Why TRC Stock dropped -2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$16.38 -2.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.28

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 44/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $442.6M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tejon Ranch Co (NYSE: TRC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $16.38 (-2.27% 1D, market cap $442.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TRC ranks #755 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRC compare to AHRT and BOC in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), TRC carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.3%. By comparison, AHRT (AH Realty Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 116.9x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $453.5M) and BOC (Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.6%, cap $389.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRPH leads on earnings multiple (114.6x) while AHRT leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRC?
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Per TRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000096869), Tejon Ranch Co generated $49.6M in revenue (+18.4% YoY), $75.0K in net income, and $6.1M in free cash flow against $630.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $16.28 (-0.60%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 12.4% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (44/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.5% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
025507510044
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Cash (12)Whales (6)SEC (13)Macro (6)CEO (7)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-6.3% Base Target
$22 Bull$15 Base$12 Bear
📬 FREE TRC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (44/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TRC SCORES 44/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (30% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 6/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 12.4% FCF Margin ($6.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (49.7) create a -14 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
52
Grade C-$16.50-2.1% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$16.15+1.2% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
47
Grade D$16.35+0.2% Next Q
Current
44
Grade D$16.38-6.5% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C- (52) → D (44)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TRC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TRC currently carries a cautious 44/100 (D) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.29) and Max Pain ($17.20) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $22.38.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TRC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TRC Stock dropped -2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) dropped -2.27% to $16.38, trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($15.31 – $21.31). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 18% of its 52-week range ($15.31 – $21.31) with RSI-14 at 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.1% around $16.38 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $6.1M annual free cash flow.
Live TRC Headlines & Catalysts
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TRC)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TRC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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TRC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.61%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-03O $16.76H $16.76L $16.38C $16.38VOL 99.6K
RES: $16.95SUP: $15.79SMA50: $16.29SMA200: $17.74
$21.70$20.10$18.49$16.89$15.29RES $16.95SUP $15.79$16.382026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRC)

Financials Rank #755 of 1096 ⚔️ AHRT vs TRC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TRC vs. AHRT, BOC, REAX, FRPH)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) ranks #755 by composite RQD confidence (44/100, grade D) and #730 by equity capitalization ($442.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, FRPH leads on earnings valuation at 114.6x trailing P/E, while AHRT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 6.5% ROIC and — gross margin. TRC currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 44/100 (D).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TRC ACTIVE
Tejon Ranch Co
D 44/100 — — -1.3% -2.27% $442.6M Benchmark Subject
AHRT
AH Realty Trust Inc.
D- 37/100 116.9x — 6.5% -0.49% $453.5M /ahrt-vs-trc →
BOC
Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)
D- 35/100 — — -0.6% -0.38% $389.8M /boc-vs-trc →
REAX
Real REMAX Group Inc.
D- 43/100 — — — -3.04% $512.3M /reax-vs-trc →
FRPH
FRP Holdings Inc.
E 28/100 114.6x — 1.3% -1.00% $360.0M /frph-vs-trc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000096869

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) reported GAAP revenue of $49.6M (+18.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $41.9M , and +10.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $75.0K, operating cash flow of $6.1M, and free cash flow of $6.1M (+114.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRC closed FY2025 with $630.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $49.6M $75.0K $6.1M $6.1M $630.5M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $41.9M $2.7M $14.3M -$42.9M $608.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $44.7M $3.3M $13.7M $13.7M — —

3. TRC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tejon Ranch Co (NYSE: TRC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 44/100 at a spot price of $16.38 (-2.27% 1D, market cap $442.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, TRC ranks #755 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRC compare to AHRT and BOC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), TRC carries a Roarable D (44/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -1.3%. By comparison, AHRT (AH Realty Trust Inc.) holds a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E 116.9x, ROIC 6.5%, cap $453.5M) and BOC (Boston Omaha Corporation (Class A)) posts a D- grade (35/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -0.6%, cap $389.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, FRPH leads on earnings multiple (114.6x) while AHRT leads on capital efficiency (6.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRC?

Per TRC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000096869), Tejon Ranch Co generated $49.6M in revenue (+18.4% YoY), $75.0K in net income, and $6.1M in free cash flow against $630.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRC last traded at $16.38 (-2.27% on volume of 99,563 shares), positioning the stock +0.55% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.29) and -7.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($17.74). Across its 52-week range of $15.31 to $21.31, TRC sits at the 17.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.1% ($15.54 to $17.22).

