Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / SMPL / forecast

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The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$11.25 +5.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.34

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 62/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $925.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on SMPL Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 62/100 at a spot price of $11.25 (+5.54% 1D, market cap $925.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 14/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, SMPL ranks #39 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMPL compare to BRBR and SENEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), SMPL carries a Roarable C (62/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.9x, gross margin of 36.2%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, BRBR (BellRing Brands Inc.) holds a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E 4.9x, ROIC 46.3%, cap $1.05B) and SENEA (Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 16.1%, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BRBR leads on earnings multiple (4.9x) while BRBR leads on capital efficiency (46.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMPL?

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Per SMPL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30, CIK 0001702744), The Simply Good Foods Company generated $1.45B in revenue (+9.0% YoY), $103.6M in net income, and $157.9M in free cash flow against $2.45B in total assets and $396.7M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.34 (+0.81%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 10.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 62/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+1.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMPL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (62/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SMPL SCORES 62/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+14/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 2.13 (WATCH ZONE (1.8–3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-13 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$10.43+5.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$11.00-8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$10.09+11.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C$11.25+0.7% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → C (62)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SMPL Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 62/100 (C) score, SMPL faces multiple-compression risk if 8.9x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 33.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($10.41) or 200D SMA ($12.80) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($11.45) toward Bear Floor ($8.93).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMPL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SMPL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 62%NO 38%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SMPL Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $11.25: 888.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $8.93

$7,938

$-2,062 (-20.6%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $11.45

$10,178

+$178 (+1.8%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $23.10

$20,533

+$10,533 (+105.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$12	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$22	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$10	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SMPL Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

SMPL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -13.19%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $10.84H $11.25L $10.66C $11.25VOL 2.88M

RES: $11.31SUP: $9.06SMA50: $10.41SMA200: $12.80

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMPL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMPL Butterfly Map → + Track SMPL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.4%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +9.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMPL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMPL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMPL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMPL)

Consumer Staples Rank #39 of 146 ⚔️ BRBR vs SMPL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (SMPL vs. BRBR, SENEA, SENEB, OFRM)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) ranks #39 by composite RQD confidence (62/100, grade C) and #76 by equity capitalization ($925.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BRBR leads on earnings valuation at 4.9x trailing P/E, while BRBR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 46.3% ROIC and 33.3% gross margin. BRBR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with SMPL at 62/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SMPL ACTIVE The Simply Good Foods Company	C	62/100	8.9x	36.2%	6.4%	+5.54%	$925.9M	Benchmark Subject
BRBR BellRing Brands Inc.	B	73/100	4.9x	33.3%	46.3%	+1.21%	$1.05B	/brbr-vs-smpl →
SENEA Seneca Foods Corp. (Class A)	D+	53/100	9.4x	—	16.1%	+0.57%	$1.08B	/senea-vs-smpl →
SENEB Seneca Foods Corp. (Class B)	D+	53/100	9.4x	—	16.1%	0.00%	$1.08B	/seneb-vs-smpl →
OFRM Once Upon a Farm PBC	D	45/100	—	—	—	-5.95%	$670.6M	/ofrm-vs-smpl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-08-30 • CIK 0001702744

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-08-30), The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) reported GAAP revenue of $1.45B (+9.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.33B , and +16.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $103.6M, operating cash flow of $178.5M, and free cash flow of $157.9M (-24.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMPL closed FY2025 with $2.45B in total assets against $396.7M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-08-30	$1.45B	$103.6M	$178.5M	$157.9M	$2.45B	$396.7M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-08-31	$1.33B	$139.3M	$215.7M	$210.0M	$2.43B	$348.0M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-08-26	$1.24B	$133.6M	$171.1M	$171.1M	—	—

3. SMPL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SMPL compare to BRBR and SENEA in the Consumer Staples sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMPL?

Where is SMPL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMPL last traded at $11.25 (+5.54% on volume of 1,983,794 shares), positioning the stock +8.07% above its 50-day simple moving average ($10.41) and -12.11% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.80). Across its 52-week range of $9.38 to $22.00, SMPL sits at the 14.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.4% ($10.08 to $12.42).

SMPL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is SMPL's 12-month stock price target?

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $11.45 (+1.8% from $11.25), with a bull-case target of $23.1 and a bear-case floor of $8.93.

Is SMPL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates SMPL C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 62/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: SMPL RQD Cockpit SMPL 12M Forecast SMPL Earnings & Move SMPL Dividends & DRIP SMPL Insiders & 13F SMPL Whale Options SMPL Profit Sankey SMPL News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 62/100 (C) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

SMPL — The Simply Good Foods Company: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5

As of: 2026-11-02T15:31:47Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, SMPL scores 62 out of 100, graded C, with the verdict "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." Across its five pillars: Fundamental Cash Engine scores 11 of 20 (ROIC 6.4%; FCF yield 17.05%); Whale 13F Flow scores 7 of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit scores 13 of 20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet scores 14 of 20 (Altman Z 2.13; Piotroski F 8/9; Debt/Equity 0.23).

