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Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$2.31 +1.76% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.31

Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $12.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SMSI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ: SMSI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (+1.76% 1D, market cap $12.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMSI ranks #630 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SMSI compare to YAAS and UPLD in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SMSI carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, YAAS (Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $11.9M) and UPLD (Upland Software Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $11.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMSI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPLD leads on capital efficiency (2.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMSI?
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Per SMSI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000948708), Smith Micro Software Inc. generated $17.4M in revenue (-15.5% YoY), -$30.1K in net income, and -$7.3M in free cash flow against $25.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.31 (+0.13%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510028
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (7)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.4% Base Target
$5 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE SMSI RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SMSI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SMSI SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+7/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 74.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
36
Grade E$2.40+5.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$2.54-9.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
31
Grade E$2.31+0% Next Q
Current
28
Grade E$2.31-10% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (36) → E (28)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SMSI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SMSI currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.64) and Max Pain ($2.43) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $4.88.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SMSI• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SMSI Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →
SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

SMSI Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →
▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (SMSI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on SMSI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SMSI)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SMSI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SMSI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -48.09%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $2.35H $2.35L $2.27C $2.31VOL 25.0K
RES: $1.97SUP: $2.16SMA50: $2.64SMA200: $3.10
$4.82$4.11$3.40$2.69$1.98RES $1.97SUP $2.16$2.312026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SMSI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SMSI Butterfly Map → + Track SMSI →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -15.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SMSI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SMSI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SMSI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SMSI)

Technology Rank #630 of 714 ⚔️ YAAS vs SMSI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SMSI vs. YAAS, UPLD, SAGT, VIDA)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) ranks #630 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #632 by equity capitalization ($12.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SMSI leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while UPLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 2.4% ROIC and 74.8% gross margin. SAGT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with SMSI at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SMSI ACTIVE
Smith Micro Software Inc.
E 28/100 — 74.1% -35.0% +1.76% $12.7M Benchmark Subject
YAAS
Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)
D- 36/100 — 33.4% — +3.50% $11.9M /yaas-vs-smsi →
UPLD
Upland Software Inc.
D- 40/100 — 74.8% 2.4% +0.50% $11.8M /upld-vs-smsi →
SAGT
SAGTEC GLOBAL LIMITED (Class A)
D+ 52/100 — — — +5.53% $14.0M /sagt-vs-smsi →
VIDA
VIDA Global Inc. (Class A)
D- 41/100 — — — -5.75% $14.4M /vida-vs-smsi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000948708

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) reported GAAP revenue of $17.4M (-15.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $20.6M , and -57.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.1K, operating cash flow of -$7.2M, and free cash flow of -$7.3M (+49.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, SMSI closed FY2025 with $25.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $17.4M -$30.1K -$7.2M -$7.3M $25.0M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $20.6M -$48.7K -$14.3M -$14.3M $48.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $40.9M -$24.4K -$7.0M -$7.0M — —

3. SMSI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SMSI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Smith Micro Software Inc. (NASDAQ: SMSI) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $2.31 (+1.76% 1D, market cap $12.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, SMSI ranks #630 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SMSI compare to YAAS and UPLD in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SMSI carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 74.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, YAAS (Youxin Technology Ltd (Class A)) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $11.9M) and UPLD (Upland Software Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.4%, cap $11.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SMSI leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while UPLD leads on capital efficiency (2.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SMSI?

Per SMSI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000948708), Smith Micro Software Inc. generated $17.4M in revenue (-15.5% YoY), -$30.1K in net income, and -$7.3M in free cash flow against $25.0M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SMSI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SMSI last traded at $2.31 (+1.76% on volume of 17,827 shares), positioning the stock -12.50% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.64) and -25.48% below its 200-day simple moving average ($3.10). Across its 52-week range of $2.05 to $4.65, SMSI sits at the 10.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($2.04 to $2.58).

Direct Sub-Reports: SMSI RQD Cockpit SMSI 12M Forecast SMSI Earnings & Move SMSI Dividends & DRIP SMSI Insiders & 13F SMSI Whale Options SMSI Profit Sankey SMSI News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 28/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SMSI — Smith Micro Software Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 28/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.31 (+1.76% 1D, market capitalization $12.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (7/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 74.1%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (8/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (3/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, operating in the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..0B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) reported $17.4M in annual revenue (up from $20.6M in FY2024, -15.5% YoY) and -$30.1K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($40.9M revenue, -$24.4K net income) through FY2025, SMSI scaled operating cash flow to -$7.2M and free cash flow to -$7.3M, backed by $25.0M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 28/100): Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 7/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.05 – $4.65 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (Technology), SMSI carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 74.1%.

  • Key Question #1: Can SMSI sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $17.4M and free cash flow of -$7.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SMSI's equity valuation to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SMSI Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Smith Micro Software Inc. (SMSI) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SMSI Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SMSI Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SMSI 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SMSI:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $2.77 (+22.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock trades at a $13.1M market cap with a 2.5 Altman Z-score, so any operating turnaround would be measured against a very small v

Picked up a starter position in SMSI in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $2.27. The stock trades at a $13.1M market cap with a 2.5 Altman Z-score, so any operating turnaround would be measured against a very small valuation base.. Trading inside a $2.05–$4.65 52-week range with 0.0% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — SMSI's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.93 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $2.27

Revenue fell from $40.9M to $17.4M, operating margin is -60%, ROIC is -35%, and free cash flow yield is 0%, while cash dropped to $1.5M

Revenue fell from $40.9M to $17.4M, operating margin is -60%, ROIC is -35%, and free cash flow yield is 0%, while cash dropped to $1.5M.. Look at the math on SMSI: paying current EV/EBITDA multiples for -35.0% ROIC and -60.0% operating margins leaves zero margin of safety if Computer Software: Prepackaged Software demand softens. I'd wait for a retest of $2.00 before getting long.

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