MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
ACORE’s Warren de Haan: You Can’t Hedge a Bad LoanACORE CEO Warren de Haan on credit-first lending, reset-basis deals and which private credit entrants get washed out.
Why STWD Stock slipped -0.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.53 -0.63% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.49
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 55/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $4.67B
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Is STWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-03, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (NYSE: STWD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $12.53 (-0.63% 1D, market cap $4.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, STWD ranks #519 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does STWD compare to HHH and EPR in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), STWD carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.3%. By comparison, HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 36.4x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $4.65B) and EPR (EPR Properties) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $4.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STWD leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while EPR leads on capital efficiency (9.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STWD?
▼
Per STWD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001465128), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. generated $1.84B in revenue (-5.3% YoY), $411.5M in net income, and $894.9M in free cash flow against $63.18B in total assets and $25.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.49 (-0.30%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 48.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 55/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for STWD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (55/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY STWD SCORES 55/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+15/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (27% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C+$12.61-0.2% Next Q
63
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$12.58-1.4% Next Q
60
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$12.40+1% Next Q
58
CurrentGrade D+$12.53-0.5% Hist 90D α
55
Trajectory: C+ (63) → D+ (55)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the STWD Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 55/100 (D+) score, STWD faces multiple-compression risk if 11.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($13.81) or 200D SMA ($16.42) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.36) toward Bear Floor ($9.64).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $STWD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “STWD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why STWD Stock slipped -0.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) slipped -0.63% to $12.53, trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($11.84 – $18.66). Stretched risk/reward at 11x P/E (1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 10% of its 52-week range ($11.84 – $18.66) with RSI-14 at 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.6% around $12.53 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $894.9M annual free cash flow.
Live STWD Headlines & Catalysts
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CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 8d ago
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CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 9d ago
REITs Rebound As Earnings DeliverMarkets waver as AI and oil reshape Fed bets, while REIT earnings stay strong.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 14d ago
What To Watch This REIT Earnings SeasonREITs face renewed long-term rate shock this earnings season. Read the full analysis here.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 17d ago
AI Reality Check, Inflation Stress TestU.S. equities stumbled as AI-bubble concerns overwhelmed otherwise resilient fundamentals. Click here to read more on REITs here.
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 17d ago
Starwood Property: Why I Got This Wrong (Rating Downgrade)Starwood Property Trust outlook: higher rates, CRE credit stress, dividend coverage gap and valuation risks.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring STWD)
- ✓Walkthrough of STWD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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STWD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -31.38%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-04O $12.20H $12.61L $12.20C $12.53VOL 5.55M
RES: $16.54SUP: $11.07SMA50: $13.81SMA200: $16.42
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
STWD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
1.1%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -5.3% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on STWD today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for STWD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for STWD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (STWD)
Financials Rank #519 of 1097
⚔️ HHH vs STWD Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (STWD vs. HHH, EPR, CUZ, APLE)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) ranks #519 by composite RQD confidence (55/100, grade D+) and #285 by equity capitalization ($4.67B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, STWD leads on earnings valuation at 11.2x trailing P/E, while EPR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.0% ROIC and — gross margin. EPR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with STWD at 55/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STWD
ACTIVE
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. | D+ | 55/100 | 11.2x | — | 1.3% | -0.63% | $4.67B | Benchmark Subject |
| HHH Howard Hughes Holdings Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 36.4x | — | 5.1% | -2.07% | $4.65B | /hhh-vs-stwd → |
| EPR EPR Properties | B | 72/100 | 16.3x | — | 9.0% | -0.15% | $4.57B | /epr-vs-stwd → |
| CUZ Cousins Properties Incorporated | C+ | 69/100 | 118.2x | — | 8.3% | -1.88% | $4.91B | /cuz-vs-stwd → |
| APLE Apple Hospitality REIT Inc. | C+ | 68/100 | 25.3x | — | 6.5% | -0.11% | $4.41B | /aple-vs-stwd → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001465128 ↗In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) reported GAAP revenue of $1.84B (-5.3% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.95B , and -10.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $411.5M, operating cash flow of $977.9M, and free cash flow of $894.9M (+60.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, STWD closed FY2025 with $63.18B in total assets against $25.06B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.84B | $411.5M | $977.9M | $894.9M | $63.18B | $25.06B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.95B | $359.9M | $646.6M | $559.0M | $62.56B | $24.91B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $2.05B | $339.2M | $528.6M | $436.4M | $2.52B | $590.7M |
3. STWD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs STWD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-03, STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (NYSE: STWD) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 55/100 at a spot price of $12.53 (-0.63% 1D, market cap $4.67B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 4/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 15/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, STWD ranks #519 in composite RQD confidence.
