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Stock Ratings / Financials / STWD / earnings
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STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.6% Move

$12.53 -0.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.49

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $4.67B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on STWD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is STWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (NYSE: STWD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $12.53 (-0.63% 1D, market cap $4.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, STWD ranks #519 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does STWD compare to HHH and EPR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), STWD carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.3%. By comparison, HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 36.4x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $4.65B) and EPR (EPR Properties) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $4.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STWD leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while EPR leads on capital efficiency (9.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STWD?
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Per STWD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001465128), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. generated $1.84B in revenue (-5.3% YoY), $411.5M in net income, and $894.9M in free cash flow against $63.18B in total assets and $25.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.49 (-0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 48.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510055
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (4)SEC (15)Macro (8)CEO (15)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
$20 Bull$12 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE STWD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STWD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY STWD SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$12.61-0.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
60
Grade C$12.58-1.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
58
Grade C$12.40+1% Next Q
Current
55
Grade D+$12.53-0.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STWD Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, STWD faces multiple-compression risk if 11.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.81) or 200D SMA ($16.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.36) toward Bear Floor ($9.64).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STWD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “STWD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 55%NO 45%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.6% Swing Band

±$0.70 Expected Swing
$11.83 (-5.6%)Spot $12.53$13.23 (+5.6%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

STWD Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 55/100

Trailing EPS: $1.11 • YoY Revenue Growth: -5.3%

Model Bullish Setup (55/100)Model Risk Weight (45/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.84B$411.5M$894.9M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.95B$359.9M$559.0M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$2.05B$339.2M$436.4M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STWD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of STWD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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STWD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.38%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $12.20H $12.61L $12.20C $12.53VOL 5.55M
RES: $16.54SUP: $11.07SMA50: $13.81SMA200: $16.42
$19.09$17.13$15.16$13.20$11.23RES $16.54SUP $11.07$12.532026-05-052026-06-222026-08-062026-09-222026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

STWD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 STWD Butterfly Map → + Track STWD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -5.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STWD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STWD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STWD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STWD)

Financials Rank #519 of 1097 ⚔️ HHH vs STWD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (STWD vs. HHH, EPR, CUZ, APLE)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) ranks #519 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #285 by equity capitalization ($4.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STWD leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while EPR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.0% ROIC and — gross margin. EPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with STWD at 55/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
STWD ACTIVE
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc.
D+ 55/100 11.2x — 1.3% -0.63% $4.67B Benchmark Subject
HHH
Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.
C+ 69/100 36.4x — 5.1% -2.07% $4.65B /hhh-vs-stwd →
EPR
EPR Properties
B 72/100 16.3x — 9.0% -0.15% $4.57B /epr-vs-stwd →
CUZ
Cousins Properties Incorporated
C+ 69/100 118.2x — 8.3% -1.88% $4.91B /cuz-vs-stwd →
APLE
Apple Hospitality REIT Inc.
C+ 68/100 25.3x — 6.5% -0.11% $4.41B /aple-vs-stwd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001465128 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.84B (-5.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.95B , and -10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $411.5M, operating cash flow of $977.9M, and free cash flow of $894.9M (+60.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, STWD closed FY2025 with $63.18B in total assets against $25.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.84B $411.5M $977.9M $894.9M $63.18B $25.06B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.95B $359.9M $646.6M $559.0M $62.56B $24.91B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $2.05B $339.2M $528.6M $436.4M $2.52B $590.7M

3. STWD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is STWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (NYSE: STWD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $12.53 (-0.63% 1D, market cap $4.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, STWD ranks #519 in composite RQD confidence.

How does STWD compare to HHH and EPR in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), STWD carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.3%. By comparison, HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 36.4x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $4.65B) and EPR (EPR Properties) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $4.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STWD leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while EPR leads on capital efficiency (9.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STWD?

Per STWD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001465128), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. generated $1.84B in revenue (-5.3% YoY), $411.5M in net income, and $894.9M in free cash flow against $63.18B in total assets and $25.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is STWD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

STWD last traded at $12.53 (-0.63% on volume of 7,146,279 shares), positioning the stock -9.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.81) and -23.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.42). Across its 52-week range of $11.84 to $18.66, STWD sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($11.83 to $13.23).

Direct Sub-Reports: STWD RQD Cockpit STWD 12M Forecast STWD Earnings & Move STWD Dividends & DRIP STWD Insiders & 13F STWD Whale Options STWD Profit Sankey STWD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

STWD — STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.53 (-0.63% 1D, market capitalization $4.67B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 27.2%, and free cash flow yield of 19.50%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.16x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.52B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 27.2%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.3% (free cash flow yield of 19.5%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) reported $1.84B in annual revenue (up from $1.95B in FY2024, -5.3% YoY) and $411.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.05B revenue, $339.2M net income) through FY2025, STWD scaled operating cash flow to $977.9M and free cash flow to $894.9M, backed by $63.18B in total assets against $25.06B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.84 – $18.66 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.2x trailing P/E and 48.0x EV/EBITDA against 27.2% operating margins and a 1.16x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), STWD carries a macro regime beta of 1.16 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can STWD sustain or expand its 27.2% operating margin and 1.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.84B and free cash flow of $894.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $25.06B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is STWD's 10.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.16x)?

STWD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to STWD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

STWD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.53?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON STWD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on STWD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $14.15 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Free cash flow rose to $894.9M in FY 2025 against a 19.5% FCF yield, and the forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with an Altman Z-Score

Picked up a starter position in STWD in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $12.20. Free cash flow rose to $894.9M in FY 2025 against a 19.5% FCF yield, and the forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.. Trading inside a $11.84–$18.66 52-week range with 19.5% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.

SectorRotator 🐂 BULL

@MultipleCompression Fair point on 11.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $10.00 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $12.20

The whale 13F flow pillar scores just 4/20 and ROIC is only 1.3%, while beta of 1.16 and a macro-regime fit score of 8/20 leave the sto

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on STWD: The whale 13F flow pillar scores just 4/20 and ROIC is only 1.3%, while beta of 1.16 and a macro-regime fit score of 8/20 leave the stock exposed to sector moves.. At 11.2x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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