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Why VRNS Stock slipped -0.20% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

$48.75 -0.20% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $48.64

Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $5.61B
📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is VRNS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼

As of 2026-11-03, Varonis Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: VRNS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $48.75 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $5.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, VRNS ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does VRNS compare to TENB and ACIW in the Technology sector?
▼

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), VRNS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 78.8%, and ROIC of -15.3%. By comparison, TENB (Tenable Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.0%, cap $5.59B) and ACIW (ACI Worldwide Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 24.8x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $5.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIW leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while ACIW leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRNS?
▼

Per VRNS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001361113), Varonis Systems Inc. generated $623.5M in revenue (+13.2% YoY), -$129.3M in net income, and $134.8M in free cash flow against $1.79B in total assets and $419.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $48.64 (-0.23%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 21.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →
📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
025507510063
Quant Analyst Panel Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR RQD RADARRw C · Rk C-
Cash (12)Whales (17)SEC (12)Macro (12)CEO (10)
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
$59 Bull$50 Base$39 Bear
📬 FREE VRNS RATING-CHANGE & BRIEFING ALERTSManage / Unsubscribe
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for VRNS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±3.7%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY VRNS SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+17/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±3.7% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (19% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 21.6% FCF Margin ($134.8M FCF) & 78.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution10/20 pts (-10 pt drag)

Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 10 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)
55
Grade C$47.06+3.5% Next Q
Q2 (-2Q)
58
Grade C$48.69+0.4% Next Q
Q3 (-1Q)
60
Grade C$48.90-0.3% Next Q
Current
63
Grade C$48.75+0.9% Hist 90D α
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the VRNS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, VRNS faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($47.38) or 200D SMA ($35.72) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($49.85) toward Bear Floor ($38.88).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $VRNS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “VRNS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →

Why VRNS Stock slipped -0.20% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash

Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) slipped -0.20% to $48.75, trading at 95% of its 52-week range ($19.7 – $50.31). Solid 78.8% gross margin (-15% return on capital), mixed timing at current multiples—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

  • ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 95% of its 52-week range ($19.7 – $50.31) with RSI-14 at 54.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
  • ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±3.7% around $48.75 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
  • ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 78.8% gross margin and $134.8M annual free cash flow.
Live VRNS Headlines & Catalysts
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (VRNS Tape Review)

  • ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
  • ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
  • ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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VRNS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +77.85%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-11-03O $48.82H $48.85L $48.75C $48.75VOL 2.56M
RES: $51.63SUP: $47.78SMA50: $47.38SMA200: $35.72
$52.19$44.42$36.65$28.88$21.11RES $51.63SUP $47.78$48.752026-05-042026-06-182026-08-052026-09-212026-11-03
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

VRNS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

Share Count & Dilution Monitor

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle
19.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on VRNS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for VRNS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for VRNS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VRNS)

Technology Rank #167 of 715 ⚔️ TENB vs VRNS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (VRNS vs. TENB, ACIW, KVYO, OCTV)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 715 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) ranks #167 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #201 by equity capitalization ($5.61B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, ACIW leads on earnings valuation at 24.8x trailing P/E, while ACIW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.4% ROIC and 49.0% gross margin. ACIW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 74/100 (B) compared with VRNS at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company Roarable Grade RQD Score Trailing P/E Gross Margin ROIC 1D Change Market Cap Head-to-Head
VRNS ACTIVE
Varonis Systems Inc.
C 63/100 — 78.8% -15.3% -0.20% $5.61B Benchmark Subject
TENB
Tenable Holdings Inc.
D+ 58/100 — 78.1% -1.0% -6.50% $5.59B /tenb-vs-vrns →
ACIW
ACI Worldwide Inc.
B 74/100 24.8x 49.0% 12.4% +3.66% $5.69B /aciw-vs-vrns →
KVYO
Klaviyo Inc. (Series A)
C- 61/100 — 74.7% -11.5% +8.24% $5.73B /kvyo-vs-vrns →
OCTV
Octave Intelligence plc (Class B)
C- 61/100 — — — -2.53% $5.83B /octv-vs-vrns →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001361113 ↗

