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Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / UP / forecast
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Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$3.31 +3.76% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.33

Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 18/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $115.7M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: UP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $3.31 (+3.76% 1D, market cap $115.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UP ranks #995 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UP compare to FLYX and SRFM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), UP carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FLYX (flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $121.6M) and SRFM (Surf Air Mobility Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $100.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UP?
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Per UP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819516), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) generated $736.5M in revenue (-7.0% YoY), -$294.2M in net income, and -$259.9M in free cash flow against $968.8M in total assets and $316.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.33 (+0.49%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (18/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510018
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-18.1% Base Target
$31 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE UP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (18/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UP SCORES 18/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
26
Grade E$3.43-6.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
23
Grade E$3.20-5.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
21
Grade E$3.01+10% Next Q
Current
18
Grade E$3.31-12.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (26) → E (18)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UP currently carries a cautious 18/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.70) and Max Pain ($3.48) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $30.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 18%NO 82%Trade / Inspect Odds →
INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your UP Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $3.31: 3021.1 sh
$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000
12M Bear Case FloorTarget $2.11
$6,375
$-3,625 (-36.3%)
12M Consensus BaseTarget $2.71
$8,187
$-1,813 (-18.1%)
12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $30.81
$93,082
+$83,082 (+830.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100
● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9
Wall Street FirmStance12M Target1Y AccuracyTrack Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity DeskHOLD$374%A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage LeadUNDERPERFORM$2969%B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap ResearchSELL$258%C
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of UP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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UP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.33%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $3.19H $3.31L $3.19C $3.31VOL 55.4K
RES: $3.26SUP: $1.08SMA50: $3.70SMA200: $7.55
$23.64$18.00$12.36$6.72$1.08RES $3.26SUP $1.08$3.312026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 UP Butterfly Map → + Track UP →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #995 of 1009 ⚔️ FLYX vs UP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UP vs. FLYX, SRFM, PAL, TOUR)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) ranks #995 by composite RQD confidence (18/100, grade E) and #739 by equity capitalization ($115.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TOUR leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while TOUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.1% ROIC and 58.0% gross margin. TOUR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 39/100 (D-) compared with UP at 18/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UP ACTIVE
Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 — 10.0% -35.0% +3.76% $115.7M Benchmark Subject
FLYX
flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)
E 26/100 — 15.0% -35.0% -10.43% $121.6M /flyx-vs-up →
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -6.09% $100.3M /srfm-vs-up →
PAL
Proficient Auto Logistics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -11.6% +13.19% $73.4M /pal-vs-up →
TOUR
Tuniu Corporation
D- 39/100 11.5x 58.0% 1.1% +1.91% $51.2M /tour-vs-up →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819516 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) reported GAAP revenue of $736.5M (-7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $792.1M , and -41.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$294.2M, operating cash flow of -$166.3M, and free cash flow of -$259.9M (-29.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, UP closed FY2025 with $968.8M in total assets against $316.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $736.5M -$294.2M -$166.3M -$259.9M $968.8M $316.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $792.1M -$339.6M -$77.9M -$200.7M $1.16B $376.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.25B -$487.4M -$665.3M -$665.3M — —

3. UP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: UP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $3.31 (+3.76% 1D, market cap $115.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1009 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UP ranks #995 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UP compare to FLYX and SRFM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), UP carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FLYX (flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $121.6M) and SRFM (Surf Air Mobility Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $100.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UP?

Per UP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819516), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) generated $736.5M in revenue (-7.0% YoY), -$294.2M in net income, and -$259.9M in free cash flow against $968.8M in total assets and $316.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UP last traded at $3.31 (+3.76% on volume of 79,862 shares), positioning the stock -10.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.70) and -56.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.55). Across its 52-week range of $2.83 to $29.34, UP sits at the 1.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.90 to $3.72).

Direct Sub-Reports: UP RQD Cockpit UP 12M Forecast UP Earnings & Move UP Dividends & DRIP UP Insiders & 13F UP Whale Options UP Profit Sankey UP News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 18/100 (E) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

UP — Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 18/100, corresponding to a E letter grade (Roarable Strong Sell) at a spot price of $3.31 (+3.76% 1D, market capitalization $115.7M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (3/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of 10.0%, operating margin of -27.6%, and free cash flow yield of —.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (3/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (5/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 0.20, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Transportation Services industry,. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists the supply chain as NONE. Gross margin is 10% per the market data.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) reported $736.5M in annual revenue (up from $792.1M in FY2024, -7.0% YoY) and -$294.2M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($1.25B revenue, -$487.4M net income) through FY2025, UP scaled operating cash flow to -$166.3M and free cash flow to -$259.9M, backed by $968.8M in total assets against $316.4M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (E • RQD 18/100): Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of — and institutional whale pillar of 3/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 3/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $2.83 – $29.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -27.6% operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Transportation Services (Consumer Discretionary), UP carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 10.0%.

  • Key Question #1: Can UP sustain or expand its -27.6% operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Transportation Services peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $736.5M and free cash flow of -$259.9M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $316.4M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is UP's equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

UP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull RQD DEBATE OPENER • Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.18 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock is up 3.91% on the day with a 52-week low of $2.83 and a market cap of $115.7M, so it trades at a low absolute price level.

Don't sleep on UP's setup in Consumer Discretionary. The stock is up 3.91% on the day with a 52-week low of $2.83 and a market cap of $115.7M, so it trades at a low absolute price level.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (18/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $3.19 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.55 (-20.1%)
Spot @ $3.19

ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and FCF of -$259.9M in FY 2025 indicate severe forensic and cash-generation risk.

Fading this rally in UP at $3.19. ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and FCF of -$259.9M in FY 2025 indicate severe forensic and cash-generation risk.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $3.19 (52-wk range $2.83–$29.34), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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