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Why SPWH Stock surged +2.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$1.09 +2.83% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.09

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $41.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is SPWH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SPWH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $1.09 (+2.83% 1D, market cap $41.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does SPWH compare to WSHP and PEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPWH carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.9%, and ROIC of -12.8%. By comparison, WSHP (WeShop Holdings Limited (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $56.7M) and PEW (GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $57.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPWH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SPWH leads on capital efficiency (-12.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPWH?
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Per SPWH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001132105), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. generated $1.21B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$50.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $762.6M in total assets and $44.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.09 (+0.32%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (4)SEC (8)Macro (10)CEO (9)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.3% Base Target
$3 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE SPWH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for SPWH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY SPWH SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 4% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+9/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 45% Net Buy • Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$1.11-3.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$1.07+0.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$1.08+0.9% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$1.09-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a SPWH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While SPWH currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.14) and Max Pain ($1.14) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.69.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $SPWH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “SPWH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 30, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why SPWH Stock surged +2.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) surged +2.83% to $1.09, trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($1.03 – $2.56). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-13% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 4% of its 52-week range ($1.03 – $2.56) with RSI-14 at 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.6% around $1.09 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Primary SEC / Cross-Feed Trigger: SPWH Exhibits 2.69x True Net Liquidity Elasticity as Fed-TGA-RRP Prints $5,746B
Live SPWH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREFinancialContent • 1d ago
3 Stocks Under $10 Walking a Fine Line

FinancialContent report covering Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring SPWH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of SPWH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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SPWH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.85%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $1.07H $1.09L $1.06C $1.09VOL 95.0K
RES: $1.10SUP: $1.02SMA50: $1.14SMA200: $1.27
$2.16$1.86$1.55$1.24$0.93RES $1.10SUP $1.02$1.092026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

SPWH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on SPWH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for SPWH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for SPWH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (SPWH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #741 of 1009 ⚔️ WSHP vs SPWH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (SPWH vs. WSHP, PEW, NAAS, BARK)

Industry: Other Specialty Stores (42 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) ranks #741 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #828 by equity capitalization ($41.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPWH leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while SPWH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -12.8% ROIC and 30.9% gross margin. WSHP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with SPWH at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
SPWH ACTIVE
Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc.
D- 39/100 — 30.9% -12.8% +2.83% $41.5M Benchmark Subject
WSHP
WeShop Holdings Limited (Class A)
D 46/100 — — — -0.85% $56.7M /wshp-vs-spwh →
PEW
GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.
E 26/100 — 11.7% -35.0% -1.03% $57.3M /pew-vs-spwh →
NAAS
NaaS Technology Inc.
D 46/100 — — — +3.83% $57.7M /naas-vs-spwh →
BARK
BARK Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 — 61.3% -35.0% +3.63% $72.3M /bark-vs-spwh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-01-31 • CIK 0001132105 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) reported GAAP revenue of $1.21B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.20B , and -6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$50.1M, operating cash flow of $31.3M, and free cash flow of $8.9M (-54.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, SPWH closed FY2025 with $762.6M in total assets against $44.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.79, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2026-01-31 $1.21B -$50.1M $31.3M $8.9M $762.6M $44.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2025-02-01 $1.20B -$33.1M $34.1M $19.6M $852.1M $24.1M
FY2023 (FY) 2024-02-03 $1.29B -$29.0M $52.3M $52.3M — —

3. SPWH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is SPWH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: SPWH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $1.09 (+2.83% 1D, market cap $41.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 9/20. Active quantitative signal LIQUIDITY_TAILWIND (BULLISH, conviction undefined/100) notes: undefined.

How does SPWH compare to WSHP and PEW in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Other Specialty Stores), SPWH carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 30.9%, and ROIC of -12.8%. By comparison, WSHP (WeShop Holdings Limited (Class A)) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $56.7M) and PEW (GrabAGun Digital Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $57.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPWH leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while SPWH leads on capital efficiency (-12.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for SPWH?

Per SPWH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-01-31, CIK 0001132105), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. generated $1.21B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$50.1M in net income, and $8.9M in free cash flow against $762.6M in total assets and $44.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is SPWH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

SPWH last traded at $1.09 (+2.83% on volume of 227,314 shares), positioning the stock -4.39% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.14) and -14.17% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.27). Across its 52-week range of $1.03 to $2.56, SPWH sits at the 3.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.6% ($1.01 to $1.17).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

SPWH — Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2026-01-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $1.09 (+2.83% 1D, market capitalization $41.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -12.8%, gross margin of 30.9%, operating margin of -3.1%, and free cash flow yield of 21.21%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (9/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.79, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.23x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Other Specialty Stores industry. Reported revenue for FY 2025 was $1.21B . Gross margin is 30.9% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2026-01-31), Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) reported $1.21B in annual revenue (up from $1.20B in FY2024, +1.0% YoY) and -$50.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.29B revenue, -$29.0M net income) through FY2025, SPWH scaled operating cash flow to $31.3M and free cash flow to $8.9M, backed by $762.6M in total assets against $44.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 21.21% and institutional whale pillar of 4/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.03 – $2.56 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -3.1% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies cannot be mapped from the source data. The only sector-level context is the Consumer Discretionary classification and the Other Specialty Stores industry. The liquidity elasticity signal implies that SPWH's price is highly sensitive to changes in net liquidity conditions, so a shift in that macro backdrop would be a second-order driver even without a defined supply-chain map. Investors should watch whether the liquidity regime holds, since the signal's bullish reading depends on it.

  • Key Question #1: Can SPWH sustain or expand its -3.1% operating margin and -12.8% ROIC against Other Specialty Stores peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.21B and free cash flow of $8.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $44.2M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is SPWH's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

SPWH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Sportsman's Warehouse Holdings Inc. (SPWH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to SPWH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

SPWH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1.09?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON SPWH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on SPWH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.23 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The Butterfly liquidity signal assigns an 89/100 Macro Tailwind Score on a 2.69x Net Liquidity beta, and the 21.21% FCF yield offers a

Picked up a starter position in SPWH in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $1.06. The Butterfly liquidity signal assigns an 89/100 Macro Tailwind Score on a 2.69x Net Liquidity beta, and the 21.21% FCF yield offers a high cash return if durable.. Trading inside a $1.03–$2.56 52-week range with 21.21% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Other Specialty Stores multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 39/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $1.06 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.99.

RE RedlineAuditor RQD DEBATE OPENER • Accounting Quality Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.85 (-19.8%)
Spot @ $1.06

A -12.8% ROIC, -3.1% operating margin, Altman Z of 1.79, and cash of $1.7M against $44.2M debt leave little balance-sheet cushion.

Careful chasing SPWH at $1.06. A -12.8% ROIC, -3.1% operating margin, Altman Z of 1.79, and cash of $1.7M against $44.2M debt leave little balance-sheet cushion.. Gross margin is 30.9%, but operating margin is -3.1%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $0.85 on multiple compression.

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