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) reported GAAP revenue of $623.5M (+13.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $551.0M , and +90.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$129.3M, operating cash flow of $147.4M, and free cash flow of $134.8M (+24.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, VRNS closed FY2025 with $1.79B in total assets against $419.2M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.74, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period Filing Date Revenue Net Income Operating Cash Flow Free Cash Flow Total Assets Total Debt
FY2025 (FY) 2025-12-31 $623.5M -$129.3M $147.4M $134.8M $1.79B $419.2M
FY2024 (FY) 2024-12-31 $551.0M -$95.8M $115.2M $108.5M $1.66B $389.4M
FY2023 (FY) 2023-12-31 $328.2M -$100.9M $59.4M $59.4M $3.08B $721.7M

3. VRNS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is VRNS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-03, Varonis Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: VRNS) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $48.75 (-0.20% 1D, market cap $5.61B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 17/20, SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and Executive Insider Alignment 10/20. Across 715 tracked Technology issuers, VRNS ranks #167 in composite RQD confidence.

How does VRNS compare to TENB and ACIW in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), VRNS carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 78.8%, and ROIC of -15.3%. By comparison, TENB (Tenable Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -1.0%, cap $5.59B) and ACIW (ACI Worldwide Inc.) posts a B grade (74/100 RQD, P/E 24.8x, ROIC 12.4%, cap $5.69B). Among the 5-stock peer group, ACIW leads on earnings multiple (24.8x) while ACIW leads on capital efficiency (12.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VRNS?

Per VRNS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001361113), Varonis Systems Inc. generated $623.5M in revenue (+13.2% YoY), -$129.3M in net income, and $134.8M in free cash flow against $1.79B in total assets and $419.2M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is VRNS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

VRNS last traded at $48.75 (-0.20% on volume of 2,876,266 shares), positioning the stock +2.89% above its 50-day simple moving average ($47.38) and +36.48% above its 200-day simple moving average ($35.72). Across its 52-week range of $19.70 to $50.31, VRNS sits at the 94.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±3.7% ($46.95 to $50.55).

ROARABLE RATING BRIEF • RQD 63/100 (C) ✓ SEC XBRL & RQD VERIFIED

VRNS — Varonis Systems Inc.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor

Methodology: RQD v6.2 Deterministic 5-Pillar & SEC XBRL Audit
Updated: 2025-12-31

1. Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor

Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) earns a live Roarable RQD composite score of 63/100, corresponding to a C letter grade (Roarable Hold) at a spot price of $48.75 (-0.20% 1D, market capitalization $5.61B).

  • Fundamental Cash Engine (12/20): Anchored by return on invested capital (ROIC) of -15.3%, gross margin of 78.8%, operating margin of -23.5%, and free cash flow yield of 2.40%.
  • Whale 13F & Options Flow (17/20) + Insider Conviction (10/20): Tracks institutional 13F accumulation, CBOE options call/put positioning, and SEC Form 4 / Congressional PTR filings.
  • Macro Regime Fit (12/20) + Forensic Balance Sheet (12/20): Incorporates a 1.31x equity beta, Altman Z-Score of 3.74, Piotroski F-Score of 7/9, and Debt/Equity of 0.60x.

2. Business Model, Unit Margins & SEC Financial Trajectory

Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) is a NASDAQ-listed issuer in the Technology sector, within the Computer Software: Prepackaged Software industry. The profile identifies a market capitalization of $5.6B. The company's gross margin is 78.8%, which indicates a software-style revenue structure.

In its latest audited SEC EDGAR 10-K filing for FY2025 (filed 2025-12-31), Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) reported $623.5M in annual revenue (up from $551.0M in FY2024, +13.2% YoY) and -$129.3M in GAAP net income. Over the multi-year SEC filing window from FY2023 ($328.2M revenue, -$100.9M net income) through FY2025, VRNS scaled operating cash flow to $147.4M and free cash flow to $134.8M, backed by $1.79B in total assets against $419.2M in total debt.

