ROARABLE
FREE $100K
My Trading Account →
▾
Trading Profile Active
Active Trader
Verified Trader
⚡ My $100K Trading Account → ★ My Saved Watchlist →
🟢 My $100K Account → Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Financials / STAG / forecast
FR (58) ARE (46) MAC (59) VNO (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$37.49 +1.71% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.53

Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $7.23B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on STAG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is STAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Stag Industrial Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $37.49 (+1.71% 1D, market cap $7.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, STAG ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does STAG compare to FR and ARE in the Financials sector?
▼

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), STAG carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.2%. By comparison, FR (First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 29.5x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $7.27B) and ARE (Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $7.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VNO leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while VNO leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STAG?
▼

Per STAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001479094), Stag Industrial Inc. generated $845.2M in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $273.5M in net income, and $425.4M in free cash flow against $7.21B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.53 (+0.12%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 50.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510059
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk C-
Cash (12)Whales (8)SEC (15)Macro (9)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.5% Base Target
$45 Bull$38 Base$29 Bear
📬 FREE STAG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STAG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY STAG SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 9/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
51
Grade C-$35.69+2.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
54
Grade C-$36.51+2.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
56
Grade C$37.27+0.6% Next Q
Current
59
Grade C-$37.49+0.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STAG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, STAG faces multiple-compression risk if 26.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($36.75) or 200D SMA ($37.88) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($37.66) toward Bear Floor ($29.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STAG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “STAG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your STAG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $37.49: 266.7 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $29.37
$7,834
$-2,166 (-21.7%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $37.66
$10,045
+$45 (+0.5%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $44.74
$11,934
+$1,934 (+19.3%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$3974%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$4269%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$3458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (STAG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
STAG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.47%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-04O $36.86H $37.49L $36.86C $37.49VOL 1.91M
RES: $36.16SUP: $34.51SMA50: $36.75SMA200: $37.88
$43.13$40.97$38.80$36.63$34.47RES $36.16SUP $34.51$37.492026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STAG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STAG Butterfly Map → + Track STAG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
19.9%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STAG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STAG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STAG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STAG)

Financials Rank #408 of 1097 ⚔️ FR vs STAG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (STAG vs. FR, ARE, MAC, VNO)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) ranks #408 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #226 by equity capitalization ($7.23B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VNO leads on earnings valuation at 7.0x trailing P/E, while VNO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.3% ROIC and — gross margin. VNO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with STAG at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
STAG ACTIVE
Stag Industrial Inc.
C- 59/100 26.3x — 5.2% +1.71% $7.23B Benchmark Subject
FR
First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.
D+ 58/100 29.5x — 6.2% +0.72% $7.27B /fr-vs-stag →
ARE
Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.
D 46/100 — — -6.5% +5.90% $7.41B /are-vs-stag →
MAC
Macerich Company
C- 59/100 — — -4.1% +1.93% $7.04B /mac-vs-stag →
VNO
Vornado Realty Trust
B- 70/100 7.0x — 10.3% +1.22% $6.53B /vno-vs-stag →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001479094 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) reported GAAP revenue of $845.2M (+10.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $767.4M , and +19.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $273.5M, operating cash flow of $463.4M, and free cash flow of $425.4M (-0.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, STAG closed FY2025 with $7.21B in total assets against $1.59B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 9/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $845.2M $273.5M $463.4M $425.4M $7.21B $1.59B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $767.4M $189.2M $460.3M $425.8M $6.83B $1.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $707.8M $192.8M $391.1M $359.2M $3.95B $924.9M

3. STAG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STAG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Stag Industrial Inc. (NYSE: STAG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $37.49 (+1.71% 1D, market cap $7.23B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, STAG ranks #408 in composite RQD confidence.

How does STAG compare to FR and ARE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), STAG carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 26.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.2%. By comparison, FR (First Industrial Realty Trust Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 29.5x, ROIC 6.2%, cap $7.27B) and ARE (Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $7.41B). Among the 5-stock peer group, VNO leads on earnings multiple (7.0x) while VNO leads on capital efficiency (10.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STAG?

Per STAG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001479094), Stag Industrial Inc. generated $845.2M in revenue (+10.1% YoY), $273.5M in net income, and $425.4M in free cash flow against $7.21B in total assets and $1.59B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is STAG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STAG last traded at $37.49 (+1.71% on volume of 1,905,854 shares), positioning the stock +2.01% above its 50-day simple moving average ($36.75) and -1.03% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.88). Across its 52-week range of $35.14 to $42.61, STAG sits at the 31.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.0% ($35.99 to $38.99).

Direct Sub-Reports: STAG RQD Cockpit STAG 12M Forecast STAG Earnings & Move STAG Dividends & DRIP STAG Insiders & 13F STAG Whale Options STAG Profit Sankey STAG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 59/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

STAG — Stag Industrial Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 59/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $37.49 (+1.71% 1D, market capitalization $7.23B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.2%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 39.5%, and free cash flow yield of 5.92%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 0.91x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 9/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Stag Industrial Inc. Is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Financials sector, Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, and profile. The profile identifies the company as a NYSE-listed issuer with a market capitalization of $7.2B. Revenue and operating results are reported in the Financial Trend section below.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) reported $845.2M in annual revenue (up from $767.4M in FY2024, +10.1% YoY) and $273.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($707.8M revenue, $192.8M net income) through FY2025, STAG scaled operating cash flow to $463.4M and free cash flow to $425.4M, backed by $7.21B in total assets against $1.59B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 59/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $35.14 – $42.61 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 26.3x trailing P/E and 23.7x EV/EBITDA against 39.5% operating margins and a 0.91x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context provided is the Financials / Real Estate Investment Trusts classification, and the news headlines reference e-commerce as a tailwind per the Seeking Alpha item. Beyond that, investors should note that no quantified ripple effects are supplied.

  • Key Question #1: Can STAG sustain or expand its 39.5% operating margin and 5.2% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $845.2M and free cash flow of $425.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $1.59B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is STAG's 24.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.91x)?

STAG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Stag Industrial Inc. (STAG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to STAG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

STAG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $37.49?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON STAG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on STAG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MI MidwestValue RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Long-Only 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $43.86 (+19.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Sound forensic balance sheet (Piotroski F 9/9, Altman Z 2.5) and a 26.3x P/E alongside a $250 million buyback and rising revenue and ne

Don't sleep on STAG's setup in Financials. Sound forensic balance sheet (Piotroski F 9/9, Altman Z 2.5) and a 26.3x P/E alongside a $250 million buyback and rising revenue and net income from FY 2023 to FY 2025.. Beta of 0.91 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (59/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — STAG's 15/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $31.33 (-15.0%)
Spot @ $36.86

A 5.2% ROIC and a macro regime fit score of 9/20 leave the valuation (P/E 26.3, EV/EBITDA 23.7) poorly supported by returns, while debt

Sitting on the sidelines or leaning short STAG above $36.86. A 5.2% ROIC and a macro regime fit score of 9/20 leave the valuation (P/E 26.3, EV/EBITDA 23.7) poorly supported by returns, while debt rose from $924.9M to $1.59B and cash fell to $14.9M.. Until Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20) and FCF yield (5.92%) inflect higher, upside is capped near $42.61.

LIVE TAPE