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Stock Ratings / Health Care / TNXP / options
RTSN (51) PLYX (27) MIST (33) GNLX (26) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$5.15 +0.98% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.15

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 25/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $88.3M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TNXP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: TNXP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $5.15 (+0.98% 1D, market cap $88.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TNXP ranks #929 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TNXP compare to RTSN and PLYX in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TNXP carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RTSN (Retension Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $89.1M) and PLYX (Polaryx Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $87.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TNXP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TNXP leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TNXP?
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Per TNXP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001430306), Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. generated $13.1M in revenue (+29.8% YoY), -$124.0M in net income, and -$103.2M in free cash flow against $277.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $5.15 (-0.01%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (25/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510025
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw E · Rk D-
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (8)Macro (7)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-14.8% Base Target
$22 Bull$4 Base$3 Bear
📬 FREE TNXP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TNXP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (25/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TNXP SCORES 25/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+7/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 19.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
33
Grade E$6.40-15.2% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
30
Grade E$5.43-1.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
28
Grade E$5.37-4.1% Next Q
Current
25
Grade E$5.15-10.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (33) → E (25)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TNXP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TNXP currently carries a cautious 25/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($9.07) and Max Pain ($5.41) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $21.59.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TNXP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TNXP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 25%NO 75%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TNXP)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TNXP.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TNXP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TNXP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TNXP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -61.85%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-04O $5.10H $5.15L $5.10C $5.15VOL 622.6K
RES: $13.62SUP: $4.80SMA50: $9.07SMA200: $12.30
$22.58$17.81$13.03$8.25$3.48RES $13.62SUP $4.80$5.152026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TNXP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TNXP Butterfly Map → + Track TNXP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TNXP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TNXP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TNXP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TNXP)

Health Care Rank #929 of 1015 ⚔️ RTSN vs TNXP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TNXP vs. RTSN, PLYX, MIST, GNLX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) ranks #929 by composite RQD confidence (25/100, grade E) and #668 by equity capitalization ($88.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TNXP leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TNXP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and 49.3% gross margin. RTSN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 51/100 (D) compared with TNXP at 25/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TNXP ACTIVE
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.
E 25/100 — 49.3% -35.0% +0.98% $88.3M Benchmark Subject
RTSN
Retension Pharmaceuticals Inc.
D 51/100 — — — -0.53% $89.1M /rtsn-vs-tnxp →
PLYX
Polaryx Therapeutics Inc.
E 27/100 — — -35.0% 0.00% $87.2M /plyx-vs-tnxp →
MIST
Milestone Pharmaceuticals Inc.
E 33/100 — — -35.0% -1.22% $89.8M /mist-vs-tnxp →
GNLX
Genelux Corporation
E 26/100 — — -35.0% -3.85% $90.5M /gnlx-vs-tnxp →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001430306 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) reported GAAP revenue of $13.1M (+29.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $10.1M , and +68.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$124.0M, operating cash flow of -$99.8M, and free cash flow of -$103.2M (-69.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, TNXP closed FY2025 with $277.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $13.1M -$124.0M -$99.8M -$103.2M $277.2M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $10.1M -$130.0M -$60.9M -$61.0M $162.9M $4.7M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $7.8M -$116.7M -$102.0M -$102.0M — —

3. TNXP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TNXP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: TNXP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 25/100 at a spot price of $5.15 (+0.98% 1D, market cap $88.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TNXP ranks #929 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TNXP compare to RTSN and PLYX in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TNXP carries a Roarable E (25/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 49.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, RTSN (Retension Pharmaceuticals Inc.) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $89.1M) and PLYX (Polaryx Therapeutics Inc.) posts a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $87.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TNXP leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TNXP leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TNXP?

Per TNXP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001430306), Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. generated $13.1M in revenue (+29.8% YoY), -$124.0M in net income, and -$103.2M in free cash flow against $277.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TNXP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TNXP last traded at $5.15 (+0.98% on volume of 622,552 shares), positioning the stock -43.22% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.07) and -58.13% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.30). Across its 52-week range of $4.96 to $20.56, TNXP sits at the 1.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 19.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($4.51 to $5.79).

Direct Sub-Reports: TNXP RQD Cockpit TNXP 12M Forecast TNXP Earnings & Move TNXP Dividends & DRIP TNXP Insiders & 13F TNXP Whale Options TNXP Profit Sankey TNXP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 25/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TNXP — Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 25/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $5.15 (+0.98% 1D, market capitalization $88.3M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 49.3%, operating margin of -60.0%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector, classified under Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. The profile does not describe specific products, customers, or revenue streams. The company reported revenue of $13.1M for FY 2025 and $10.1M for FY 2024, indicating a revenue base that is small relative to its reported operating losses.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) reported $13.1M in annual revenue (up from $10.1M in FY2024, +29.8% YoY) and -$124.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($7.8M revenue, -$116.7M net income) through FY2025, TNXP scaled operating cash flow to -$99.8M and free cash flow to -$103.2M, backed by $277.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 25/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $4.96 – $20.56 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -60.0% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (Health Care), TNXP carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 49.3%.

  • Key Question #1: Can TNXP sustain or expand its -60.0% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $13.1M and free cash flow of -$103.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TNXP's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TNXP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. (TNXP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TNXP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TNXP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $5.15?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TNXP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TNXP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER • Swing & Catalyst Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $6.12 (+20.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Reported cash rose to $207.6M in FY 2025, a substantial buffer relative to the $90.6M market cap.

Long TNXP at $5.10 targeting $6.12. Reported cash rose to $207.6M in FY 2025, a substantial buffer relative to the $90.6M market cap.. Institutional whale score is 3/20 and the risk/reward vs. the $4.96 52-week low is skewed heavily in favor of bulls.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@BreakoutHunter Agree on the RQD 25/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $5.10 and keeping dry powder in case we test $4.74.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $3.82 (-25.1%)
Spot @ $5.10

With an Altman Z of 0.2, ROIC of -35%, and a -$125.7M FY 2025 operating loss against $13.1M revenue, the company shows severe forensic

I respect the product at Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., but the stock at $5.10 is a different story. With an Altman Z of 0.2, ROIC of -35%, and a -$125.7M FY 2025 operating loss against $13.1M revenue, the company shows severe forensic and cash-engine weakness.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 25/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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