3. Institutional Bull vs. Bear Thesis & Valuation Tradeoff

  • 🐂 Primary Bull Case (C • RQD 63/100): Big institutional funds and options desks are actively positioning on the bullish side. Free cash flow yield of 2.40% and institutional whale pillar of 17/20. With Fundamental Cash Engine at 12/20 and Institutional Whale Flow at 17/20, sustained execution supports upside toward the upper end of the $19.70 – $50.31 52-week range.
  • 🐻 Primary Bear Case & Valuation Risk: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. Investors must weigh current valuation against -23.5% operating margins and a 1.31x macro beta.

4. 2nd-Order Butterfly Ripples & Key Questions to Watch

The supply_chain field is NONE and the butterfly_links list is empty. No upstream or downstream dependencies, sector correlations, or second-order bottlenecks are recorded in the source data. The sector is Technology and the industry is Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. The Proofpoint agreement referenced in the news feed is the only identified external linkage, and it is a catalyst rather than a supply-chain dependency. Investors should watch whether the pending transaction terms change the risk profile, but no ripple mapping is available in the source data.

  • Key Question #1: Can VRNS sustain or expand its -23.5% operating margin and -15.3% ROIC against Computer Software: Prepackaged Software peers over the next 4 quarters?
  • Key Question #2: Following FY2025 revenue of $623.5M and free cash flow of $134.8M, how will capital allocation balance growth reinvestment against $419.2M in total debt?
  • Key Question #3: How sensitive is VRNS's 26.0x forward P/E multiple to Technology capital spending cycles and macro interest-rate shifts (Beta 1.31x)?

VRNS Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire

Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Varonis Systems Inc. (VRNS) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below

💬 Jump to VRNS Debate Forum (3) ↓
🔥 THE ROAR PIT • LIVE COMMUNITY DEBATE 3 Active Posts & Replies

VRNS Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $48.75?

🐂 67% BULLISH CONVICTION COMMUNITY TUG-OF-WAR ON VRNS 🐻 33% BEARISH CONVICTION
1. Pick Your Side on VRNS:
💡 Tip: Back up your call with a price target or RQD metric to get upvoted to the top.
CA CashFlowKing RQD DEBATE OPENER • FCF Compounder Hunter 🐂 BULLISH 🎯 Target: $63.50 (+30.0%)
📌 Pinned Debate

A $49.75/share all-cash Proofpoint acquisition agreement sits just above the $48.82 price, and the company generated positive free cash

Here is why I am bullish on VRNS here at $48.85: A $49.75/share all-cash Proofpoint acquisition agreement sits just above the $48.82 price, and the company generated positive free cash flow rising from $59.4M to $134.8M while reducing debt from $721.7M to $419.2M.. Compare VRNS's -23.5% operating margin and -15.3% ROIC against the rest of Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. As long as cash conversion holds up, dips toward $46.41 are getting bought.

CapAlloc_Nerd 🐂 BULL

@ForensicBear Fair point on 26.0x forward P/E, but you're ignoring the forward operating leverage in Computer Software: Prepackaged Software. If gross margin (78.8%) holds, EPS grows into the multiple faster than bears think.

FO ForensicBear RQD DEBATE OPENER • 10-K Footnote Auditor 🐻 BEARISH 🎯 Target: $37.61 (-23.0%)
Spot @ $48.85

The company posted operating losses in each reported period, with a -15.3% ROIC, a trailing EPS of -1.13, and a stock trading near the

Careful chasing VRNS at $48.85. The company posted operating losses in each reported period, with a -15.3% ROIC, a trailing EPS of -1.13, and a stock trading near the top of its $19.7 to $50.31 52-week range.. Gross margin is 78.8%, but operating margin is -23.5%, which shows SG&A and reinvestment are eating into bottom-line EPS. Target $37.61 on multiple compression.

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