Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 22/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
As of 2026-11-03, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $2.58 (-5.49% 1D, market cap $391.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPCE ranks #970 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SPCE carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRRM (Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $425.6M) and GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $604.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).
Per SPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706946), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. generated $1.5M in revenue (-78.1% YoY), -$278.9K in net income, and -$438.2M in free cash flow against $803.2M in total assets and $276.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 0% Gross Margin
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
While SPCE currently carries a cautious 22/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.87) and Max Pain ($2.71) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.35.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) dropped -5.49% to $2.58, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($2.13 – $8.9). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Yahoo Finance report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
StockInvest.us report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketWatch report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Virgin Galactic Holdings (SPCE) just moved its new Apeiron spaceship to Spaceport America in New Mexico, marking a key step as the business prepares its next-generation fleet for commercial testing. For context, Virgin G
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. -65.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPCE today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPCE. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) ranks #970 by composite RQD confidence (22/100, grade E) and #617 by equity capitalization ($391.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VRRM leads on earnings valuation at 3.7x trailing P/E, while VRRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.1% ROIC and — gross margin. VTOL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with SPCE at 22/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPCE
ACTIVE
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. | E | 22/100 | — | -30.0% | -35.0% | -5.49% | $391.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| VRRM Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A) | D | 46/100 | 3.7x | — | 15.1% | -16.17% | $425.6M | /vrrm-vs-spce → |
| GMRS GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A) | D- | 43/100 | — | — | — | -2.01% | $604.5M | /gmrs-vs-spce → |
| VTOL Bristow Group Inc. | C- | 61/100 | 9.7x | — | 8.9% | -0.14% | $1.24B | /vtol-vs-spce → |
| FLYX flyExclusive Inc. (Class A) | E | 26/100 | — | 15.0% | -35.0% | -6.50% | $121.6M | /flyx-vs-spce → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) reported GAAP revenue of $1.5M (-78.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.0M , and -77.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$278.9K, operating cash flow of -$240.1M, and free cash flow of -$438.2M (+7.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPCE closed FY2025 with $803.2M in total assets against $276.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.5M | -$278.9K | -$240.1M | -$438.2M | $803.2M | $276.4M |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $7.0M | -$346.7K | -$352.7M | -$474.6M | $961.2M | $420.1M |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $6.8M | -$502.3K | -$448.2M | -$448.2M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-03, Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (NYSE: SPCE) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 22/100 at a spot price of $2.58 (-5.49% 1D, market cap $391.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, SPCE ranks #970 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), SPCE carries a Roarable E (22/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of -30.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, VRRM (Verra Mobility Corporation (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 3.7x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $425.6M) and GMRS (GMR Solutions Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $604.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VRRM leads on earnings multiple (3.7x) while VRRM leads on capital efficiency (15.1% ROIC).
Per SPCE's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001706946), Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. generated $1.5M in revenue (-78.1% YoY), -$278.9K in net income, and -$438.2M in free cash flow against $803.2M in total assets and $276.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
SPCE last traded at $2.58 (-5.49% on volume of 5,140,225 shares), positioning the stock -10.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.87) and -11.64% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.92). Across its 52-week range of $2.13 to $8.90, SPCE sits at the 6.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.5% ($2.28 to $2.88).
Why SPCE Stock dropped -5.49% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, SPCE scores 24 out of 100 with a letter grade of E, labeled "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are scored as follows:
For a prospective investor evaluating the stock today, the pillar profile describes a company with negative returns on capital, no free cash flow yield, weak institutional and insider support, and a leveraged balance sheet. The primary upside driver implied by the data is a reversal in cash burn and pricing power, which the news wire frames as an open question rather than an established fact. Valuation tradeoffs are difficult to assess because P/E, forward P/E, EV/EBITDA, and EPS are not available in source data. The stock's 52-week range of $2.13 - $8.9 against a current price of $2.73 shows substantial volatility, which is consistent with the rating's forensic risk label.
Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Transportation Services industry. Per the company profile, the market capitalization is $0.4B. Revenue figures in the financials section show $1.5M in FY 2025, $7.0M in FY 2024, and $6.8M in FY 2023. Not available in source data for detailed product lines, customer segments, or revenue mix.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $1.5M | $-285.3M | $-0.3M | N/A | $-438.2M | $144.7M | $276.4M |
| FY 2024 | $7.0M | $-376.6M | $-0.3M | N/A | $-474.6M | $178.6M | $420.1M |
| FY 2023 | $6.8M | $-531.5M | $-0.5M | N/A | $-448.2M | N/A | N/A |
Per the SEC financials, operating losses are large relative to revenue across all three periods, and free cash flow is negative in each. Per the market data, gross margin is -30%, operating margin is -60%, and net margin is -18.1%, with ROIC at -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 3/9, and the Debt/Equity ratio is 1.01, which together describe a balance sheet with forensic-risk characteristics. Cash declined from $178.6M in FY 2024 to $144.7M in FY 2025, while reported debt fell from $420.1M to $276.4M.
The news wire contains six items, all tagged to SPCE. Yahoo Finance reports Virgin Galactic reopened ticket sales at $750,000 a seat in 2026, up from the $600,000 charged for 700 previously sold seats, and frames the question of whether pricing power is catching up to cash burn. Seeking Alpha's headline describes the company as "A Narrow Path To Survival." The Motley Fool and StockInvest.us items are general buying and forecast guides. 24/7 Wall St. carries a RED light and RISK WATCH label, reporting that SpaceX dropped 4% on an agreement to testify in a New York City AI safety probe while Virgin Galactic Holdings slipped. MarketWatch notes the stock underperformed competitors on Wednesday. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, there are no proprietary signals and no supply-chain links recorded for SPCE.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, the supply chain is recorded as NONE, with no butterfly links and no proprietary signals. Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore not available in source data. The only sector-level relationship in the news wire is the 24/7 Wall St. item linking SPCE's move to SpaceX's regulatory matter, which is a headline co-movement rather than a documented supply-chain dependency. Investors should watch whether pricing commentary around seat sales translates into reported revenue in future filings.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Seeking Alpha report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
StockInvest.us report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
24/7 Wall St. report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
MarketWatch report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Stock Titan report covering Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. (SPCE) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Welcome to the SPCE (Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 24/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Transportation Services. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on SPCE, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with -30.0% gross margins. Unless Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on SPCE, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Transportation Services and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $2.73 (52-wk range $2.13 - $8.90), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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