How profitable is Target Hospitality Corp. (TH)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), TH converted $274.8M of revenue into a 15.5% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $74.1M in free cash flow (27% FCF margin).

Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / TH / financials

MLCO (44) HBNB (50) XHR (59) MCRI (57) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$13.61 -0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.57

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 45/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.36B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-03, Target Hospitality Corp. (NASDAQ: TH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 45/100 at a spot price of $13.61 (-0.44% 1D, market cap $1.36B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 9/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 6/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, TH ranks #655 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Hotels/Resorts), TH carries a Roarable D (45/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 15.5%, and ROIC of -7.2%. By comparison, MLCO (Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 8.2x, ROIC 10.6%, cap $1.55B) and HBNB (Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.11B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MLCO leads on earnings multiple (8.2x) while MCRI leads on capital efficiency (18.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

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Per TH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001712189), Target Hospitality Corp. generated $274.8M in revenue (+3.4% YoY), -$37.1M in net income, and $74.1M in free cash flow against $530.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.57 (-0.27%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 27% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (45/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (45/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TH SCORES 45/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (29% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 27% FCF Margin ($74.1M FCF) & 15.5% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 7.09 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$18.72-17.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$15.47-8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$14.23-4.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$13.61-6.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (53) → D (45)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TH currently carries a cautious 45/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($17.90) and Max Pain ($14.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.85.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 45%NO 55%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How TH Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$74.1M (27% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $365.6M

FY24

Rev $265.9M

FY25

Rev $274.8M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$274.8M	15.5%	-12.6%	-$37.1M	$74.1M	-7.2%
FY 2024	$265.9M	67%	40.9%	$71.4M	$151.7M	37.3%
FY 2023	$365.6M	15.5%	65.8%	$173.7M	$156.8M	-7.2%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TH)

✓Walkthrough of TH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -10.17%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-03O $14.24H $14.24L $13.61C $13.61VOL 2.82M

RES: $22.17SUP: $12.98SMA50: $17.90SMA200: $14.83

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TH Butterfly Map → + Track TH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +3.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #655 of 1009 ⚔️ MLCO vs TH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (TH vs. MLCO, HBNB, XHR, MCRI)

Industry: Hotels/Resorts (35 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) ranks #655 by composite RQD confidence (45/100, grade D) and #468 by equity capitalization ($1.36B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MLCO leads on earnings valuation at 8.2x trailing P/E, while MCRI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.9% ROIC and 23.4% gross margin. XHR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with TH at 45/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TH ACTIVE Target Hospitality Corp.	D	45/100	—	15.5%	-7.2%	-0.44%	$1.36B	Benchmark Subject
MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited	D	44/100	8.2x	—	10.6%	+4.57%	$1.55B	/mlco-vs-th →
HBNB Hotel101 Global Holdings Corp. (Class A)	D	50/100	—	—	—	+8.21%	$1.11B	/hbnb-vs-th →
XHR Xenia Hotels & Resorts Inc.	C-	59/100	30.3x	30.6%	8.5%	+2.64%	$1.89B	/xhr-vs-th →
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc.	D+	57/100	19.8x	23.4%	18.9%	+3.80%	$1.98B	/mcri-vs-th →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001712189 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported GAAP revenue of $274.8M (+3.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $265.9M , and -24.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$37.1M, operating cash flow of $74.1M, and free cash flow of $74.1M (-51.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, TH closed FY2025 with $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 7.09, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$274.8M	-$37.1M	$74.1M	$74.1M	$530.2M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$265.9M	$71.4M	$151.7M	$151.7M	$725.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$365.6M	$173.7M	$156.8M	$156.8M	—	—

3. TH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does TH compare to MLCO and HBNB in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TH?

Where is TH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TH last traded at $13.61 (-0.44% on volume of 2,151,837 shares), positioning the stock -23.97% below its 50-day simple moving average ($17.90) and -8.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($14.83). Across its 52-week range of $5.97 to $21.76, TH sits at the 48.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.5% ($12.18 to $15.04).

Direct Sub-Reports: TH RQD Cockpit TH 12M Forecast TH Earnings & Move TH Dividends & DRIP TH Insiders & 13F TH Whale Options TH Profit Sankey TH News & Why

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 45/100 (D) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TH — Target Hospitality Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit

Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 45/100, corresponding to a D letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $13.61 (-0.44% 1D, market capitalization $1.36B).

