ROARABLE
FREE $100K
Today Screener Big Ideas Track Record 💰 $100K Arena 🎲 Predictions 🏛️ Insiders 8 Analysts
Stock Ratings / Industrials / TDG / forecast
FER (56) ESLT (70) RKLB (37) LMT (70) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$1,213.62 +5.83% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1,224.05

Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 60/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $63.39B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TDG Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TDG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Transdigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $1,213.62 (+5.83% 1D, market cap $63.39B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, TDG ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TDG compare to FER and ESLT in the Industrials sector?
▼

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), TDG carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of 60.1%, and ROIC of 63.3%. By comparison, FER (Ferrovial N.V.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $39.78B) and ESLT (Elbit Systems Ltd.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 70.3x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $36.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMT leads on earnings multiple (29.6x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TDG?
▼

Per TDG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001260221), Transdigm Group Incorporated generated $8.83B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $2.07B in net income, and $1.82B in free cash flow against $23.76B in total assets and $14.86B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1,224.06 (+0.86%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 20.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 60/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.5% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-
025507510060
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk D+
Cash (13)Whales (9)SEC (12)Macro (9)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.9% Base Target
$1536 Bull$1225 Base$955 Bear
📬 FREE TDG RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TDG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (60/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TDG SCORES 60/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (28% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.6% FCF Margin ($1.82B FCF) & 60.1% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (52.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$1,109.77+1.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
55
Grade C$1,129.38+0.6% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
57
Grade C$1,136.53+6.8% Next Q
Current
60
Grade C-$1,213.62+0.4% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → C- (60)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the TDG Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 60/100 (C-) score, TDG faces multiple-compression risk if 31.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($1,127.39) or 200D SMA ($1,222.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($1,224.54) toward Bear Floor ($955.14).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TDG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TDG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 60%NO 40%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your TDG Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $1,213.62: 8.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $955.14
$7,870
$-2,130 (-21.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $1,224.54
$10,090
+$90 (+0.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $1,536.18
$12,658
+$2,658 (+26.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$1,27474%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$1,44469%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$1,09058%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (TDG Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
TDG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +5.56%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $1,175.9H $1,213.6L $1,146.8C $1,213.6VOL 395.4K
RES: $1,353.3SUP: $962.8SMA50: $1,127.4SMA200: $1,222.1
$1,382.1$1,297.9$1,213.6$1,129.4$1,045.1RES $1,353.3SUP $962.8$1,213.62026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TDG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TDG Butterfly Map → + Track TDG →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
24.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TDG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TDG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TDG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TDG)

Industrials Rank #112 of 486 ⚔️ FER vs TDG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (TDG vs. FER, ESLT, RKLB, LMT)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 486 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) ranks #112 by composite RQD confidence (60/100, grade C-) and #26 by equity capitalization ($63.39B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LMT leads on earnings valuation at 29.6x trailing P/E, while TDG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.3% ROIC and 60.1% gross margin. ESLT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with TDG at 60/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TDG ACTIVE
Transdigm Group Incorporated
C- 60/100 31.3x 60.1% 63.3% +5.83% $63.39B Benchmark Subject
FER
Ferrovial N.V.
D+ 56/100 32.8x — 9.9% +3.36% $39.78B /fer-vs-tdg →
ESLT
Elbit Systems Ltd.
B- 70/100 70.3x 24.4% 15.1% -4.77% $36.26B /eslt-vs-tdg →
RKLB
Rocket Lab Corporation
D- 37/100 — 34.4% -6.1% -4.86% $34.36B /rklb-vs-tdg →
LMT
Lockheed Martin Corporation
B- 70/100 29.6x 10.2% 26.4% +0.97% $147.14B /lmt-vs-tdg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001260221 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) reported GAAP revenue of $8.83B (+11.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.94B , and +34.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.07B, operating cash flow of $2.04B, and free cash flow of $1.82B (-3.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TDG closed FY2025 with $23.76B in total assets against $14.86B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.76, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-09-30 $8.83B $2.07B $2.04B $1.82B $23.76B $14.86B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-09-30 $7.94B $1.71B $2.04B $1.88B $21.52B $12.49B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-09-30 $6.58B $1.30B $1.38B $1.08B $35.75B $8.37B

