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Stock Ratings / Financials / TRTX / earnings
BDN (46) ADAM (51) UHT (61) OLP (58) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.4% Move

$6.81 -0.29% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.79

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 54/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $517.9M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TRTX Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TRTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $6.81 (-0.29% 1D, market cap $517.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TRTX ranks #558 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TRTX compare to BDN and ADAM in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), TRTX carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, BDN (Brandywine Realty Trust) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.8%, cap $518.6M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRTX?
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Per TRTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001630472), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. generated $1.85B in revenue (+18.1% YoY), $60.3M in net income, and $90.4M in free cash flow against $4.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.79 (-0.24%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 4.9% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 54/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.7% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 51.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
025507510054
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D+ · Rk D
Cash (11)Whales (7)SEC (13)Macro (7)CEO (16)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-1.8% Base Target
$10 Bull$7 Base$5 Bear
📬 FREE TRTX RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TRTX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (54/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TRTX SCORES 54/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (30% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (65.1) create a -13 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
46
Grade D$5.64+3.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
49
Grade D$5.85+10.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
51
Grade C-$6.49+4.9% Next Q
Current
54
Grade D+$6.81-0.7% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (46) → D+ (54)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TRTX Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TRTX currently carries a cautious 54/100 (D+) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.70) and Max Pain ($7.15) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $9.82.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TRTX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TRTX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 54%NO 46%Trade / Inspect Odds →
NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~55 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.4% Swing Band

±$0.50 Expected Swing
$6.31 (-7.4%)Spot $6.81$7.31 (+7.4%)
MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

TRTX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 54/100

Trailing EPS: $0.80 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (54/100)Model Risk Weight (46/100)
Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).
LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

PeriodFiledRevenueNet ProfitFree Cash FlowGross Margin
FY 20252025-12-31$1.85B$60.3M$90.4M52%
FY 20242024-12-31$1.57B$74.3M$112.1M52%
FY 20232023-12-31$524.8M-$116.6M$80.1M52%
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TRTX)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TRTX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TRTX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -20.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $6.50H $6.83L $6.50C $6.81VOL 2.40M
RES: $6.84SUP: $5.25SMA50: $6.70SMA200: $7.96
$9.07$8.13$7.19$6.25$5.31RES $6.84SUP $5.25$6.812026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TRTX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TRTX Butterfly Map → + Track TRTX →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
-5.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +18.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TRTX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TRTX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TRTX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TRTX)

Financials Rank #558 of 1097 ⚔️ BDN vs TRTX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (TRTX vs. BDN, ADAM, UHT, OLP)

Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) ranks #558 by composite RQD confidence (54/100, grade D+) and #693 by equity capitalization ($517.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ADAM leads on earnings valuation at 4.4x trailing P/E, while UHT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.8% ROIC and — gross margin. UHT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with TRTX at 54/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TRTX ACTIVE
TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.
D+ 54/100 8.1x — 5.6% -0.29% $517.9M Benchmark Subject
BDN
Brandywine Realty Trust
D 46/100 — — 2.8% -0.98% $518.6M /bdn-vs-trtx →
ADAM
Adamas Trust Inc.
D 51/100 4.4x — 8.9% -3.37% $535.5M /adam-vs-trtx →
UHT
Universal Health Realty Income Trust
C- 61/100 29.9x — 18.8% -1.78% $539.1M /uht-vs-trtx →
OLP
One Liberty Properties Inc.
D+ 58/100 19.3x — 13.3% -1.35% $485.2M /olp-vs-trtx →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001630472 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.85B (+18.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.57B , and +252.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $60.3M, operating cash flow of $90.4M, and free cash flow of $90.4M (-19.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TRTX closed FY2025 with $4.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.85B $60.3M $90.4M $90.4M $4.41B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.57B $74.3M $112.1M $112.1M $3.73B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $524.8M -$116.6M $80.1M $80.1M — —

3. TRTX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TRTX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (NYSE: TRTX) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 54/100 at a spot price of $6.81 (-0.29% 1D, market cap $517.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 7/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 16/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, TRTX ranks #558 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TRTX compare to BDN and ADAM in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), TRTX carries a Roarable D+ (54/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 5.6%. By comparison, BDN (Brandywine Realty Trust) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.8%, cap $518.6M) and ADAM (Adamas Trust Inc.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E 4.4x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $535.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, ADAM leads on earnings multiple (4.4x) while UHT leads on capital efficiency (18.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TRTX?

Per TRTX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001630472), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. generated $1.85B in revenue (+18.1% YoY), $60.3M in net income, and $90.4M in free cash flow against $4.41B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TRTX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TRTX last traded at $6.81 (-0.29% on volume of 2,140,364 shares), positioning the stock +1.64% above its 50-day simple moving average ($6.70) and -14.45% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.96). Across its 52-week range of $5.60 to $9.35, TRTX sits at the 32.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 65.1 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.4% ($6.31 to $7.31).

Direct Sub-Reports: TRTX RQD Cockpit TRTX 12M Forecast TRTX Earnings & Move TRTX Dividends & DRIP TRTX Insiders & 13F TRTX Whale Options TRTX Profit Sankey TRTX News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 54/100 (D+) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TRTX — TPG RE Finance Trust Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 54/100, corresponding to a D+ letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $6.81 (-0.29% 1D, market capitalization $517.9M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (11/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 5.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 18.56%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (7/20) + Insider Conviction (16/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (7/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. Is a NYSE-listed issuer in the Financials sector, within the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, with a market capitalization of $0.5B per the company profile. The profile does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model..

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) reported $1.85B in annual revenue (up from $1.57B in FY2024, +18.1% YoY) and $60.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($524.8M revenue, -$116.6M net income) through FY2025, TRTX scaled operating cash flow to $90.4M and free cash flow to $90.4M, backed by $4.41B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D+ • RQD 54/100): Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. Free cash flow yield of 18.56% and institutional whale pillar of 7/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 11/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 7/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $5.60 – $9.35 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity. Investors must weigh 8.1x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Real Estate Investment Trusts (Financials), TRTX carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of —.

  • Key Question #1: Can TRTX sustain or expand its — operating margin and 5.6% ROIC against Real Estate Investment Trusts peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.85B and free cash flow of $90.4M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TRTX's 7.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TRTX Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for TPG RE Finance Trust Inc. (TRTX) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TRTX Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TRTX Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $6.81?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TRTX 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TRTX:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $8.32 (+28.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The 18.56% FCF yield and a 16/20 insider-conviction pillar suggest cash generation and insider activity are running ahead of the stock'

Picked up a starter position in TRTX in my $100K Virtual Cash book at $6.50. The 18.56% FCF yield and a 16/20 insider-conviction pillar suggest cash generation and insider activity are running ahead of the stock's 8.1x trailing P/E.. Trading inside a $5.60–$9.35 52-week range with 18.56% FCF yield gives solid downside support if Real Estate Investment Trusts multiples expand this quarter.

RetailWhale_TX 🐂 BULL

Both sides have a point here — TRTX's 13/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

MU MultipleCompression RQD DEBATE OPENER • Valuation Discipline 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $5.59 (-14.0%)
Spot @ $6.50

A 5/20 whale-flow pillar, 6/20 macro-fit pillar, 5.6% ROIC, and Piotroski F of 4/9 indicate weak institutional support and fundamental

Fading this rally in TRTX at $6.50. A 5/20 whale-flow pillar, 6/20 macro-fit pillar, 5.6% ROIC, and Piotroski F of 4/9 indicate weak institutional support and fundamental quality.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $6.50 (52-wk range $5.60–$9.35), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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