T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$156.44 +6.21% NASDAQ β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $157.89

T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ β€’ SELL / AVOID Cap $156.02B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TMUS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-02, T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $156.44 (+6.21% 1D, market cap $156.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, TMUS ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TMUS compare to T and VZ in the Communication Services sector?
β–Ό

Within the Communication Services sector (Telecommunications Equipment), TMUS carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 10.7%. By comparison, T (AT&T Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $140.93B) and VZ (Verizon Communications Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $181.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, T leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while TMUS leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMUS?
β–Ό

Per TMUS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001283699), T-Mobile US Inc. generated $88.31B in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $10.99B in net income, and $18.00B in free cash flow against $219.24B in total assets and $81.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $157.89 (+0.93%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) β€’ 20.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 50.6% hit rate β€” wait for RQD β‰₯ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID β€’ D+
025507510053
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- Β· Rk D-
Cash (14)Whales (6)SEC (7)Macro (10)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.3% Base Target
$236 Bull$153 Base$119 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE TMUS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TMUS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY TMUS SCORES 53/100 (D+) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy β€’ Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (26% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 20.4% FCF Margin ($18.00B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
45
Grade D$153.73+2.6% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
48
Grade D$157.75-6.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
50
Grade C-$146.83+6.5% Next Q
Current
53
Grade D+$156.44-0.9% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: D (45) β†’ D+ (53)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TMUS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While TMUS currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($165.71) and Max Pain ($164.26) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $235.99.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TMUSβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œTMUS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD
4.44% Total Yield
2.64% Cash ($4.13/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks
PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER
88/100 β€’ FORTRESS PAYOUT
FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO
14.9% of FCF
8 consecutive years of payout growth
INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (9.1% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years β†’ $23,892

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $1,061/yr
$10.9K
Yr 1
$11.9K
Yr 2
$13.0K
Yr 3
$14.2K
Yr 4
$15.5K
Yr 5
$16.9K
Yr 6
$18.4K
Yr 7
$20.1K
Yr 8
$21.9K
Yr 9
$23.9K
Yr 10
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP β€’ SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TMUS)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of TMUS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • βœ“Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TMUS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.54%β–Ό DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-11-02O $148.1H $156.4L $147.3C $156.4VOL 7.23M
RES: $178.8SUP: $140.3SMA50: $165.7SMA200: $186.6
$221.5$200.4$179.3$158.3$137.2RES $178.8SUP $140.3$156.42026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-02
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TMUS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
6.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TMUS today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TMUS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TMUS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TMUS)

Communication Services Rank #48 of 132 βš”οΈ T vs TMUS Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Communication Services Peer Comparison (TMUS vs. T, VZ, LITE, AMX)

Industry: Telecommunications Equipment (81 Tracked Issuers)

Across 132 tracked Communication Services securities in the Roarable RQD universe, T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) ranks #48 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #7 by equity capitalization ($156.02B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, T leads on earnings valuation at 6.4x trailing P/E, while TMUS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 10.7% ROIC and β€” gross margin. LITE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 66/100 (C+) compared with TMUS at 53/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TMUS ACTIVE
T-Mobile US Inc.
D+ 53/100 14.2x β€” 10.7% +6.21% $156.02B Benchmark Subject
T
AT&T Inc.
D+ 55/100 6.4x β€” 6.7% +2.34% $140.93B /t-vs-tmus β†’
VZ
Verizon Communications Inc.
D+ 57/100 10.3x β€” 8.5% +2.45% $181.40B /vz-vs-tmus β†’
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
C+ 66/100 β€” 41.7% 6.2% -8.57% $83.29B /lite-vs-tmus β†’
AMX
America Movil S.A.B. de C.V. American
C- 60/100 32.8x β€” 9.9% +1.45% $72.63B /amx-vs-tmus β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001283699

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) reported GAAP revenue of $88.31B (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $81.40B , and +12.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $10.99B, operating cash flow of $27.95B, and free cash flow of $18.00B (+33.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, TMUS closed FY2025 with $219.24B in total assets against $81.15B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.70, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $88.31B $10.99B $27.95B $18.00B $219.24B $81.15B
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $81.40B $11.34B $22.29B $13.45B $208.03B $74.20B
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $78.56B $8.32B $18.56B $15.02B $94.27B $22.06B

3. TMUS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TMUS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-02, T-Mobile US Inc. (NASDAQ: TMUS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $156.44 (+6.21% 1D, market cap $156.02B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 7/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 132 tracked Communication Services issuers, TMUS ranks #48 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TMUS compare to T and VZ in the Communication Services sector?

Within the Communication Services sector (Telecommunications Equipment), TMUS carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 14.2x, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of 10.7%. By comparison, T (AT&T Inc.) holds a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E 6.4x, ROIC 6.7%, cap $140.93B) and VZ (Verizon Communications Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.3x, ROIC 8.5%, cap $181.40B). Among the 5-stock peer group, T leads on earnings multiple (6.4x) while TMUS leads on capital efficiency (10.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TMUS?

