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.16x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Selective Insurance Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed company in the Financials sector, Property-Casualty Insurers industry (and profile). The profile describes the company as a Property-Casualty insurer with a market capitalization of $5.9B. Revenue and earnings figures are reported in the Financial Trend section.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) reported $5.34B in annual revenue (up from $4.86B in FY2024, +9.8% YoY) and $466.4M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.23B revenue, $365.2M net income) through FY2025, SIGI scaled operating cash flow to $1.23B and free cash flow to $1.19B, backed by $15.16B in total assets against $5.20B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B • RQD 74/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $72.78 – $101.25 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.6x trailing P/E and 14.8x EV/EBITDA against 10.7% operating margins and a 1.16x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Property-Casualty Insurers (Financials), SIGI carries a macro regime beta of 1.16 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can SIGI sustain or expand its 10.7% operating margin and 6.8% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $5.34B and free cash flow of $1.19B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $5.20B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SIGI's 11.7x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.16x)?

SIGI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Selective Insurance Group Inc. (SIGI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SIGI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SIGI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $100.76?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SIGI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SIGI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $119.58 (+21.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Strong insider conviction (17/20) and a 20.38% FCF yield indicate cash generation and insider confidence not fully reflected in a 12.6

Strong insider conviction (17/20) and a 20.38% FCF yield indicate cash generation and insider confidence not fully reflected in a 12.6 P/E.. When you look under the hood at SIGI, Fundamental Cash Engine is 12/20 with 0.0% gross margins and 6.8% ROIC. Bears are staring in the rearview mirror while institutional 13F flow (16/20) has been quietly accumulating below $101.25. My 12M target is $119.58.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@RiskArb_Desk Fair point on 12.6x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Property-Casualty Insurers. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

RI RiskArb_Desk RQD DEBATE OPENER • Hedged Event Driven 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $84.99 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $98.83

Debt rose from $1.19B to $5.20B over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 6.8% ROIC and a 1.16 beta, leaving the stock exposed to leverage and ma

Careful chasing SIGI at $98.83. Debt rose from $1.19B to $5.20B over FY 2023–FY 2025 with a 6.8% ROIC and a 1.16 beta, leaving the stock exposed to leverage and market swings.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 10.7%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $84.99 on multiple compression.

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