Vistra Corp. (VST) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

Per the Roarable RQD rating, VST scores 41 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars score as follows: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20 (ROIC 7.7%; FCF yield 2.79%), Whale 13F Flow 7/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 4/20 (Beta 0.57; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 8/20 (Altman Z 1.28; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 3).

For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and Forensic Balance Sheet. The low Altman Z-Score of 1.28 and Debt/Equity of 3 signal a leveraged balance sheet, which the rating treats as a vulnerability. The cash engine pillar is moderate: a 2.79% FCF yield and 7.7% ROIC provide some support, but are not strong. Flow and insider pillars are mid-range, indicating mixed positioning rather than a clear conviction signal. The stock's 50.1x trailing P/E and 42.1x forward P/E reflect a valuation the rating does not view as well-supported by current cash generation. Upside drivers would need to come from earnings growth or balance-sheet improvement; the rating's verdict suggests these are not yet visible in the source data.

Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $13804.0M (FY 2023) to $17586.0M (FY 2025), while net income fell from $2659.0M (FY 2024) to $944.0M (FY 2025). Per the market data, operating margin is 10.8%, net margin is 5.4%, and gross margin is recorded as 0%. ROIC is 7.7%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 1.28 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 3. Reported debt rose from $6088.5M (FY 2023) to $16398.0M (FY 2025), and FY 2025 cash of $785.0M is below FY 2024 cash of $1188.0M.

Per the recent news section, the wire includes six items dated within roughly 15 hours of the data timestamp. A GREEN "CATALYST" item reports stock movement on expectations of a Trump administration loan. A RED "RISK WATCH" item, a Trefis piece, questions whether the stock increases market risk. Several YELLOW "MARKET WIRE" items cover trailing-market performance, the investment thesis, and a comparison with Bloom Energy. No proprietary signals are listed.

Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, one link is recorded: NVDA to VST, relationship type BOTTLENECK_BENEFICIARY, evidence tier ANALYST_HYPOTHESIS, direction TAILWIND. The mechanism is that always-on AI data-center load tightens reserve margins in ERCOT and PJM, potentially lifting spark spreads and capacity prices. The next catalyst listed is PJM Base Residual Auction Results and Vistra forward fleet hedging or PPA disclosures.

• What is the company's revenue and earnings breakdown by generation source (nuclear, gas, retail) and by market (ERCOT, PJM)?
• Why did net income decline from $2659.0M (FY 2024) to $944.0M (FY 2025) while revenue increased, and what drove the change?
• What is the debt maturity schedule and interest cost behind the rise from $6088.5M (FY 2023) to $16398.0M (FY 2025)?
• What is the status and timing of the FERC co-location and cost-allocation proceedings referenced in the butterfly link?
• What are the EPS figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, which the source data lists as N/A?