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Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$2.47 -4.26% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.45

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 22/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $391.1M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPCE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $2.47 (-4.26% 1D, market cap $391.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPCE ranks #968 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPCE compare to VRRM and GMRS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SPCE carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRRM (Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $425.6M) and GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $604.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPCE?
▼

Per SPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706946), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. generated $1.5M in revenue (-78.1% YoY), -$278.9K in net income, and -$438.2M in free cash flow against $803.2M in total assets and $276.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.45 (-0.96%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (22/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510022
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (6)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (5)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-16.2% Base Target
$9 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE SPCE RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPCE)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (22/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPCE SCORES 22/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 0% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$2.63-9.9% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
27
Grade E$2.37+13.5% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
25
Grade E$2.69-8.2% Next Q
Current
22
Grade E$2.47-11.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (30) → E (22)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SPCE Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SPCE currently carries a cautious 22/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.87) and Max Pain ($2.59) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.35.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPCE• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPCE Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 22%NO 78%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your SPCE Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $2.47: 4048.6 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $1.61
$6,518
$-3,482 (-34.8%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.07
$8,381
$-1,619 (-16.2%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $9.35
$37,854
+$27,854 (+278.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$274%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPCE)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SPCE's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SPCE // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.98%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.73H $2.73L $2.47C $2.47VOL 5.14M
RES: $3.28SUP: $2.13SMA50: $2.87SMA200: $2.92
$9.36$7.45$5.53$3.61$1.70RES $3.28SUP $2.13$2.472026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPCE Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPCE Butterfly Map → + Track SPCE →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -78.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPCE today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPCE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPCE today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPCE)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #968 of 1009 ⚔️ VRRM vs SPCE Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPCE vs. VRRM, GMRS, VTOL, FLYX)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) ranks #968 by composite RQD confidence (22/100, grade E) and #615 by equity capitalization ($391.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRRM leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while VRRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VTOL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with SPCE at 22/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SPCE ACTIVE
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.
E 22/100 — -30.0% -35.0% -4.26% $391.1M Benchmark Subject
VRRM
Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)
D 46/100 3.7x — 15.1% -4.29% $425.6M /vrrm-vs-spce →
GMRS
GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)
D- 43/100 — — — -0.71% $604.5M /gmrs-vs-spce →
VTOL
Bristow Group Inc.
C- 61/100 9.7x — 8.9% -1.83% $1.24B /vtol-vs-spce →
FLYX
flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)
E 26/100 — 15.0% -35.0% -10.43% $121.6M /flyx-vs-spce →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001706946 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.5M (-78.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.0M , and -77.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$278.9K, operating cash flow of -$240.1M, and free cash flow of -$438.2M (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPCE closed FY2025 with $803.2M in total assets against $276.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.5M -$278.9K -$240.1M -$438.2M $803.2M $276.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.0M -$346.7K -$352.7M -$474.6M $961.2M $420.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $6.8M -$502.3K -$448.2M -$448.2M — —

3. SPCE Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPCE stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $2.47 (-4.26% 1D, market cap $391.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPCE ranks #968 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPCE compare to VRRM and GMRS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SPCE carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRRM (Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $425.6M) and GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $604.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPCE?

Per SPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706946), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. generated $1.5M in revenue (-78.1% YoY), -$278.9K in net income, and -$438.2M in free cash flow against $803.2M in total assets and $276.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPCE trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPCE last traded at $2.47 (-4.26% on volume of 5,088,651 shares), positioning the stock -13.94% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.87) and -15.41% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.92). Across its 52-week range of $2.13 to $8.90, SPCE sits at the 5.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($2.19 to $2.75).

Direct Sub-Reports: SPCE RQD Cockpit SPCE 12M Forecast SPCE Earnings & Move SPCE Dividends & DRIP SPCE Insiders & 13F SPCE Whale Options SPCE Profit Sankey SPCE News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 22/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SPCE — Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 22/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $2.47 (-4.26% 1D, market capitalization $391.1M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (6/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of -30.0%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (5/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of 1.01x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Transportation Services industry. The market capitalization is $0.4B. Revenue figures in the financials section show $1.5M in FY 2025, $7.0M in FY 2024, and $6.8M in FY 2023. — for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue mix.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) reported $1.5M in annual revenue (up from $7.0M in FY2024, -78.1% YoY) and -$278.9K in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($6.8M revenue, -$502.3K net income) through FY2025, SPCE scaled operating cash flow to -$240.1M and free cash flow to -$438.2M, backed by $803.2M in total assets against $276.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 22/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 6/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.13 – $8.90 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector-level relationship in the news wire is the 24/7 Wall St. Item linking SPCE's move to SpaceX's regulatory matter, which is a headline co-movement rather than a documented supply-chain dependency. Investors should watch whether pricing commentary around seat sales translates into reported revenue in future filings.

  • Key Question #1: Can SPCE sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Transportation Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.5M and free cash flow of -$438.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $276.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SPCE's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SPCE Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPCE Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPCE Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.47?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPCE 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SPCE:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeepValue_CFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Institutional Buy-Side 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.07 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reopened seat sales at $750,000 versus the earlier $600,000 suggest pricing power may be improving against a cash-burn base.

Don't sleep on SPCE's setup in Consumer Discretionary. Reopened seat sales at $750,000 versus the earlier $600,000 suggest pricing power may be improving against a cash-burn base.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (22/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Transportation Services. If gross margin (-30.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.09 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $2.58

A 24/100 RQD score with ROIC of -35%, zero FCF yield, and Piotroski 3/9 signals forensic balance-sheet risk.

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on SPCE: A 24/100 RQD score with ROIC of -35%, zero FCF yield, and Piotroski 3/9 signals forensic balance-sheet risk.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Transportation Services triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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