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Stock Ratings / Health Care / TVRD / options
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Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$0.79 -8.13% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.78

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $10.6M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on TVRD Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is TVRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $0.79 (-8.13% 1D, market cap $10.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #741 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does TVRD compare to GDTC and GTBP in the Health Care sector?
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Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GDTC (CytoMed Therapeutics Limited) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.9M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TVRD?
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Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $0.78 (-1.65%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510032
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (4)Whales (3)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (5)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.4% Base Target
$6 Bull$1 Base$1 Bear
📬 FREE TVRD RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TVRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY TVRD SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (31% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 31 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-16 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
40
Grade D$1.04-4.8% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
37
Grade E$0.99-12.1% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$0.87-9.2% Next Q
Current
32
Grade E$0.79-9.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TVRD Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TVRD currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($1.34) and Max Pain ($0.83) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $5.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TVRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “TVRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±12.5%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (TVRD)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for TVRD.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TVRD)

  • ✓Walkthrough of TVRD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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TVRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -77.68%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-03O $0.86H $0.86L $0.79C $0.79VOL 154.9K
RES: $1.04SUP: $0.75SMA50: $1.34SMA200: $2.72
$12.90$9.62$6.33$3.04$-0.25RES $1.04SUP $0.75$0.792026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TVRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TVRD Butterfly Map → + Track TVRD →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TVRD today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TVRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TVRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TVRD)

Health Care Rank #741 of 1016 ⚔️ GDTC vs TVRD Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TVRD vs. GDTC, GTBP, LSTA, PHIO)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) ranks #741 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #889 by equity capitalization ($10.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TVRD leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TVRD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. GDTC currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 52/100 (D+) compared with TVRD at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
TVRD ACTIVE
Tvardi Therapeutics Inc.
E 32/100 — — -35.0% -8.13% $10.6M Benchmark Subject
GDTC
CytoMed Therapeutics Limited
D+ 52/100 — — — +2.02% $10.9M /gdtc-vs-tvrd →
GTBP
GT Biopharma Inc.
D- 36/100 — — -35.0% -5.00% $11.0M /gtbp-vs-tvrd →
LSTA
Lisata Therapeutics Inc.
E 29/100 — — -35.0% +0.99% $11.0M /lsta-vs-tvrd →
PHIO
Phio Pharmaceuticals Corp.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -0.30% $10.0M /phio-vs-tvrd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001346830

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $7.1M , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$18.2M, operating cash flow of -$23.5M, and free cash flow of -$23.5M (-21.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, TVRD closed FY2025 with $32.1M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $0 -$18.2M -$23.5M -$23.5M $32.1M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $7.1M -$29.4M -$18.3M -$19.4M $35.2M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $21.0M -$11.8M -$92.1M -$92.1M — —

3. TVRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TVRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ: TVRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $0.79 (-8.13% 1D, market cap $10.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TVRD ranks #741 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TVRD compare to GDTC and GTBP in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), TVRD carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, GDTC (CytoMed Therapeutics Limited) holds a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $10.9M) and GTBP (GT Biopharma Inc.) posts a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $11.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TVRD leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TVRD leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TVRD?

Per TVRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001346830), Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$18.2M in net income, and -$23.5M in free cash flow against $32.1M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TVRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TVRD last traded at $0.79 (-8.13% on volume of 154,892 shares), positioning the stock -41.04% below its 50-day simple moving average ($1.34) and -70.96% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.72). Across its 52-week range of $0.77 to $5.69, TVRD sits at the 0.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 31.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.89).

TVRD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is TVRD's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for TVRD.

