Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
As of 2026-11-02, Transdigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $1,146.81 (-2.47% 1D, market cap $65.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, TDG ranks #102 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), TDG carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of 60.1%, and ROIC of 63.3%. By comparison, FER (Ferrovial N.V.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $40.95B) and ESLT (Elbit Systems Ltd.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 70.3x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $37.55B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMT leads on earnings multiple (29.6x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).
Per TDG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001260221), Transdigm Group Incorporated generated $8.83B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $2.07B in net income, and $1.82B in free cash flow against $23.76B in total assets and $14.86B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.6% FCF Margin ($1.82B FCF) & 60.1% Gross Margin
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (60.4) create a -11 pt regime headwind
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, TDG faces multiple-compression risk if 31.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($1,128.31) or 200D SMA ($1,223.56) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($1,172.61) toward Bear Floor ($914.64).
Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) dropped -2.47% to $1146.81, trading at 19% of its 52-week range ($1071.25 – $1463.03). Solid 60% profit margin (63% return on capital), mixed timing at 31x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) today said it will report fiscal 2026 fourth quarter earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
This article looks at the 5 Best Defense Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. You can see the expanded list of 9 Best Defense Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds here. Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts and ris
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
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Investment management company Vulcan Value Partners recently released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter. The letter can be downloaded here. The portfolio reported a strong quarter, with all strategies except Small C
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TransDigm is likely to report its Q4 earnings soon, and analysts forecast single-digit earnings growth.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +11.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TDG today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TDG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) ranks #102 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #25 by equity capitalization ($65.00B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LMT leads on earnings valuation at 29.6x trailing P/E, while TDG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 63.3% ROIC and 60.1% gross margin. ESLT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with TDG at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TDG
ACTIVE
Transdigm Group Incorporated | C | 63/100 | 31.3x | 60.1% | 63.3% | -2.47% | $65.00B | Benchmark Subject |
| FER Ferrovial N.V. | D+ | 56/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | -2.86% | $40.95B | /fer-vs-tdg → |
| ESLT Elbit Systems Ltd. | B | 74/100 | 70.3x | 24.4% | 15.1% | -3.43% | $37.55B | /eslt-vs-tdg → |
| RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation | D- | 39/100 | — | 34.4% | -6.1% | -7.39% | $37.10B | /rklb-vs-tdg → |
| LMT Lockheed Martin Corporation | B- | 71/100 | 29.6x | 10.2% | 26.4% | -1.03% | $148.67B | /lmt-vs-tdg → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) reported GAAP revenue of $8.83B (+11.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.94B , and +34.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.07B, operating cash flow of $2.04B, and free cash flow of $1.82B (-3.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TDG closed FY2025 with $23.76B in total assets against $14.86B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.76, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $8.83B | $2.07B | $2.04B | $1.82B | $23.76B | $14.86B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $7.94B | $1.71B | $2.04B | $1.88B | $21.52B | $12.49B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $6.58B | $1.30B | $1.38B | $1.08B | $35.75B | $8.37B |
As of 2026-11-02, Transdigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $1,146.81 (-2.47% 1D, market cap $65.00B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, TDG ranks #102 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), TDG carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.3x, gross margin of 60.1%, and ROIC of 63.3%. By comparison, FER (Ferrovial N.V.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 32.8x, ROIC 9.9%, cap $40.95B) and ESLT (Elbit Systems Ltd.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 70.3x, ROIC 15.1%, cap $37.55B). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMT leads on earnings multiple (29.6x) while TDG leads on capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC).
Per TDG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001260221), Transdigm Group Incorporated generated $8.83B in revenue (+11.2% YoY), $2.07B in net income, and $1.82B in free cash flow against $23.76B in total assets and $14.86B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
TDG last traded at $1,146.81 (-2.47% on volume of 395,436 shares), positioning the stock +1.64% above its 50-day simple moving average ($1,128.31) and -6.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1,223.56). Across its 52-week range of $1,071.25 to $1,463.03, TDG sits at the 19.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 60.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($1,086.03 to $1,207.59).
Why TDG Stock dropped -2.47% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 60% profit margin (63% return on capital), mixed timing at 31x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
Per the Roarable RQD rating, TDG scores 63 out of 100, a letter grade of C, with the verdict label "Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward." The five pillars are:
Taken together, the 63 score reflects a stock with strong operating economics and insider signal support, offset by a stretched valuation (P/E TTM of 31.3) and weaker macro fit. For a prospective investor, the rating points to a balanced risk-reward profile rather than a clear asymmetric opportunity.
Transdigm Group Incorporated is a NYSE-listed issuer classified in the Industrials sector and the Military/Government/Technical industry, per the profile. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model. Per the SEC financials, the company reported FY 2025 revenue of $8831.0M, indicating a scale of operations, but the mix of sales is not available in source data.
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $8831.0M | $4165.0M | $2074.0M | N/A | $1816.0M | $2528.0M | $14859.0M |
| FY 2024 | $7940.0M | $3531.0M | $1714.0M | N/A | $1880.0M | $2459.0M | $12494.7M |
| FY 2023 | $6585.0M | $2923.0M | $1298.0M | N/A | $1078.7M | N/A | $8365.5M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue grew from $6585.0M in FY 2023 to $8831.0M in FY 2025, and net income rose over the same span. Per the market data, gross margin is 60.1%, operating margin 47.2%, and net margin 23.5%, with ROIC of 63.3%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 1.76 and the Piotroski F-Score is 8/9. Debt increased from $8365.5M to $14859.0M across the reported periods, and Debt/Equity is 0.85 per the rating's forensic inputs. FCF declined from $1880.0M in FY 2024 to $1816.0M in FY 2025.
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
TransDigm Group Incorporated (NYSE: TDG) today said it will report fiscal 2026 fourth quarter earnings before the market opens on Tuesday, November 10, 2026.
This article looks at the 5 Best Defense Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. You can see the expanded list of 9 Best Defense Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds here. Despite ongoing geopolitical conflicts and ris
For questions about this article or underlying research, email help@trefis.com.
Welltower benefits from senior housing demand, T-Mobile's strong results support growth, and Starbucks' customer gains drive its recovery prospects.
Investment management company Vulcan Value Partners recently released its third-quarter 2026 investor letter. The letter can be downloaded here. The portfolio reported a strong quarter, with all strategies except Small C
Stocks that outperform the market usually share key traits such as rising sales, expanding margins, and increasing returns on capital. The select few that can do all three for many years are often the ones that make you
TransDigm is likely to report its Q4 earnings soon, and analysts forecast single-digit earnings growth.
Welcome to the TDG (Transdigm Group Incorporated) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 63/100 (Roarable Hold — Fair / Balanced Risk-Reward) in Military/Government/Technical. Bulls point to capital efficiency (63.3% ROIC), while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (31.3x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TDG, but look at what you are paying: 31.3x trailing P/E with 60.1% gross margins. Unless Transdigm Group Incorporated expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TDG, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Military/Government/Technical and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $1175.91 (52-wk range $1071.25 - $1463.03), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.
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