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Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$117.50 +1.74% NYSE β€’ Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $117.64

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- β€’ RED ALERT Cap $3.97B
πŸ“€ Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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πŸ€– Mara Quenwick β€’ AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VAC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
β–Ό

As of 2026-11-03, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE: VAC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $117.50 (+1.74% 1D, market cap $3.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, VAC ranks #934 in composite RQD confidence.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Ellis Vennor β€’ AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VAC compare to MRP and CURB in the Financials sector?
β–Ό

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), VAC carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -15.5%. By comparison, MRP (Millrose Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $4.25B) and CURB (Curbline Properties Corp.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 87.5x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $3.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRP leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while CIGI leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– Gideon Ashmere β€’ AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAC?
β–Ό

Per VAC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001524358), Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation generated $4.67B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$308.0M in net income, and -$29.0M in free cash flow against $9.76B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

βœ“ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
πŸ€– AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists β€” not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
πŸ›‘οΈ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $117.64 (+0.12%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)βš™οΈ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) β€’ 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit β†’
πŸ“Š Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 Β· D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY β€’ 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record β†’
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT β€’ D-
025507510038
3-of-3 Quant Analysts Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) β€” not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw D- Β· Rk D-
Cash (5)Whales (16)SEC (8)Macro (6)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target
$138 Bull$107 Base$83 Bear
πŸ“¬ FREE VAC RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VAC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: Β±6.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
πŸ” WHY VAC SCORES 38/100 (D-) β€” TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
β–² #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (42% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (Β±6.9% realized swing band)

β–² #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) β€’ Piotroski F-Score 2/9

β–Ό #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

πŸ“ˆ PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 β†’ Q2 β†’ Q3 β†’ Current
Q1 (-3Q)
30
Grade E$108.54+4.4% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
33
Grade E$113.29-1.9% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
35
Grade E$111.09+5.8% Next Q
Current
38
Grade D-$117.50-7.8% Hist 90D Ξ±
Trajectory: E (30) β†’ D- (38)Full Audit β†’
βš”οΈ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

βš”οΈ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VAC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk β†’

While VAC currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($106.50) and Max Pain ($123.38) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $137.91.

πŸš€ Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VACβ€’ $2.4M Crowd Pool β€’ Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: β€œVAC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds β†’
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
β€” (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
Β±6.9%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VAC)

β€” (No Active Options Snapshot) β€” No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for VAC.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VAC)

  • βœ“Walkthrough of VAC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • βœ“3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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VAC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +67.36%β–² RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-03O $115.8H $117.5L $115.5C $117.5VOL 370.7K
RES: $112.3SUP: $99.84SMA50: $106.5SMA200: $86.87
$136.0$116.8$97.70$78.57$59.44RES $112.3SUP $99.84$117.52026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VAC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

πŸ¦‹ VAC Butterfly Map β†’ + Track VAC β†’
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +1.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VAC today. View full Setup Ledger β†’

πŸ¦‹ Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph β†’

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VAC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VAC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk β†’
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT β€’ SEC EDGAR XBRL Γ— RQD PEER BENCHMARK

πŸ“Š Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VAC)

Financials Rank #934 of 1097 βš”οΈ MRP vs VAC Full Matrix β†’

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (VAC vs. MRP, CURB, CIGI, VTMX)

Industry: Real Estate (54 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1097 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) ranks #934 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #314 by equity capitalization ($3.97B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MRP leads on earnings valuation at 11.4x trailing P/E, while CIGI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 22.1% ROIC and β€” gross margin. MRP currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 65/100 (C) compared with VAC at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VAC ACTIVE
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
D- 38/100 β€” β€” -15.5% +1.74% $3.97B Benchmark Subject
MRP
Millrose Properties Inc.
C 65/100 11.4x β€” 5.3% +4.64% $4.25B /mrp-vs-vac β†’
CURB
Curbline Properties Corp.
D+ 58/100 87.5x β€” 2.1% +1.44% $3.46B /curb-vs-vac β†’
CIGI
Colliers International Group Inc. Subordinate Voting Shares
C- 59/100 β€” β€” 22.1% +7.97% $4.94B /cigi-vs-vac β†’
VTMX
Corporacion Inmobiliaria Vesta S.A.B de C.V. each representing ten (10)
D+ 57/100 β€” β€” β€” +0.64% $3.19B /vtmx-vs-vac β†’

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K β€’ FILED 2025-12-31 β€’ CIK 0001524358 β†—