For a prospective investor, the composite reads as balanced rather than decisive. The strongest pillar is insider conviction, which suggests insider-side buying or selling activity is comparatively supportive in the rating's framework. The weakest pillar is institutional 13F flow, which indicates little clear institutional accumulation signal. The forensic balance sheet is reasonably sound on the cited metrics, while the fundamental cash engine is only moderate given ROIC of 6.4%, even though the reported FCF yield of 17.05% is high. Upside drivers would be a sustained FCF yield with improving returns on capital and renewed institutional accumulation. Valuation tradeoffs are visible in the low multiples (P/E TTM 8.9, Forward P/E 8.3, EV/EBITDA 6.5) against a stock down meaningfully from its 52-week high, which may reflect risks the source data does not detail. This is an educational summary, not personalized advice.

Snapshot

Price	Market Cap	P/E (TTM)	Forward P/E	EV/EBITDA	EPS (TTM)	Dividend Yield	Beta	52-Wk Range	ROIC %
$10.66	$925.9M	8.9	8.3	6.5	1.19	0%	1.0	$9.38 - $22	6.4%

Financial Trend

Period	Revenue	Operating Income	Net Income	EPS	FCF	Cash	Debt
FY 2025	$1450.9M	$156.9M	$103.6M	N/A	$157.9M	$194.1M	$396.7M
FY 2024	$1331.3M	$206.5M	$139.3M	N/A	$210.0M	$121.8M	$348.0M
FY 2023	$1242.7M	$204.9M	$133.6M	N/A	$171.1M	N/A	N/A

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $1242.7M (FY 2023) to $1450.9M (FY 2025), while operating income and net income declined from FY 2024 to FY 2025. Per the market data, ROIC is 6.4% and net margin 7.1%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, Altman Z is 2.13, Piotroski F is 8/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.23, which together describe a balance sheet the rating treats as comparatively strong. Cash rose to $194.1M in FY 2025 while debt rose to $396.7M.

Open Questions

What is driving the escalating topline concerns and weak outlook referenced in the news wire, and what do management's guidance figures show?
What are the allegations and scope of the securities class action, and what could the financial exposure be?
Why did operating and net income decline from FY 2024 to FY 2025 while revenue grew, and what is driving the rise in debt?
What explains the gap between the high reported FCF yield (17.05%) and the modest ROIC (6.4%)?
What are the company's products, customer concentration, and supply-chain dependencies?

SMPL Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMPL Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo! Finance Canada • 14h ago

The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) Stock Price, News, Quote & History

Yahoo! Finance Canada report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Morningstar • 17h ago

SMPL Shareholder Alert: October 13, 2026 Lead Plaintiff Deadline in The Simply Good Foods Company Securities Class Action - Contact Levi & Korsinsky

Morningstar report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Seeking Alpha • 20h ago

Simply Good Foods: Topline Issues Are Escalating (NASDAQ:SMPL)

Seeking Alpha report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 23h ago

What Simply Good Foods (SMPL) Said on Its Q4 Earnings Call

TradingView report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The National Law Review • 1d ago

Kaplan Fox Encourages Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) In

The National Law Review report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Simply Good Foods beats estimates but stock edges down on weak outlook

Investing.com report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Business Wire • 1d ago

SMPL Deadline: Rosen Law Firm Urges The Simply Good Foods Company (NASDAQ: SMPL) Stockholders with Losses in Excess of $100K to Contact the Firm for Information About Their Rights

Business Wire report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Analysts Estimate Simply Good Foods (SMPL) to Report a Decline in Earnings: What to Look Out for

Yahoo Finance report covering The Simply Good Foods Company (SMPL) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMPL Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $11.25?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMPL 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION

RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $11.51 (+8.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is SMPL (C • RQD 62/100) a Buy at $10.66?

Welcome to the SMPL (The Simply Good Foods Company) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 62/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Packaged Foods. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $8.31 (-22.0%)

Spot @ $10.66

Pump the brakes on SMPL — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SMPL, but look at what you are paying: 8.9x trailing P/E with 36.2% gross margins. Unless The Simply Good Foods Company expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

DE DeltaGamma_99 Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $13.33 (+25.0%)

Spot @ $10.66

SMPL cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SMPL, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Packaged Foods and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $10.66 (52-wk range $9.38 - $22.00), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.