How profitable is SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), SPSC converted $751.5M of revenue into a 69.2% gross margin, 15.7% operating margin, and $152.3M in free cash flow (20.3% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Technology / SPSC / financials

VIA (50) CLBT (69) PRCH (66) ALRM (73) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$85.08 +2.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.30

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.94B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPSC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $85.08 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $2.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, SPSC ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPSC compare to VIA and CLBT in the Technology sector?

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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SPSC carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.1x, gross margin of 69.2%, and ROIC of 11.4%. By comparison, VIA (Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.6%, cap $2.97B) and CLBT (Cellebrite DI Ltd.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 39.4x, ROIC 14.6%, cap $3.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALRM leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while ALRM leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPSC?

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Per SPSC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001092699), SPS Commerce Inc. generated $751.5M in revenue (+17.8% YoY), $93.3M in net income, and $152.3M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (69.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.30 (+0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 20.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPSC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY SPSC SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.13 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.3% FCF Margin ($152.3M FCF) & 69.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.4) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$83.76+5.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$87.99-2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$86.24-1.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$85.08+2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPSC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, SPSC faces multiple-compression risk if 33.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 66.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($83.51) or 200D SMA ($68.02) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($89.29) toward Bear Floor ($69.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPSC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “SPSC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How SPSC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$152.3M (20.3% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $536.9M

FY24

Rev $637.8M

FY25

Rev $751.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$751.5M	69.2%	15.7%	$93.3M	$152.3M	11.4%
FY 2024	$637.8M	67%	13.9%	$77.1M	$137.4M	11.4%
FY 2023	$536.9M	69.2%	14.4%	$65.8M	$132.3M	11.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPSC)

✓Walkthrough of SPSC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

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SPSC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.34%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $85.78H $85.78L $82.99C $85.08VOL 659.5K

RES: $105.8SUP: $81.51SMA50: $83.51SMA200: $68.02

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPSC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPSC Butterfly Map → + Track SPSC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

25.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPSC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPSC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPSC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPSC)

Technology Rank #92 of 715 ⚔️ VIA vs SPSC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SPSC vs. VIA, CLBT, PRCH, ALRM)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #256 by equity capitalization ($2.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALRM leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while ALRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 64.6% ROIC and 66.1% gross margin. ALRM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with SPSC at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
SPSC ACTIVE SPS Commerce Inc.	C+	69/100	33.1x	69.2%	11.4%	+2.52%	$2.94B	Benchmark Subject
VIA Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	39.6%	-23.6%	+0.03%	$2.97B	/via-vs-spsc →
CLBT Cellebrite DI Ltd.	C+	69/100	39.4x	84.2%	14.6%	-0.16%	$3.05B	/clbt-vs-spsc →
PRCH Porch Group Inc.	C+	66/100	—	81.2%	9.1%	-1.85%	$2.73B	/prch-vs-spsc →
ALRM Alarm.com Holdings Inc.	B	73/100	24.8x	66.1%	64.6%	+1.80%	$3.18B	/alrm-vs-spsc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001092699 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) reported GAAP revenue of $751.5M (+17.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $637.8M , and +40.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $93.3M, operating cash flow of $178.8M, and free cash flow of $152.3M (+10.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPSC closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$751.5M	$93.3M	$178.8M	$152.3M	$1.17B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$637.8M	$77.1M	$157.4M	$137.4M	$1.03B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$536.9M	$65.8M	$132.3M	$132.3M	—	—

3. SPSC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPSC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does SPSC compare to VIA and CLBT in the Technology sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPSC?

Where is SPSC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPSC last traded at $85.08 (+2.52% on volume of 789,803 shares), positioning the stock +1.88% above its 50-day simple moving average ($83.51) and +25.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.02). Across its 52-week range of $49.04 to $96.54, SPSC sits at the 75.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($78.87 to $91.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: SPSC RQD Cockpit SPSC 12M Forecast SPSC Earnings & Move SPSC Dividends & DRIP SPSC Insiders & 13F SPSC Whale Options SPSC Profit Sankey SPSC News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SPSC — SPS Commerce Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $85.08 (+2.52% 1D, market capitalization $2.94B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.4%, gross margin of 69.2%, operating margin of 15.7%, and free cash flow yield of 4.93%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 11.13, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) reported $751.5M in annual revenue (up from $637.8M in FY2024, +17.8% YoY) and $93.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($536.9M revenue, $65.8M net income) through FY2025, SPSC scaled operating cash flow to $178.8M and free cash flow to $152.3M, backed by $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (69.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $49.04 – $96.54 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 33.1x trailing P/E and 20.9x EV/EBITDA against 15.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream dependencies, downstream customers, and sector correlations beyond the stated sector and industry are — The beta of 1.0 per the market data indicates the stock's sensitivity to the overall market, but any second-order bottlenecks would require supply-chain data that is absent from this dossier.

Key Question #1: Can SPSC sustain or expand its 15.7% operating margin and 11.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $751.5M and free cash flow of $152.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is SPSC's 27.8x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SPSC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPSC Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock May Be 30% Undervalued On Cash Flow

Yahoo Finance report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟢 CATALYST Investing.com • 1d ago

Stifel raises SPS Commerce stock price target to $85 on business reset

Investing.com report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

SPS Commerce Announces Date of Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results

Yahoo Finance report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

What SPS Commerce (SPSC) Said on Its Q3 Earnings Call

TradingView report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE The Globe and Mail • 2d ago

SPS Commerce (SPSC) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

The Globe and Mail report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE GuruFocus • 2d ago

SPS Commerce (SPSC) Reports Strong Q3 2026 Revenue, Projects Sol

GuruFocus report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔴 RISK WATCH Simply Wall St • 2d ago

SPS Commerce (SPSC) Stock Price Falls As Q3 Earnings Lift Margins

Simply Wall St report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE www.marketscreener.com • 2d ago

(SPSC) SPS Commerce, Inc. Expects Q4 Adjusted EPS Range $1.31 - $1.36

www.marketscreener.com report covering SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPSC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $85.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPSC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $107.89 (+30.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet and cash-generation metrics are strong, with an Altman Z-Score of 11.13, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a 4.93% FCF yiel

Here is why I am bullish on SPSC here at $82.99: Balance-sheet and cash-generation metrics are strong, with an Altman Z-Score of 11.13, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a 4.93% FCF yield.. Compare SPSC's 15.7% operating margin and 11.4% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $78.84 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 33.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (69.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $63.90 (-23.0%)

Spot @ $82.99

The stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 33.1 with reported cash falling from $241.0M to $151.4M, and no analyst or holder data is available

I respect the product at SPS Commerce Inc., but the stock at $82.99 is a different story. The stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 33.1 with reported cash falling from $241.0M to $151.4M, and no analyst or holder data is available to corroborate conviction.. FCF yield is 4.93% and RQD sits at 69/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?