Fundamental Cash Engine (13/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -7.2%, gross margin of 15.5%, operating margin of -12.6%, and free cash flow yield of 5.22%.
Whale 13F & Options Flow (6/20) + Insider Conviction (6/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
Macro Regime Fit (9/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (11/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 7.09, Piotroski F-Score of 3/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Consumer Discretionary sector, operating in the Hotels/Resorts industry. The Financial Trend data shows revenue of $274.8M for FY 2025, but the source does not attribute that revenue to specific segments or customer types.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) reported $274.8M in annual revenue (up from $265.9M in FY2024, +3.4% YoY) and -$37.1M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($365.6M revenue, $173.7M net income) through FY2025, TH scaled operating cash flow to $74.1M and free cash flow to $74.1M, backed by $530.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

🐂 Primary Bull Case (D • RQD 45/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of 5.22% and institutional whale pillar of 6/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 13/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 6/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.97 – $21.76 52-week range.
🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -12.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies are therefore — Sector and industry are recorded as Consumer Discretionary and Hotels/Resorts, and the rating's Macro Regime Fit pillar cites sector sensitivity without quantifying it in the source. An investor should watch whether the $202.4M institutional sale referenced in the news feed is part of a broader ownership shift, since the source does not resolve that question. Second-order bottlenecks cannot be identified from the supplied data.

Key Question #1: Can TH sustain or expand its -12.6% operating margin and -7.2% ROIC against Hotels/Resorts peers over the next 4 quarters?
Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $274.8M and free cash flow of $74.1M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
Key Question #3: How sensitive is TH's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TH Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TH Debate Forum (3) ↓

🟢 CATALYST Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Wall Street Analysts Think Target Hospitality (TH) Could Surge 39.76%: Read This Before Placing a Bet

Yahoo Finance report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE StockInvest.us • 1d ago

Target Hospitality Stock Price Forecast. Should You Buy TH?

StockInvest.us report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Investing.com • 1d ago

TDR Capital II investments LP sells $202.4m Target Hospitality stock By Investing.com

Investing.com report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE TradingView • 1d ago

Target Hospitality Corp. Estimates – NASDAQ:TH

TradingView report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Yahoo Finance • 1d ago

Is Target Hospitality (TH) Reasonable On Future Cash Flow?

Yahoo Finance report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE MarketBeat • 1d ago

Target Hospitality (NASDAQ:TH) Shares Down 7.7% - Here's What Happened

MarketBeat report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Timothy Sykes • 2d ago

TH Stock Dips As Target Hospitality Holders Accelerate Selling

Timothy Sykes report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🟡 MARKET WIRE Stock Titan • 2d ago

Q3 results are due before markets open Nov. 9; Target Hospitality's call starts at 9 a.m. ET.

Stock Titan report covering Target Hospitality Corp. (TH) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

Read Full Source ↗

🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TH Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $13.61?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TH 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION

DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $16.95 (+24.0%)

📌 Pinned Debate

Balance sheet strength (Altman Z 7.09, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 5.22% FCF yield give the stock a cash-based valuation floor.

Here is why I am bullish on TH here at $13.67: Balance sheet strength (Altman Z 7.09, Debt/Equity 0.5) and a 5.22% FCF yield give the stock a cash-based valuation floor.. Compare TH's -12.6% operating margin and -7.2% ROIC against the rest of Hotels/Resorts. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $12.99 are getting bought.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MeanReversion_88 Fair point on current EV/EBITDA multiples, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Hotels/Resorts. If gross margin (15.5%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

ME MeanReversion_88 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Quantitative Statistical Arb 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $11.76 (-14.0%)

Spot @ $13.67

Operating income swung from $108.8M in FY 2024 to a -$34.7M loss in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -7.2% and a large institutional sale was

Careful chasing TH at $13.67. Operating income swung from $108.8M in FY 2024 to a -$34.7M loss in FY 2025 while ROIC sits at -7.2% and a large institutional sale was reported.. Gross margin is 15.5%, but operating margin is -12.6%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $11.76 on multiple compression.