Per TMUS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001283699), T-Mobile US Inc. generated $88.31B in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $10.99B in net income, and $18.00B in free cash flow against $219.24B in total assets and $81.15B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TMUS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TMUS last traded at $156.44 (+6.21% on volume of 11,498,174 shares), positioning the stock -5.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($165.71) and -16.14% below its 200-day simple moving average ($186.55). Across its 52-week range of $143.75 to $224.75, TMUS sits at the 15.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.6% ($146.11 to $166.77).

TMUS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS β€’ SEC EDGAR Γ— CBOE Γ— FRED

Does TMUS pay a dividend and is it safe?

T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) offers a 2.64% cash dividend yield ($4.13 annualized) and 4.44% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as FORTRESS PAYOUT.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 53/100 (D+) βœ“ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TMUS β€” T-Mobile US Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:09:20Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TMUS scores 53 out of 100, a D+ grade labeled "Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 14 out of 20 (ROIC 10.7%; FCF yield 11.53%); Whale 13F Flow at 6 out of 20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning); Insider Conviction at 16 out of 20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow); Macro Regime Fit at 10 out of 20 (Beta 1.03; sector sensitivity); and Forensic Balance Sheet at 7 out of 20 (Altman Z 1.7; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 1.37).

For a prospective investor, the strongest pillar is insider conviction, and the cash-generation metrics are respectable, with an 11.53% FCF yield providing a meaningful valuation cushion. The weakest pillars are institutional flow and balance sheet forensics. An Altman Z of 1.7 sits in a range that warrants caution, and a Debt/Equity of 1.37 means leverage is a material consideration. The beta of 1.03 indicates the stock tracks broad market moves closely, so macro conditions will influence it. Valuation (P/E 14.2 TTM, forward P/E 13.2) appears modest relative to earnings, but the RQD framework weights balance-sheet and flow signals heavily enough to produce a sell-leaning verdict. The upside case rests on cash conversion and insider confidence; the downside case rests on leverage and weak institutional support.

Snapshot

PriceMarket CapP/E (TTM)Forward P/EEV/EBITDAEPS (TTM)Dividend YieldBeta52-Wk RangeROIC %
$147.29$156.02B14.213.28.710.382.64%1.03$143.75 - $224.7510.7%

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$88309.0M$18279.0M$10992.0MN/A$17995.0M$5598.0M$81147.0M
FY 2024$81400.0M$18010.0M$11339.0MN/A$13453.0M$5409.0M$74197.0M
FY 2023$78558.0M$14266.0M$8317.0MN/A$15023.9MN/A$22059.1M

Per the market data, operating margin is 20.7%, net margin 12.4%, and gross margin 0%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, ROIC is 10.7%, the Altman Z-Score is 1.7, and the Piotroski F-Score is 6 out of 9. Debt/Equity is 1.37 per the RQD rating; reported debt rose from $74,197.0M in FY 2024 to $81,147.0M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials, while cash moved from $5,409.0M to $5,598.0M over the same period.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all tagged to TMUS, with no summary-level content beyond headlines. Titles reflect negative price action, including "Why T-Mobile US Stock Dropped Today" (RISK WATCH, RED), "Why T-Mobile Stock Just Crashed" (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW), "T-Mobile US Inc Stock (TMUS) Moved Down by 9.89% on Oct 9" (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW), and "T-Mobile US plunges 13% to new 52-week low amid new competitive threat" (MARKET WIRE, YELLOW). One item, "Why is T-Mobile US stock rallying today?" (CATALYST, GREEN), points the other way. The competitive-threat reference in the Seeking Alpha headline is the only named catalyst in the wire. Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, no supply-chain links or proprietary signals are recorded.

Open Questions

  • What specifically drove the competitive threat cited in the Seeking Alpha headline, and how does it affect subscriber or pricing trends?
  • What is the composition of the debt load and its maturity schedule, given the 1.37 Debt/Equity and 1.7 Altman Z?
  • Why is FY 2025 EPS reported as N/A, and how does per-share earnings trend across periods?
  • Who are the institutional holders and insiders behind the 16-of-20 insider conviction pillar and the 6-of-20 flow pillar?
  • Why does FY 2023 cash show as N/A while debt is reported, and how complete is the historical balance-sheet series?

TMUS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to TMUS Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TMUS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $156.44?

πŸ‚ 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TMUS 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TMUS:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk βš–οΈ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $159.07 (+8.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

πŸ”₯ Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TMUS (D+ β€’ RQD 53/100) a Buy at $147.29?

Welcome to the TMUS (T-Mobile US Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 53/100 (Roarable Sell β€” Weak Fundamentals / Trim) in Telecommunications Equipment. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (πŸ‚ Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $123.72 (-16.0%)
Spot @ $147.29

Pump the brakes on TMUS β€” check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TMUS, but look at what you are paying: 14.2x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless T-Mobile US Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

MI MidwestValue Verified K Arena Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $182.64 (+24.0%)
Spot @ $147.29

TMUS cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TMUS, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Telecommunications Equipment and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $147.29 (52-wk range $143.75 - $224.75), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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