Why UP Stock surged +3.76% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$3.31 +3.76% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.33

Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 18/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $115.7M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is UP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-03, Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: UP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $3.31 (+3.76% 1D, market cap $115.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UP ranks #997 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does UP compare to FLYX and SRFM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
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Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), UP carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FLYX (flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $121.6M) and SRFM (Surf Air Mobility Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $100.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UP?
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Per UP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819516), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) generated $736.5M in revenue (-7.0% YoY), -$294.2M in net income, and -$259.9M in free cash flow against $968.8M in total assets and $316.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.33 (+0.49%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (18/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-12.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
025507510018
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Cash (3)Whales (3)SEC (5)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-18.1% Base Target
$31 Bull$3 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE UP RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for UP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (18/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY UP SCORES 18/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+6/20 pts (33% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+5/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
26
Grade E$3.43-6.7% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
23
Grade E$3.20-5.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
21
Grade E$3.01+10% Next Q
Current
18
Grade E$3.31-12.2% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: E (26) → E (18)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a UP Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While UP currently carries a cautious 18/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.70) and Max Pain ($3.48) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $30.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $UP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “UP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why UP Stock surged +3.76% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) surged +3.76% to $3.31, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2.83 – $29.34). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2.83 – $29.34) with RSI-14 at 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $3.31 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 10% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live UP Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRETradingKey • 1d ago
52-Week High Stocks in the U.S. Today

TradingKey report covering Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring UP)

  • ✓Walkthrough of UP's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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UP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -34.33%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $3.19H $3.31L $3.19C $3.31VOL 55.4K
RES: $3.26SUP: $1.08SMA50: $3.70SMA200: $7.55
$23.64$18.00$12.36$6.72$1.08RES $3.26SUP $1.08$3.312026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

UP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on UP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for UP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for UP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (UP)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #997 of 1011 ⚔️ FLYX vs UP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (UP vs. FLYX, SRFM, PAL, TOUR)

Industry: Transportation Services (22 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) ranks #997 by composite RQD confidence (18/100, grade E) and #741 by equity capitalization ($115.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TOUR leads on earnings valuation at 11.5x trailing P/E, while TOUR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 1.1% ROIC and 58.0% gross margin. TOUR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 39/100 (D-) compared with UP at 18/100 (E).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
UP ACTIVE
Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A)
E 18/100 — 10.0% -35.0% +3.76% $115.7M Benchmark Subject
FLYX
flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)
E 26/100 — 15.0% -35.0% -10.43% $121.6M /flyx-vs-up →
SRFM
Surf Air Mobility Inc.
D- 37/100 — — -35.0% -6.09% $100.3M /srfm-vs-up →
PAL
Proficient Auto Logistics Inc.
E 34/100 — — -11.6% +13.19% $73.4M /pal-vs-up →
TOUR
Tuniu Corporation
D- 39/100 11.5x 58.0% 1.1% +1.91% $51.2M /tour-vs-up →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001819516

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) reported GAAP revenue of $736.5M (-7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $792.1M , and -41.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$294.2M, operating cash flow of -$166.3M, and free cash flow of -$259.9M (-29.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, UP closed FY2025 with $968.8M in total assets against $316.4M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $736.5M -$294.2M -$166.3M -$259.9M $968.8M $316.4M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $792.1M -$339.6M -$77.9M -$200.7M $1.16B $376.3M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $1.25B -$487.4M -$665.3M -$665.3M — —

3. UP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is UP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: UP) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 18/100 at a spot price of $3.31 (+3.76% 1D, market cap $115.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 3/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, UP ranks #997 in composite RQD confidence.

How does UP compare to FLYX and SRFM in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Transportation Services), UP carries a Roarable E (18/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 10.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, FLYX (flyExclusive Inc. (Class A)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $121.6M) and SRFM (Surf Air Mobility Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $100.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, TOUR leads on earnings multiple (11.5x) while TOUR leads on capital efficiency (1.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for UP?

