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United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$57.08 +0.44% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.26

United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 13% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.47B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on UFCS Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UFCS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, United Fire Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $57.08 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UFCS ranks #86 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UFCS compare to SAFT and UVE in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), UFCS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, SAFT (Safety Insurance Group Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.53B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UFCS?
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Per UFCS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101199), United Fire Group Inc. generated $1.39B in revenue (+10.6% YoY), $118.2M in net income, and $269.7M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $57.26 (+0.32%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 19.5% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-
025507510071
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw B · Rk C+
Cash (12)Whales (15)SEC (13)Macro (14)CEO (17)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target
$71 Bull$60 Base$47 Bear
📬 FREE UFCS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UFCS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UFCS SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+15/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.6% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 8 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
63
Grade C+$55.48+3.3% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
66
Grade B-$57.31-1.7% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
68
Grade B-$56.32+1.3% Next Q
Current
71
Grade B-$57.08+6.8% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C+ (63) → B- (71)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the UFCS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, UFCS faces multiple-compression risk if 12.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($55.23) or 200D SMA ($46.93) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($60.42) toward Bear Floor ($46.81).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UFCS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UFCS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your UFCS Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $57.08: 175.2 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $46.81
$8,201
$-1,799 (-18.0%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $60.42
$10,585
+$585 (+5.9%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $71.30
$12,491
+$2,491 (+24.9%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskOUTPERFORM$6374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadBUY$6769%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchHOLD$5458%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (UFCS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena
UFCS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +43.24%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-11-04O $56.83H $57.08L $56.83C $57.08VOL 127.6K
RES: $58.59SUP: $52.61SMA50: $55.23SMA200: $46.93
$59.85$53.00$46.14$39.29$32.43RES $58.59SUP $52.61$57.082026-05-052026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-04
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UFCS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UFCS Butterfly Map → + Track UFCS →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
3.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +10.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UFCS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UFCS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UFCS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UFCS)

Financials Rank #86 of 1097 ⚔️ SAFT vs UFCS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (UFCS vs. SAFT, UVE, ASIC, BOW)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) ranks #86 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #492 by equity capitalization ($1.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, UVE leads on earnings valuation at 7.2x trailing P/E, while UVE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.2% ROIC and — gross margin. SAFT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with UFCS at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UFCS ACTIVE
United Fire Group Inc.
B- 71/100 12.4x — 12.6% +0.44% $1.47B Benchmark Subject
SAFT
Safety Insurance Group Inc.
B 74/100 15.4x — 11.1% +0.33% $1.53B /saft-vs-ufcs →
UVE
UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC
B 74/100 7.2x — 33.2% +1.09% $1.36B /uve-vs-ufcs →
ASIC
Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
C+ 66/100 15.8x — 12.0% +2.02% $1.16B /asic-vs-ufcs →
BOW
Bowhead Specialty Holdings Inc.
C 63/100 20.9x — 12.0% -0.23% $1.12B /bow-vs-ufcs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000101199 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) reported GAAP revenue of $1.39B (+10.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.25B , and +26.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $118.2M, operating cash flow of $269.7M, and free cash flow of $269.7M (-20.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, UFCS closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $1.39B $118.2M $269.7M $269.7M $3.84B —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $1.25B $31.4M $340.3M $340.3M $3.49B —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.10B -$29.7M $171.7M $171.7M — —

3. UFCS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UFCS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, United Fire Group Inc. (NASDAQ: UFCS) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $57.08 (+0.44% 1D, market cap $1.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 15/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 14/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 17/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, UFCS ranks #86 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UFCS compare to SAFT and UVE in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), UFCS carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.6%. By comparison, SAFT (Safety Insurance Group Inc.) holds a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 15.4x, ROIC 11.1%, cap $1.53B) and UVE (UNIVERSAL INSURANCE HOLDINGS INC) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 33.2%, cap $1.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, UVE leads on earnings multiple (7.2x) while UVE leads on capital efficiency (33.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UFCS?

Per UFCS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000101199), United Fire Group Inc. generated $1.39B in revenue (+10.6% YoY), $118.2M in net income, and $269.7M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UFCS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UFCS last traded at $57.08 (+0.44% on volume of 127,554 shares), positioning the stock +3.35% above its 50-day simple moving average ($55.23) and +21.63% above its 200-day simple moving average ($46.93). Across its 52-week range of $30.00 to $58.20, UFCS sits at the 96.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 57.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($54.45 to $59.71).

Direct Sub-Reports: UFCS RQD Cockpit UFCS 12M Forecast UFCS Earnings & Move UFCS Dividends & DRIP UFCS Insiders & 13F UFCS Whale Options UFCS Profit Sankey UFCS News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 71/100 (B-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UFCS — United Fire Group Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 71/100, corresponding to a B- letter grade (Roarable Buy) at a spot price of $57.08 (+0.44% 1D, market capitalization $1.47B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of 12.6%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of 18.41%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (15/20) + Insider Conviction (17/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (14/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (13/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

United Fire Group Inc. Is a NASDAQ-listed issuer classified in the Financials sector and the Property-Casualty Insurers industry,. The profile identifies it as a publicly traded US company with a market capitalization of $1.5B. Revenue is reported in the financials section, but the source does not explain the mix of premium, investment, or fee income that generates it.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) reported $1.39B in annual revenue (up from $1.25B in FY2024, +10.6% YoY) and $118.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.10B revenue, -$29.7M net income) through FY2025, UFCS scaled operating cash flow to $269.7M and free cash flow to $269.7M, backed by $3.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (B- • RQD 71/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 15/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $30.00 – $58.20 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run. Investors must weigh 12.4x trailing P/E against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The source therefore provides no upstream or downstream dependency mapping, no sector correlation data beyond the Financials / Property-Casualty Insurers classification, and no identified 2nd-order bottlenecks.

  • Key Question #1: Can UFCS sustain or expand its — operating margin and 12.6% ROIC against Property-Casualty Insurers peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $1.39B and free cash flow of $269.7M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is UFCS's 11.5x forward P/E multiple to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

UFCS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for United Fire Group Inc. (UFCS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UFCS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UFCS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $57.08?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UFCS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UFCS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
DE DeltaGamma_99 RQD DEBATE OPENER • Options Flow Specialist 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $67.06 (+18.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Insider Conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a 12.4 TTM P/E with an 18.41% FCF yield, with reported net income rising to $11

Here is why I am bullish on UFCS here at $56.83: Insider Conviction scores 17/20 and the stock trades at a 12.4 TTM P/E with an 18.41% FCF yield, with reported net income rising to $118.2M in FY 2025.. Compare UFCS's 0.0% operating margin and 12.6% ROIC against the rest of Property-Casualty Insurers. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $53.99 are getting bought.

EarningsSniper 🐂 BULL

@SkepticalCFA Shorting a 15/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $56.83 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Financials.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER • Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $42.62 (-25.0%)
Spot @ $56.83

Operating income is reported as $0.0M in every period and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 12/20, while headlines questio

I respect the product at United Fire Group Inc., but the stock at $56.83 is a different story. Operating income is reported as $0.0M in every period and the Fundamental Cash Engine pillar scores only 12/20, while headlines question whether the stock is fully priced.. FCF yield is 18.41% and RQD sits at 71/100 (B-) — why pay up here when you can wait for next quarter's numbers?

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