TRC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Why is TRC stock moving today?

Why TRC Stock dropped -2.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-1% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 44/100 (D) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TRC — Tejon Ranch Co: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:36:19Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TRC scores 47 out of 100, a letter grade of D, with the verdict "Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 12 / 20. The rating cites ROIC of -1.3% and an FCF yield of 1.35%. For a prospective investor, this indicates the business is not currently generating a return above its cost of capital, and the cash yield on the current price is thin.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 9 / 20. The rating characterizes institutional accumulation and options positioning as weak in this framework. Institutional support is not a visible tailwind in the scoring.
  • Insider Conviction: 7 / 20. Per the rating, SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow is scored low. The news wire does reference a director purchase (see Recent Catalysts), but the rating does not score it as a strong conviction cluster.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. The rating cites beta of 1.0 and sector sensitivity. The stock moves in line with the market, and the rating scores its positioning against the current regime as unfavorable.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 13 / 20. The rating cites Altman Z of 2.5, Piotroski F of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.5. This is the strongest pillar, indicating the balance sheet is more stable than the earnings engine.

Investor implications, framed analytically: the upside case rests mainly on a turnaround in operating economics, since the current cash engine and flow signals are weak. Valuation tradeoffs are significant: with a negative ROIC, a 1.35% FCF yield, and no reported P/E, traditional earnings-based valuation cannot be anchored from the source data. The balance-sheet pillar offers some downside cushion relative to the earnings profile, but does not offset the weakness in the other four pillars.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$49.6M$-8.0M$0.1MN/A$6.1M$9.5MN/A
FY 2024$41.9M$-9.2M$2.7MN/A$-42.9M$39.3MN/A
FY 2023$44.7M$-3.7M$3.3MN/A$13.7MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, operating income was negative in all three reported periods, while net income was positive but small. Per the market data, gross margin is 0%, operating margin is -16%, and net margin is 0.2%. ROIC is -1.3% and the FCF yield is 1.35%. Per the RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9. Debt/Equity is 0.5 per the rating; the period-level debt figures are N/A in the SEC financials.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

The news wire contains six items, all flagged YELLOW and classified as MARKET WIRE:

  • A Seeking Alpha report, "Tejon Ranch: Plenty Of Land, But Patience Has A Price," which the source summarizes only generically.
  • A MarketBeat report noting the share price broke below its 200-day moving average.
  • Stock Titan reports on a director award bringing trust holdings to 450,357 shares, and on director Andrew Dakos receiving 1,021 shares at a reported $16.22 each.
  • A Kalkine Media report describing Andrew Dakos purchasing 1,021 shares at $16.22 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
  • A report stating the stock traded flat at $16.35, midway between support and resistance, with a triangle correction pattern.

Risk watch items: the price breaking below its 200-day moving average and the weak RQD pillar scores. Proprietary signals: none present in the Butterfly graph. The news summaries are generic templates and provide no quantified operating catalyst.

Open Questions

  • What is the composition of revenue and what drives the gap between operating losses and positive net income in FY 2024 and FY 2025?
  • What explains the swing in FCF from $13.7M in FY 2023 to $-42.9M in FY 2024 and $6.1M in FY 2025?
  • What is the reported debt balance and how does it relate to the Debt/Equity of 0.5 cited in the rating?
  • Why are EPS and cash for FY 2023 not reported, and what are the period-level debt figures?
  • What analyst consensus and price targets exist for TRC, and who are the material institutional holders?

TRC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tejon Ranch Co (TRC) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TRC Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TRC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $16.38?

🐂 50% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TRC 🐻 50% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TRC:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk ⚖️ DEBATE HOST 🎯 Target: $18.10 (+8.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TRC (D • RQD 47/100) a Buy at $16.76?

Welcome to the TRC (Tejon Ranch Co) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 47/100 (Roarable Sell — Underperform / Distribution Warning) in Real Estate. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RI RiskArb_Desk Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $13.41 (-20.0%)
Spot @ $16.76

Pump the brakes on TRC — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TRC, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Tejon Ranch Co expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

SI SiliconVal_Bull Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $21.45 (+28.0%)
Spot @ $16.76

TRC cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TRC, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Real Estate and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $16.76 (52-wk range $15.31 - $21.31), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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