Per UP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001819516), Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) generated $736.5M in revenue (-7.0% YoY), -$294.2M in net income, and -$259.9M in free cash flow against $968.8M in total assets and $316.4M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is UP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

UP last traded at $3.31 (+3.76% on volume of 79,862 shares), positioning the stock -10.54% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.70) and -56.16% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.55). Across its 52-week range of $2.83 to $29.34, UP sits at the 1.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.90 to $3.72).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 18/100 (E) ✓ STAGE-C NUMBER FIREWALL VERIFIED

UP — Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A): What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Engine: anthropic/claude-haiku-5.5
As of: 2026-11-02T15:43:33Z

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

UP carries an RQD Score of 18 out of 100, a letter grade of E, and the verdict "Roarable Strong Sell — Forensic Risk / Avoid." The five pillars are:

  • Fundamental Cash Engine: 1 / 20. The pillar reflects ROIC of -35% and an FCF yield of 0%. For a prospective investor, this means the business is not currently generating returns on invested capital or free cash flow to shareholders, so there is no cash-based valuation floor to anchor the price.
  • Whale 13F Flow: 3 / 20. The pillar is described as reflecting institutional accumulation and options positioning.
  • Insider Conviction: 3 / 20. The pillar reflects SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow.
  • Macro Regime Fit: 6 / 20. Beta is 1.0 per the market data, and the pillar notes sector sensitivity. For a prospective investor, the stock moves in line with the broader market on average, but the pillar score indicates limited regime-related support.
  • Forensic Balance Sheet: 5 / 20. Altman Z is 0.2, Piotroski F is 2/9, and Debt/Equity is 0.5. A low Altman Z and low Piotroski score point to elevated financial distress and weak fundamental quality, which is the core forensic risk concern.

Taken together, the pillars indicate that the valuation tradeoff is unfavorable: the stock trades at a $115.7M market capitalization despite negative operating, net, and free-cash-flow results in the SEC financials. Upside would require a reversal in cash generation that the current data does not show. This analysis is educational and not personalized financial advice.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Consumer Discretionary sector, Transportation Services industry,. The Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph lists the supply chain as NONE. Gross margin is 10% per the market data.

Revenue declined from $1.25B in FY 2023 to $792.1M in FY 2024 and $736.5M in FY 2025, while every reported period shows negative operating and net income. Net margin is -39.9% and operating margin is -27.6% per the market data. ROIC is -35%, and the Roarable RQD rating assigns an Altman Z-Score of 0.2 and a Piotroski F-Score of 2/9. Cash declined from $216.4M to $133.9M and debt declined from $376.3M to $316.4M over FY 2024 to FY 2025, with Debt/Equity at 0.5 per the rating.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case: The stock is up 3.91% on the day with a 52-week low of $2.83 and a market cap of $115.7M, so it trades at a low absolute price level. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 1/20 (ROIC -35.0%, FCF yield —) and Institutional Whale Flow at 3/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the top of the $2.83 – $29.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case: ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and FCF of -$259.9M in FY 2025 indicate severe forensic and cash-generation risk. Investors must weigh current valuation against -27.6% operating margins and a 1.00 macro beta if sector demand softens.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Operating in Transportation Services (Consumer Discretionary), UP carries a macro regime beta of 1.00 and gross margin of 10.0%.

  • Key Question #1: What drove the decline in cash from $216.4M to $133.9M and the reduction in debt from $376.3M to $316.4M, and is the balance sheet trend expected to continue?
  • Key Question #2: Will free cash flow conversion (— FCF yield) strengthen balance-sheet liquidity (Altman Z-Score 0.20) and support upside toward the $29.34 52-week high?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is UP's 10.0% gross margin and equity valuation to Consumer Discretionary demand cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00)?

UP Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Wheels Up Experience Inc. (Class A) (UP) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to UP Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

UP Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $3.31?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON UP 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on UP:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
SI SiliconVal_Bull Growth & Tech Investor 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $4.18 (+31.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

The stock is up 3.91% on the day with a 52-week low of $2.83 and a market cap of $115.7M, so it trades at a low absolute price level.

Don't sleep on UP's setup in Consumer Discretionary. The stock is up 3.91% on the day with a 52-week low of $2.83 and a market cap of $115.7M, so it trades at a low absolute price level.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (18/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

VolSurface_Trader 🐂 BULL

@ShortSeller_Dan Shorting a 3/20 institutional whale-flow stock at $3.19 is dangerous when funds are rotating into Consumer Discretionary.

SH ShortSeller_Dan Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $2.55 (-20.1%)
Spot @ $3.19

ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and FCF of -$259.9M in FY 2025 indicate severe forensic and cash-generation risk.

Fading this rally in UP at $3.19. ROIC of -35%, an Altman Z-Score of 0.2, and FCF of -$259.9M in FY 2025 indicate severe forensic and cash-generation risk.. With a beta of 1.0 and the stock sitting at $3.19 (52-wk range $2.83–$29.34), the easy multiple expansion is already priced in.

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