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Stock Ratings / Technology / SPSC / news
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Why SPSC Stock surged +2.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$85.08 +2.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.30

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 69/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $2.94B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPSC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $85.08 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $2.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, SPSC ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPSC compare to VIA and CLBT in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SPSC carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.1x, gross margin of 69.2%, and ROIC of 11.4%. By comparison, VIA (Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.6%, cap $2.97B) and CLBT (Cellebrite DI Ltd.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 39.4x, ROIC 14.6%, cap $3.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALRM leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while ALRM leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPSC?
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Per SPSC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001092699), SPS Commerce Inc. generated $751.5M in revenue (+17.8% YoY), $93.3M in net income, and $152.3M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (69.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $85.30 (+0.26%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 20.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 69/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+2.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 57.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
025507510069
2-of-3 Quant Analysts Bullish
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C+ · Rk B-
Cash (15)Whales (12)SEC (16)Macro (12)CEO (14)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.9% Base Target
$105 Bull$89 Base$70 Bear
📬 FREE SPSC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPSC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (69/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPSC SCORES 69/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (23% of score)

Altman Z-Score 11.13 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.3% FCF Margin ($152.3M FCF) & 69.2% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (45.4) create a -8 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
61
Grade C$83.76+5.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
64
Grade C+$87.99-2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
66
Grade B-$86.24-1.3% Next Q
Current
69
Grade C+$85.08+2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (61) → C+ (69)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the SPSC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 69/100 (C+) score, SPSC faces multiple-compression risk if 33.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.80% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 66.7% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($83.51) or 200D SMA ($68.02) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($89.29) toward Bear Floor ($69.65).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPSC• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPSC Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
YES 69%NO 31%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why SPSC Stock surged +2.52% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) surged +2.52% to $85.08, trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($49.04 – $96.54). Solid 69.2% gross margin (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 33x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 76% of its 52-week range ($49.04 – $96.54) with RSI-14 at 45.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.3% around $85.08 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 69.2% gross margin and $152.3M annual free cash flow.
Live SPSC Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (SPSC Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
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SPSC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +45.34%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $85.78H $85.78L $82.99C $85.08VOL 659.5K
RES: $105.8SUP: $81.51SMA50: $83.51SMA200: $68.02
$95.88$83.19$70.49$57.80$45.10RES $105.8SUP $81.51$85.082026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPSC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 SPSC Butterfly Map → + Track SPSC →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
25.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +17.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPSC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPSC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPSC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPSC)

Technology Rank #92 of 715 ⚔️ VIA vs SPSC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (SPSC vs. VIA, CLBT, PRCH, ALRM)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) ranks #92 by composite RQD confidence (69/100, grade C+) and #256 by equity capitalization ($2.94B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ALRM leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while ALRM leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 64.6% ROIC and 66.1% gross margin. ALRM currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with SPSC at 69/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SPSC ACTIVE
SPS Commerce Inc.
C+ 69/100 33.1x 69.2% 11.4% +2.52% $2.94B Benchmark Subject
VIA
Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)
D 50/100 — 39.6% -23.6% +0.03% $2.97B /via-vs-spsc →
CLBT
Cellebrite DI Ltd.
C+ 69/100 39.4x 84.2% 14.6% -0.16% $3.05B /clbt-vs-spsc →
PRCH
Porch Group Inc.
C+ 66/100 — 81.2% 9.1% -1.85% $2.73B /prch-vs-spsc →
ALRM
Alarm.com Holdings Inc.
B 73/100 24.8x 66.1% 64.6% +1.80% $3.18B /alrm-vs-spsc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001092699 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) reported GAAP revenue of $751.5M (+17.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $637.8M , and +40.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $93.3M, operating cash flow of $178.8M, and free cash flow of $152.3M (+10.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPSC closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 11.13, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $751.5M $93.3M $178.8M $152.3M $1.17B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $637.8M $77.1M $157.4M $137.4M $1.03B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $536.9M $65.8M $132.3M $132.3M — —

3. SPSC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPSC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, SPS Commerce Inc. (NASDAQ: SPSC) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 69/100 at a spot price of $85.08 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $2.94B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 14/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, SPSC ranks #92 in composite RQD confidence.

How does SPSC compare to VIA and CLBT in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), SPSC carries a Roarable C+ (69/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 33.1x, gross margin of 69.2%, and ROIC of 11.4%. By comparison, VIA (Via Transportation Inc. (Class A)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -23.6%, cap $2.97B) and CLBT (Cellebrite DI Ltd.) posts a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 39.4x, ROIC 14.6%, cap $3.05B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ALRM leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while ALRM leads on capital efficiency (64.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPSC?

Per SPSC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001092699), SPS Commerce Inc. generated $751.5M in revenue (+17.8% YoY), $93.3M in net income, and $152.3M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (69.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPSC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPSC last traded at $85.08 (+2.52% on volume of 789,803 shares), positioning the stock +1.88% above its 50-day simple moving average ($83.51) and +25.08% above its 200-day simple moving average ($68.02). Across its 52-week range of $49.04 to $96.54, SPSC sits at the 75.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($78.87 to $91.29).

Direct Sub-Reports: SPSC RQD Cockpit SPSC 12M Forecast SPSC Earnings & Move SPSC Dividends & DRIP SPSC Insiders & 13F SPSC Whale Options SPSC Profit Sankey SPSC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 69/100 (C+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SPSC — SPS Commerce Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 69/100, corresponding to a C+ letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $85.08 (+2.52% 1D, market capitalization $2.94B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (15/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 11.4%, gross margin of 69.2%, operating margin of 15.7%, and free cash flow yield of 4.93%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (12/20) + Insider Conviction (14/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (16/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 11.13, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified under the Technology sector and the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry..1B.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) reported $751.5M in annual revenue (up from $637.8M in FY2024, +17.8% YoY) and $93.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($536.9M revenue, $65.8M net income) through FY2025, SPSC scaled operating cash flow to $178.8M and free cash flow to $152.3M, backed by $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C+ • RQD 69/100): Strong cash generator (69.2% gross margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 15/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 12/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $49.04 – $96.54 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 33.1x trailing P/E and 20.9x EV/EBITDA against 15.7% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream dependencies, downstream customers, and sector correlations beyond the stated sector and industry are — The beta of 1.0 per the market data indicates the stock's sensitivity to the overall market, but any second-order bottlenecks would require supply-chain data that is absent from this dossier.

  • Key Question #1: Can SPSC sustain or expand its 15.7% operating margin and 11.4% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $751.5M and free cash flow of $152.3M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SPSC's 27.8x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SPSC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for SPS Commerce Inc. (SPSC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPSC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPSC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $85.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPSC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SPSC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
TA TapeReader_Pro RQD DEBATE OPENER • Price Action & Volume Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $107.89 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance-sheet and cash-generation metrics are strong, with an Altman Z-Score of 11.13, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a 4.93% FCF yiel

Here is why I am bullish on SPSC here at $82.99: Balance-sheet and cash-generation metrics are strong, with an Altman Z-Score of 11.13, a Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and a 4.93% FCF yield.. Compare SPSC's 15.7% operating margin and 11.4% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $78.84 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on 33.1x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (69.2%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $63.90 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $82.99

The stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 33.1 with reported cash falling from $241.0M to $151.4M, and no analyst or holder data is available

I respect the product at SPS Commerce Inc., but the stock at $82.99 is a different story. The stock trades at a P/E (TTM) of 33.1 with reported cash falling from $241.0M to $151.4M, and no analyst or holder data is available to corroborate conviction.. FCF yield is 4.93% and RQD sits at 69/100 (C+) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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