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Stock Ratings / Materials / VGZ / options
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Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$2.47 -0.80% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.46

Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $363.5M
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VGZ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Vista Gold Corp (NYSE: VGZ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $2.47 (-0.80% 1D, market cap $363.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, VGZ ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VGZ compare to URG and CMCL in the Materials sector?
▼

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), VGZ carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, URG (Ur Energy Inc (Canada)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $338.9M) and CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $391.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VGZ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VGZ?
▼

Per VGZ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000783324), Vista Gold Corp generated $26.0M in revenue (-11.8% YoY), -$7.5M in net income, and -$7.2M in free cash flow against $16.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.46 (-0.33%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (39/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
025507510039
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Cash (8)Whales (8)SEC (10)Macro (10)CEO (3)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.5% Base Target
$3 Bull$2 Base$2 Bear
📬 FREE VGZ RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VGZ)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±9.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (39/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VGZ SCORES 39/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (26% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 61% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
47
Grade D$2.59+5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
44
Grade D$2.72-4.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
42
Grade D$2.60-5% Next Q
Current
39
Grade D-$2.47-7.6% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: D (47) → D- (39)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VGZ Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While VGZ currently carries a cautious 39/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.51) and Max Pain ($2.59) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.29.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VGZ• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VGZ Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
YES 39%NO 61%Trade / Inspect Odds →
CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)
MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET
— (No Active Options Snapshot)
No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file
HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING
±9.2%
Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (VGZ)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for VGZ.

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VGZ)

  • ✓Walkthrough of VGZ's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
  • ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
  • ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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VGZ // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +17.62%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $2.58H $2.58L $2.47C $2.47VOL 3.40M
RES: $2.99SUP: $2.45SMA50: $2.51SMA200: $2.28
$2.99$2.58$2.18$1.77$1.36RES $2.99SUP $2.45$2.472026-05-042026-06-172026-08-042026-09-182026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VGZ Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 VGZ Butterfly Map → + Track VGZ →
Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -11.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VGZ today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VGZ. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VGZ today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VGZ)

Materials Rank #199 of 270 ⚔️ URG vs VGZ Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (VGZ vs. URG, CMCL, TMQ, VOXR)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) ranks #199 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #188 by equity capitalization ($363.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VGZ leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while TMQ leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -34.0% ROIC and — gross margin. VOXR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 46/100 (D) compared with VGZ at 39/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VGZ ACTIVE
Vista Gold Corp
D- 39/100 — — -35.0% -0.80% $363.5M Benchmark Subject
URG
Ur Energy Inc (Canada)
E 26/100 — 0.3% -35.0% -6.84% $338.9M /urg-vs-vgz →
CMCL
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc
D 45/100 — — — -1.18% $391.5M /cmcl-vs-vgz →
TMQ
Trilogy Metals Inc.
E 31/100 — — -34.0% -0.46% $397.2M /tmq-vs-vgz →
VOXR
Vox Royalty Corp.
D 46/100 — — — +1.97% $318.3M /voxr-vs-vgz →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000783324 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) reported GAAP revenue of $26.0M (-11.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $29.5M , and +37.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$7.5M, operating cash flow of -$6.6M, and free cash flow of -$7.2M (-18.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, VGZ closed FY2025 with $16.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $26.0M -$7.5M -$6.6M -$7.2M $16.3M —
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $29.5M $11.2M -$5.7M -$6.1M $19.0M —
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $18.9M -$6.6M -$5.9M -$5.9M — —

3. VGZ Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VGZ stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Vista Gold Corp (NYSE: VGZ) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $2.47 (-0.80% 1D, market cap $363.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 3/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, VGZ ranks #199 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VGZ compare to URG and CMCL in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), VGZ carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, URG (Ur Energy Inc (Canada)) holds a E grade (26/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $338.9M) and CMCL (Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc) posts a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $391.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VGZ leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while TMQ leads on capital efficiency (-34.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VGZ?

Per VGZ's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000783324), Vista Gold Corp generated $26.0M in revenue (-11.8% YoY), -$7.5M in net income, and -$7.2M in free cash flow against $16.3M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VGZ trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VGZ last traded at $2.47 (-0.80% on volume of 2,228,572 shares), positioning the stock -1.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.51) and +8.33% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.28). Across its 52-week range of $1.43 to $3.13, VGZ sits at the 61.2% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±9.2% ($2.24 to $2.70).

Direct Sub-Reports: VGZ RQD Cockpit VGZ 12M Forecast VGZ Earnings & Move VGZ Dividends & DRIP VGZ Insiders & 13F VGZ Whale Options VGZ Profit Sankey VGZ News & Why
ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 39/100 (D-) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VGZ — Vista Gold Corp: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 39/100, corresponding to a D- letter grade (Roarable Sell) at a spot price of $2.47 (-0.80% 1D, market capitalization $363.5M).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (8/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -35.0%, gross margin of —, operating margin of —, and free cash flow yield of -1.91%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (8/20) + Insider Conviction (3/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (10/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (10/20): Incorporates a 1.00x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of N/A, Piotroski F-Score of 2/9, and Debt/Equity of N/A.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Vista Gold Corp is listed on the NYSE and classified in the Materials sector and Precious Metals industry. The financials section reports revenue of — for each of FY 2023, FY 2024, and FY 2025, so the source does not show a revenue-generating operation during these periods.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) reported $26.0M in annual revenue (up from $29.5M in FY2024, -11.8% YoY) and -$7.5M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($18.9M revenue, -$6.6M net income) through FY2025, VGZ scaled operating cash flow to -$6.6M and free cash flow to -$7.2M, backed by $16.3M in total assets against $0 in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (D- • RQD 39/100): Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity. Free cash flow yield of -1.91% and institutional whale pillar of 8/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 8/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 8/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $1.43 – $3.13 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against — operating margins and a 1.00x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The only sector context is the classification of Materials and Precious Metals .

  • Key Question #1: Can VGZ sustain or expand its — operating margin and -35.0% ROIC against Precious Metals peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $26.0M and free cash flow of -$7.2M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $0 in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VGZ's equity valuation to Materials capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.00x)?

VGZ Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vista Gold Corp (VGZ) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VGZ Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VGZ Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $2.47?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VGZ 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VGZ:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
AL AlphaFlow_Cap RQD DEBATE OPENER • Verified $100K Arena Trader 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $3.26 (+30.9%)
📌 Pinned Debate

Institutional accumulation and options positioning (11/20 whale/13F flow pillar) is the strongest pillar in the rating and the main pot

Don't sleep on VGZ's setup in Materials. Institutional accumulation and options positioning (11/20 whale/13F flow pillar) is the strongest pillar in the rating and the main potential upside driver.. Beta of 1.0 means it moves fast when momentum turns, and the 5-pillar RQD gauge (39/100) backs up the fundamental quality.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@AlphaFlow_Cap Agree on the RQD 39/100 quality, though with 1.0 beta I'm scaling in with half-size at $2.49 and keeping dry powder in case we test $2.32.

SH ShortSeller_Dan RQD DEBATE OPENER • Forensic Short Bias 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $1.89 (-24.1%)
Spot @ $2.49

Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -1.91%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 indicate weak cash generation and balance sheet fragility

Here is the bear case nobody on the bull side wants to address on VGZ: Negative ROIC of -35%, FCF yield of -1.91%, and a Piotroski F-Score of 2 of 9 indicate weak cash generation and balance sheet fragility.. At current EV/EBITDA multiples, even a small guidance miss in Precious Metals triggers a 12-15% air pocket.

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