Direct Sub-Reports: TVRD RQD Cockpit TVRD 12M Forecast TVRD Earnings & Move TVRD Dividends & DRIP TVRD Insiders & 13F TVRD Whale Options TVRD Profit Sankey TVRD News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 32/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

TVRD — Tvardi Therapeutics Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:51:28Z

Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Per the Roarable RQD rating, TVRD scores 32 out of 100, earning a letter grade of E and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are: Fundamental Cash Engine at 4/20 (ROIC -35%; FCF yield 0%), Whale 13F Flow at 3/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction at 5/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit at 10/20 (Beta 1.0; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet at 10/20 (Altman Z 2.5; Piotroski F 2/9; Debt/Equity 0.5). For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are the cash engine and the ownership/insider signals, which together indicate that the business is not currently generating returns on capital and that the flow of informed capital is not supportive. The forensic balance sheet pillar is middling rather than distressed, with an Altman Z of 2.5 and a weak Piotroski score of 2 of 9. Any upside case rests on a future catalyst rather than on current cash generation, which raises valuation risk. The low price of 0.86 and the 52-week range of $0.77 to $5.69 show a steep decline, so the market has already repriced the stock sharply; this is a descriptive fact, not evidence of a bottom.

Business

Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Health Care sector and the Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations industry, per the profile section. The source data does not describe its products, customers, or revenue model in detail. The FY 2024 and FY 2023 revenue figures reported in the SEC financials indicate that it has recorded revenue in prior periods, but the source does not identify the source of that revenue. The FY 2025 revenue is reported as $0.0M.

Financial Trend

PeriodRevenueOperating IncomeNet IncomeEPSFCFCashDebt
FY 2025$0.0M$-26.7M$-18.2MN/A$-23.5M$20.7MN/A
FY 2024$7.1M$-28.1M$-29.4MN/A$-19.4M$31.6MN/A
FY 2023$21.0M$-121.5M$-11.8MN/A$-92.1MN/AN/A

Per the SEC financials, the company reported operating losses in all three periods and negative free cash flow in each. Gross, operating, and net margins are each reported as 0% in the market data, and ROIC is -35%. Per the Roarable RQD rating, the Altman Z-Score is 2.5, the Piotroski F-Score is 2 of 9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. Cash declined from $31.6M in FY 2024 to $20.7M in FY 2025 per the SEC financials. The balance sheet posture therefore shows declining liquidity alongside continued cash burn.

Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis

  • Chardan initiated coverage with a buy rating on the STAT3 platform, per the news wire (Investing.com).
  • Yahoo Finance UK published a seasonal returns chart for TVRD (news wire).
  • A TradingView estimates page was published for TVRD (news wire).
  • A kalkine.ca report describes a 10% gain tied to upcoming liver cancer trial data (news wire, GREEN light, flagged as CATALYST).
  • An Investing.com report covers a 5% move in the stock (news wire).
  • TVRD is listed to participate in Chardan's 10th Annual Healthcare Conference, per GlobeNewswire.

Risk watch items: the cited catalyst is clinical trial data, which the source does not detail. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph reports no supply-chain links and no proprietary signals.

Open Questions

  • What is the nature and timing of the liver cancer trial data referenced in the news wire, and what would a positive or negative result mean for the company's financials?
  • What is the source of the revenue reported in FY 2023 and FY 2024, and why is FY 2025 revenue reported as $0.0M?
  • What are the EPS, debt balance, and cash runway figures, given that EPS and Debt are reported as N/A for all periods?
  • What is the company's financing plan, given cash of $20.7M against a FY 2025 free cash outflow of $23.5M?
  • Why are P/E, EV/EBITDA, and forward estimates unavailable, and how does the market value the company without them?

TVRD Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. (TVRD) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to TVRD Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

TVRD Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $0.79?

🐂 33% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON TVRD 🐻 67% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on TVRD:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
RO RoarDesk_Moderator Roarable Research Desk 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.76 (-11.6%)
📌 Pinned Debate

🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is TVRD (E • RQD 32/100) a Buy at $0.86?

Welcome to the TVRD (Tvardi Therapeutics Inc.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 32/100 (Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid) in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on macro rate sensitivity and margin execution. Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.

RE RedlineAuditor Forensic Accounting Watch 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $0.66 (-23.3%)
Spot @ $0.86

Pump the brakes on TVRD — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds

Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on TVRD, but look at what you are paying: current EV/EBITDA multiples with tightening sector spreads. Unless Tvardi Therapeutics Inc. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.

CA CashFlowKing Verified K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $1.04 (+20.9%)
Spot @ $0.86

TVRD cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here

Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on TVRD, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $0.86 (52-wk range $0.77 - $5.69), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.

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