How does STWD compare to HHH and EPR in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), STWD carries a Roarable D+ (55/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 11.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.3%. By comparison, HHH (Howard Hughes Holdings Inc.) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 36.4x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $4.65B) and EPR (EPR Properties) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 16.3x, ROIC 9.0%, cap $4.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, STWD leads on earnings multiple (11.2x) while EPR leads on capital efficiency (9.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for STWD?
Per STWD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001465128), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. generated $1.84B in revenue (-5.3% YoY), $411.5M in net income, and $894.9M in free cash flow against $63.18B in total assets and $25.06B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is STWD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
STWD last traded at $12.53 (-0.63% on volume of 7,146,279 shares), positioning the stock -9.27% below its 50-day simple moving average ($13.81) and -23.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($16.42). Across its 52-week range of $11.84 to $18.66, STWD sits at the 10.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.3 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.6% ($11.83 to $13.23).
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 55/100 (D+)
✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED
STWD — STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31
1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 55/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $12.53 (-0.63% 1D, market capitalization $4.67B).
- Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.3%, gross margin of —, operating margin of 27.2%, and free cash flow yield of 19.50%.
- Whale 13F & Options Flow (4/20) + Insider Conviction (15/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
- Macro Regime Fit (8/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (15/20): Incorporates a 1.16x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.
2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) is a NYSE-listed operating company in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry (Financials sector) with an equity market capitalization of $4.52B. The business operates with a gross margin of 0%, an operating margin of 27.2%, and a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 1.3% (free cash flow yield of 19.5%). Within the Real Estate Investment Trusts peer group, investor evaluation centers on operating leverage, unit margin durability, and capital allocation efficiency across market cycles.
In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) reported $1.84B in annual revenue (up from $1.95B in FY2024, -5.3% YoY) and $411.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($2.05B revenue, $339.2M net income) through FY2025, STWD scaled operating cash flow to $977.9M and free cash flow to $894.9M, backed by $63.18B in total assets against $25.06B in total debt.
3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff
- 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 55/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 4/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $11.84 – $18.66 52-week range.
- 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 11.2x trailing P/E and 48.0x EV/EBITDA against 27.2% operating margins and a 1.16x macro beta.
4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch
Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), STWD carries a macro regime beta of 1.16 and gross margin of —.
- Key Question #1: Can STWD sustain or expand its 27.2% operating margin and 1.3% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
- Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.84B and free cash flow of $894.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $25.06B in total debt?
- Key Question #3: How sensitive is STWD's 10.4x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.16x)?
STWD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST INC. Starwood Property Trust Inc. (STWD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
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ACORE’s Warren de Haan: You Can’t Hedge a Bad Loan ACORE CEO Warren de Haan on credit-first lending, reset-basis deals and which private credit entrants get washed out.
🟡 MARKET WIRE SeekingAlpha • 3d ago
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🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo • 8d ago
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🟢 CATALYST SeekingAlpha • 8d ago
Starwood Property Trust: The 15% Dividend Trap Investors Should Avoid Looking at Starwood Property Trust? Read why investors should be cautious regarding this REIT.
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🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE
3 Active Posts & Replies
STWD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $12.53?
🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON STWD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH
🎯 Target: $14.15 (+16.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate Free cash flow rose to $894.9M in FY 2025 against a 19.5% FCF yield, and the forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with an Altman Z-Score
Picked up a starter position in STWD in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $12.20. Free cash flow rose to $894.9M in FY 2025 against a 19.5% FCF yield, and the forensic balance sheet scores 15/20 with an Altman Z-Score of 2.5 and a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.. Trading inside a $11.84–$18.66 52-week range with 19.5% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.
SectorRotator 🐂 BULL
@MultipleCompression Fair point on 11.2x trailing P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Real Estate Investment Trusts. If gross margin (0.0%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.
MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH
🎯 Target: $10.00 (-18.0%)
Spot @ $12.20 The whale 13F flow pillar scores just 4/20 and ROIC is only 1.3%, while beta of 1.16 and a macro-regime fit score of 8/20 leave the sto
Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on STWD: The whale 13F flow pillar scores just 4/20 and ROIC is only 1.3%, while beta of 1.16 and a macro-regime fit score of 8/20 leave the stock exposed to sector moves.. At 11.2x trailing P/E, even a small guidance miss in Real Estate Investment Trusts triggers a 12-15% air pocket.