3. TDG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TDG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Transdigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 60/100 at a spot price of $1,213.62 (+5.83% 1D, market cap $63.39B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 486 tracked Industrials issuers, TDG ranks #112 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TDG compare to FER and ESLT in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), TDG carries a Roarable C- (60/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of 60.1%, and ROIC of 63.3%. By comparison, FER (Ferrovial N.V.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $39.78B) and ESLT (Elbit Systems Ltd.) posts a B- grade (70/100 RQD, P/E 70.3x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $36.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMT leads on earnings multiple (29.6x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TDG?

Per TDG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001260221), Transdigm Group Incorporated generated $8.83B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $2.07B in net income, and $1.82B in free cash flow against $23.76B in total assets and $14.86B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TDG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TDG last traded at $1,213.62 (+5.83% on volume of 466,983 shares), positioning the stock +7.65% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1,127.39) and -0.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1,222.06). Across its 52-week range of $1,071.25 to $1,463.03, TDG sits at the 36.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($1,148.08 to $1,279.16).

Direct Sub-Reports: TDG RQD Cockpit TDG 12M Forecast TDG Earnings & Move TDG Dividends & DRIP TDG Insiders & 13F TDG Whale Options TDG Profit Sankey TDG News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 60/100 (C-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TDG — Transdigm Group Incorporated: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-09-30

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 60/100, corresponding to a C- letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $1,213.62 (+5.83% 1D, market capitalization $63.39B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 63.3%, gross margin of 60.1%, operating margin of 47.2%, and free cash flow yield of 2.79%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (9/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 0.89x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 1.76, Piotroski F-Score of 8/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.85x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Transdigm Group Incorporated is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry,. The company reported FY 2025 revenue of $8.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-09-30), Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) reported $8.83B in annual revenue (up from $7.94B in FY2024, +11.2% YoY) and $2.07B in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($6.58B revenue, $1.30B net income) through FY2025, TDG scaled operating cash flow to $2.04B and free cash flow to $1.82B, backed by $23.76B in total assets against $14.86B in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C- • RQD 60/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 2.79% and institutional whale pillar of 9/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 9/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1,071.25 – $1,463.03 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 31.3x trailing P/E and 17.5x EV/EBITDA against 47.2% operating margins and a 0.89x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can TDG sustain or expand its 47.2% operating margin and 63.3% ROIC against Military/Government/Technical peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $8.83B and free cash flow of $1.82B, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $14.86B in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TDG's 29.1x forward P/E multiple to Industrials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 0.89x)?

TDG Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TDG Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TDG Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $1,213.62?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TDG 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TDG:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1,433.51 (+25.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar in the Roarable RQD rating, a

Don't sleep on TDG's setup in Industrials. Insider Conviction scores 17 of 20 on SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow, the strongest pillar in the Roarable RQD rating, alongside ROIC of 63.3%.. Beta of 0.89 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (60/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 60/100 quality, though with 0.89 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $1146.81 and keeping dry powder in case we test $1066.53.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $951.85 (-17.0%)
Spot @ $1,146.81

The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 9 of 20 and FCF yield is only 2.79% against a 31.3 trailing P/E, leaving limited valuation cushion.

Fading this rally in TDG at $1146.81. The Macro Regime Fit pillar scores 9 of 20 and FCF yield is only 2.79% against a 31.3 trailing P/E, leaving limited valuation cushion.. With a beta of 0.89 and the stock sitting at $1146.81 (52-wk range $1071.25–$1463.03), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

LIVE TAPE SPY $752.10 -1.80% QQQ $681.09 -3.60% DIA $519.34 -1.08% IWM $279.14 -1.68% NVDA $202.06 -1.26% AAPL $338.32 -1.83% MSFT $507.12 -2.83% TSLA $403.82 +1.00% PLTR $178.34 -3.13% SOFI $16.60 -0.95% IBIT $43.35 -5.42% GLD $361.65 -3.59%