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Why TVRD Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$0.81 +1.58% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.81

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $10.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TVRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $0.81 (+1.58% 1D, market cap $10.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TVRD compare to GDTC and GTBP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GDTC (CytoMed Therapeutics Limited) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.9M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TVRD?
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Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $74.9M in revenue (+949.4% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.81 (+0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510032
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.1% Base Target
$6 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE TVRD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TVRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TVRD SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$1.04-4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$0.99-12.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$0.87-6.9% Next Q
Current
32
Grade E$0.81-9.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TVRD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TVRD currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.34) and Max Pain ($0.85) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TVRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TVRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why TVRD Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) advanced +1.58% to $0.81, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.77 – $5.69). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.77 – $5.69) with RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.81 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live TVRD Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TVRD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TVRD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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TVRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -77.12%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $0.86H $0.86L $0.79C $0.81VOL 154.9K
RES: $1.04SUP: $0.75SMA50: $1.34SMA200: $2.72
$12.90$9.62$6.33$3.04$-0.25RES $1.04SUP $0.75$0.812026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TVRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TVRD Butterfly Map → + Track TVRD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +949.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TVRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TVRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TVRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TVRD)

Health Care Rank #740 of 1015 ⚔️ GDTC vs TVRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TVRD vs. GDTC, GTBP, LSTA, PHIO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1015 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) ranks #740 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #888 by equity capitalization ($10.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TVRD leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TVRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. GDTC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with TVRD at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TVRD ACTIVE
Tvardi Therapeutics Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% +1.58% $10.6M Benchmark Subject
GDTC
CytoMed Therapeutics Limited
D+ 52/100 — — — -0.98% $10.9M /gdtc-vs-tvrd →
GTBP
GT Biopharma Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -3.57% $11.0M /gtbp-vs-tvrd →
LSTA
Lisata Therapeutics Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% -0.98% $11.0M /lsta-vs-tvrd →
PHIO
Phio Pharmaceuticals Corp.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% +2.33% $10.0M /phio-vs-tvrd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001346830 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) reported GAAP revenue of $74.9M (+949.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.1M , and +257.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.2M, operating cash flow of -$23.5M, and free cash flow of -$23.5M (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TVRD closed FY2025 with $32.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $74.9M -$18.2M -$23.5M -$23.5M $32.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.1M -$29.4M -$18.3M -$19.4M $35.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $21.0M -$11.8M -$92.1M -$92.1M — —

3. TVRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TVRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $0.81 (+1.58% 1D, market cap $10.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 5/20. Across 1015 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #740 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TVRD compare to GDTC and GTBP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GDTC (CytoMed Therapeutics Limited) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.9M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TVRD?

Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $74.9M in revenue (+949.4% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TVRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TVRD last traded at $0.81 (+1.58% on volume of 94,916 shares), positioning the stock -39.55% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.34) and -70.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.72). Across its 52-week range of $0.77 to $5.69, TVRD sits at the 0.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.91).

Direct Sub-Reports: TVRD RQD Cockpit TVRD 12M Forecast TVRD Earnings & Move TVRD Dividends & DRIP TVRD Insiders & 13F TVRD Whale Options TVRD Profit Sankey TVRD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 32/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

TVRD — Tvardi Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 32/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $0.81 (+1.58% 1D, market capitalization $10.6M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (4/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (5/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry. The FY 2024 and FY 2023 revenue figures reported in the SEC financials indicate that it has recorded revenue in prior periods, but the source does not identify the source of that revenue. The FY 2025 revenue is reported as —.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) reported $74.9M in annual revenue (up from $7.1M in FY2024, +949.4% YoY) and -$18.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($21.0M revenue, -$11.8M net income) through FY2025, TVRD scaled operating cash flow to -$23.5M and free cash flow to -$23.5M, backed by $32.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 32/100): Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $0.77 – $5.69 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and second-order bottlenecks are therefore — The sector is listed as Health Care, Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations, but no linkage to other tickers is provided.

  • Key Question #1: Can TVRD sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $74.9M and free cash flow of -$23.5M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is TVRD's equity valuation to Health Care capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

TVRD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TVRD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TVRD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.81?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TVRD 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TVRD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
MA MacroHawk_NYC RQD DEBATE OPENER • Cross-Asset Macro Desk 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.03 (+30.4%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Chardan initiated coverage with a buy rating on the STAT3 platform, and a news wire report ties a 10% gain to upcoming liver cancer tri

Don't sleep on TVRD's setup in Health Care. Chardan initiated coverage with a buy rating on the STAT3 platform, and a news wire report ties a 10% gain to upcoming liver cancer trial data.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (32/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

ArenaChamp_24 🐂 BULL

@MacroHawk_NYC Agree on the RQD 32/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $0.79 and keeping dry powder in case we test $0.73.

CR CreditSpread_Watch RQD DEBATE OPENER • Balance Sheet Analyst 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.66 (-16.5%)
Spot @ $0.79

The company is burning cash with negative free cash flow of -$23.5M in FY 2025 against cash of $20.7M, and its RQD score is 32 with an

I respect the product at Tvardi Therapeutics Inc., but the stock at $0.79 is a different story. The company is burning cash with negative free cash flow of -$23.5M in FY 2025 against cash of $20.7M, and its RQD score is 32 with an E grade.. FCF yield is 0.0% and RQD sits at 32/100 (E) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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