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) reported GAAP revenue of $4.67B (+1.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $4.63B , and +6.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$308.0M, operating cash flow of $28.0M, and free cash flow of -$29.0M (-119.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, VAC closed FY2025 with $9.76B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $4.67B -$308.0M $28.0M -$29.0M $9.76B β€”
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $4.63B $218.0M $205.0M $148.0M $9.81B β€”
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $4.41B $254.0M $232.0M $232.0M β€” β€”

3. VAC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

βœ“ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VAC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (NYSE: VAC) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $117.50 (+1.74% 1D, market cap $3.97B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 1097 tracked Financials issuers, VAC ranks #934 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VAC compare to MRP and CURB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Real Estate), VAC carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of β€”, and ROIC of -15.5%. By comparison, MRP (Millrose Properties Inc.) holds a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 11.4x, ROIC 5.3%, cap $4.25B) and CURB (Curbline Properties Corp.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 87.5x, ROIC 2.1%, cap $3.46B). Among the 5-stock peer group, MRP leads on earnings multiple (11.4x) while CIGI leads on capital efficiency (22.1% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VAC?

Per VAC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001524358), Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation generated $4.67B in revenue (+1.0% YoY), -$308.0M in net income, and -$29.0M in free cash flow against $9.76B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VAC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VAC last traded at $117.50 (+1.74% on volume of 528,964 shares), positioning the stock +10.33% above its 50-day simple moving average ($106.50) and +35.26% above its 200-day simple moving average ($86.87). Across its 52-week range of $44.58 to $131.34, VAC sits at the 84.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.3 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of Β±6.9% ($109.39 to $125.61).

Direct Sub-Reports: VAC RQD Cockpit VAC 12M Forecast VAC Earnings & Move VAC Dividends & DRIP VAC Insiders & 13F VAC Whale Options VAC Profit Sankey VAC News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF β€’ RQD 38/100 (D-) βœ“ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VAC β€” Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 38/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $117.50 (+1.74% 1D, market capitalization $3.97B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (5/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.5%, gross margin of β€”, operating margin of β€”, and free cash flow yield of -0.73%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (16/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (6/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (8/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation is a NYSE-listed company classified under the Financials sector and Real Estate industry. Reported revenue was $4.67B for FY 2025, indicating a sizable operating base.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) reported $4.67B in annual revenue (up from $4.63B in FY2024, +1.0% YoY) and -$308.0M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($4.41B revenue, $254.0M net income) through FY2025, VAC scaled operating cash flow to $28.0M and free cash flow to -$29.0M, backed by $9.76B in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • πŸ‚ Primary Bull Case (D- β€’ RQD 38/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of -0.73% and institutional whale pillar of 16/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 5/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 16/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $44.58 – $131.34 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against β€” operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

Upstream and downstream dependencies, sector correlations, and bottlenecks are β€” The only sector-level read-through in the news flow is the Royal Caribbean Q3 earnings item, which the source frames as related travel and leisure activity; its implications for VAC are not quantified in the source.

  • Key Question #1: Can VAC sustain or expand its β€” operating margin and -15.5% ROIC against Real Estate peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $4.67B and free cash flow of -$29.0M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VAC's equity valuation to Financials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VAC Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) β€’ Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

πŸ’¬ Jump to VAC Debate Forum (3) ↓
πŸ”₯ THE ROAR PIT β€’ LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VAC Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board β€” What's Your Call at $117.50?

πŸ‚ 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VAC 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VAC:
πŸ’‘ Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
BR BreakoutHunter RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Swing & Catalyst Trader πŸ‚ BULLISH 🎯 Target: $136.28 (+18.0%)
πŸ“Œ Pinned Debate

Institutional whale 13F flow scores 16 of 20, the strongest RQD pillar, indicating larger holders have been accumulating.

Here is why I am bullish on VAC here at $115.49: Institutional whale 13F flow scores 16 of 20, the strongest RQD pillar, indicating larger holders have been accumulating.. Compare VAC's 0.0% operating margin and -15.5% ROIC against the rest of Real Estate. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $109.72 are getting bought.

VolSurface_Trader πŸ‚ BULL

Both sides have a point here β€” VAC's 8/20 balance sheet score keeps downside contained, so the real swing factor next earnings call is backlog and FCF conversion.

SK SkepticalCFA RQD DEBATE OPENER β€’ Fundamental Contrarian 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $93.55 (-19.0%)
Spot @ $115.49

ROIC of -15.5% and FCF yield of -0.73% anchor the fundamental cash engine at only 5 of 20.

Careful chasing VAC at $115.49. ROIC of -15.5% and FCF yield of -0.73% anchor the fundamental cash engine at only 5 of 20.. Gross margin is 0.0%, but operating margin is 0.0%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $93.55 on multiple compression.

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