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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TH
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Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$13.61 -0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.57

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.36B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $13.61 (-0.44% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #655 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
▼

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.55B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?
▼

Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.57 (-0.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 27% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510045
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (13)Whales (6)SEC (11)Macro (9)CEO (6)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target
$23 Bull$13 Base$10 Bear
📬 FREE TH RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TH SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27% FCF Margin ($74.1M FCF) & 15.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.09 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
53
Grade C-$18.72-17.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
50
Grade C-$15.47-8% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
48
Grade D$14.23-4.4% Next Q
Current
45
Grade D$13.61-6.3% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TH currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.90) and Max Pain ($14.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →
RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)
3130 Oversold · 70 Hot
ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)
7.09>3.0 Fortress Safe
PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)
3 / 99-Pt Accounting
52-WEEK LASER RANGE48% OF RANGE
L: $6$13.61H: $22
1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED
Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (15.5% gross margin), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: CRQD 13 / 20
2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING
Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40
3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING
SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 20 / 40
MULTI-MODEL QUANT PANEL DELIBERATION

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground) on TH

Cash & Moat Bull AI
ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model
NEUTRAL (65)

-7.2% ROIC with 15.5% gross margin and 5.22% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI
10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard
NEUTRAL (55)

Altman-Z 7.09 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI
Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq
BEARISH (35)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 9/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TH
  • ✓Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong
  • !Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
  • !Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
  • !Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TH)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.17%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $14.24H $14.24L $13.61C $13.61VOL 2.82M
RES: $22.17SUP: $12.98SMA50: $17.90SMA200: $14.83
$22.67$18.88$15.09$11.30$7.51RES $22.17SUP $12.98$13.612026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TH Butterfly Map → + Track TH →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #655 of 1009 ⚔️ MLCO vs TH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TH vs. MLCO, HBNB, XHR, MCRI)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) ranks #655 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #468 by equity capitalization ($1.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. XHR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TH at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TH ACTIVE
Target Hospitality Corp.
D 45/100 — 15.5% -7.2% -0.44% $1.36B Benchmark Subject
MLCO
Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited
D 44/100 8.2x — 10.6% +4.57% $1.55B /mlco-vs-th →
HBNB
Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)
D 50/100 — — — +8.21% $1.11B /hbnb-vs-th →
XHR
Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.
C- 59/100 30.3x 30.6% 8.5% +2.64% $1.89B /xhr-vs-th →
MCRI
Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.
D+ 57/100 19.8x 23.4% 18.9% +3.80% $1.98B /mcri-vs-th →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712189 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported GAAP revenue of $274.8M (+3.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $265.9M , and -24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.1M, operating cash flow of $74.1M, and free cash flow of $74.1M (-51.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TH closed FY2025 with $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.09, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $274.8M -$37.1M $74.1M $74.1M $530.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $265.9M $71.4M $151.7M $151.7M $725.8M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $365.6M $173.7M $156.8M $156.8M — —

3. TH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $13.61 (-0.44% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #655 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.55B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TH last traded at $13.61 (-0.44% on volume of 2,151,837 shares), positioning the stock -23.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.90) and -8.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.83). Across its 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76, TH sits at the 48.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($12.18 to $15.04).

Direct Sub-Reports: TH RQD Cockpit TH 12M Forecast TH Earnings & Move TH Dividends & DRIP TH Insiders & 13F TH Whale Options TH Profit Sankey TH News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TH — Target Hospitality Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $13.61 (-0.44% 1D, market capitalization $1.36B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.2%, gross margin of 15.5%, operating margin of -12.6%, and free cash flow yield of 5.22%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.09, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Hotels/Resorts industry. The Financial Trend data shows revenue of $274.8M for FY 2025, but the source does not attribute that revenue to specific segments or customer types.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported $274.8M in annual revenue (up from $265.9M in FY2024, +3.4% YoY) and -$37.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($365.6M revenue, $173.7M net income) through FY2025, TH scaled operating cash flow to $74.1M and free cash flow to $74.1M, backed by $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 5.22% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.97 – $21.76 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -12.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector and industry are recorded as Consumer Discretionary and Hotels/Resorts, and the rating's Macro Regime Fit pillar cites sector sensitivity without quantifying it in the source. An investor should watch whether the $202.4M institutional sale referenced in the news feed is part of a broader ownership shift, since the source does not resolve that question. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the supplied data.

  • Key Question #1: Can TH sustain or expand its -12.6% operating margin and -7.2% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $274.8M and free cash flow of $74.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TH's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TH Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TH:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.95 (+24.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet strength (Altman Z 7.09, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 5.22% FCF yield give the stock a cash-based valuation floor.

Here is why I am bullish on TH here at $13.67: Balance sheet strength (Altman Z 7.09, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 5.22% FCF yield give the stock a cash-based valuation floor.. Compare TH's -12.6% operating margin and -7.2% ROIC against the rest of Hotels/Resorts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.99 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Hotels/Resorts. If gross margin (15.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.76 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $13.67

Operating income swung from $108.8M in FY 2024 to a -$34.7M loss in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -7.2% and a large institutional sale was

Careful chasing TH at $13.67. Operating income swung from $108.8M in FY 2024 to a -$34.7M loss in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -7.2% and a large institutional sale was reported.. Gross margin is 15.5%, but operating margin is -12.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $11.76 on multiple compression.

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