Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Why VST Stock slipped -1.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Vistra Corp. (VST) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is VST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
▼
As of 2026-11-02, Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $138.37 (-1.83% 1D, market cap $47.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, VST ranks #93 in composite RQD confidence.
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does VST compare to ETR and D in the Utilities sector?
▼
Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), VST carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 50.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, ETR (Entergy Corporation) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 20.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $51.32B) and D (Dominion Energy Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $57.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEP leads on earnings multiple (17.0x) while FTS leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VST?
▼
Per VST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692819), Vistra Corp. generated $17.59B in revenue (+19.1% YoY), $944.0M in net income, and $1.32B in free cash flow against $41.55B in total assets and $16.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 7.5% FCF Margin ($1.32B FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)
Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (44.8) create a -16 pt regime headwind
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a VST Turnaround Squeeze
While VST currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Macro Regime Fit (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($145.27) and Max Pain ($145.29) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $206.64.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Why VST Stock slipped -1.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Vistra Corp. (VST) slipped -1.83% to $138.37, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($132.66 – $196.8). Stretched risk/reward at 50x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($132.66 – $196.8) with RSI-14 at 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.3% around $138.37 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $1.3B annual free cash flow.
Trefis report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
AI can't scale without electricity -- here are three power stocks built to profit from the demand over the next decade.
Nobody has to double their money every year to build real wealth. An investor who puts $10,000 into a stock that returns 15% annually and holds it for 40 years ends up with about $2.7 million. That takes patience, not a
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring VST)
- ✓Walkthrough of VST's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
VST Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +19.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Trigger: $145.46 • Invalidation: $130.38
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (VST)
1. Head-to-Head Utilities Peer Comparison (VST vs. ETR, D, AEP, FTS)
Industry: Electric Utilities: Central (56 Tracked Issuers)Across 117 tracked Utilities securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Vistra Corp. (VST) ranks #93 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #13 by equity capitalization ($47.31B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AEP leads on earnings valuation at 17.0x trailing P/E, while FTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 9.9% ROIC and — gross margin. FTS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with VST at 41/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST
ACTIVE
Vistra Corp. | D- | 41/100 | 50.1x | — | 7.7% | -1.83% | $47.31B | Benchmark Subject |
| ETR Entergy Corporation | D | 46/100 | 20.5x | — | 5.9% | +0.13% | $51.32B | /etr-vs-vst → |
| D Dominion Energy Inc. | C | 65/100 | 19.1x | — | 5.5% | +2.30% | $57.27B | /d-vs-vst → |
| AEP American Electric Power Company Inc. | C | 63/100 | 17.0x | — | 5.6% | +0.67% | $70.43B | /aep-vs-vst → |
| FTS Fortis Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | 32.8x | — | 9.9% | +1.00% | $29.68B | /fts-vs-vst → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001692819In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Vistra Corp. (VST) reported GAAP revenue of $17.59B (+19.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $14.76B , and +27.4% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $944.0M, operating cash flow of $4.07B, and free cash flow of $1.32B (-47.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, VST closed FY2025 with $41.55B in total assets against $16.40B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.28, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $17.59B | $944.0M | $4.07B | $1.32B | $41.55B | $16.40B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $14.76B | $2.66B | $4.56B | $2.48B | $37.77B | $14.48B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $13.80B | $1.49B | $5.45B | $4.83B | $26.02B | $6.09B |
3. VST Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs VST stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $138.37 (-1.83% 1D, market cap $47.31B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 4/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 117 tracked Utilities issuers, VST ranks #93 in composite RQD confidence.
How does VST compare to ETR and D in the Utilities sector?
Within the Utilities sector (Electric Utilities: Central), VST carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 50.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, ETR (Entergy Corporation) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 20.5x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $51.32B) and D (Dominion Energy Inc.) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 19.1x, ROIC 5.5%, cap $57.27B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AEP leads on earnings multiple (17.0x) while FTS leads on capital efficiency (9.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for VST?
Per VST's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001692819), Vistra Corp. generated $17.59B in revenue (+19.1% YoY), $944.0M in net income, and $1.32B in free cash flow against $41.55B in total assets and $16.40B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Utilities with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is VST trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
VST last traded at $138.37 (-1.83% on volume of 5,278,228 shares), positioning the stock -4.75% below its 50-day simple moving average ($145.27) and -9.73% below its 200-day simple moving average ($153.28). Across its 52-week range of $132.66 to $196.80, VST sits at the 8.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.3% ($124.12 to $152.62).
VST Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is VST stock moving today?
Why VST Stock slipped -1.83% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 50x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
VST — Vistra Corp.: What the Facts Mean to a Prospective Investor
Roarable Rating Brief: What This Means to a Prospective Investor
Per the Roarable RQD rating, VST scores 41 out of 100 with a letter grade of D-, labeled "Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow." The five pillars score as follows: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20 (ROIC 7.7%; FCF yield 2.79%), Whale 13F Flow 7/20 (institutional accumulation and options positioning), Insider Conviction 10/20 (SEC Form 4 and Congressional PTR cluster flow), Macro Regime Fit 4/20 (Beta 0.57; sector sensitivity), and Forensic Balance Sheet 8/20 (Altman Z 1.28; Piotroski F 6/9; Debt/Equity 3).
For a prospective investor, the weakest pillars are Macro Regime Fit and Forensic Balance Sheet. The low Altman Z-Score of 1.28 and Debt/Equity of 3 signal a leveraged balance sheet, which the rating treats as a vulnerability. The cash engine pillar is moderate: a 2.79% FCF yield and 7.7% ROIC provide some support, but are not strong. Flow and insider pillars are mid-range, indicating mixed positioning rather than a clear conviction signal. The stock's 50.1x trailing P/E and 42.1x forward P/E reflect a valuation the rating does not view as well-supported by current cash generation. Upside drivers would need to come from earnings growth or balance-sheet improvement; the rating's verdict suggests these are not yet visible in the source data.
Snapshot
Financial Trend
| Period | Revenue | Operating Income | Net Income | EPS | FCF | Cash | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $17586.0M | $1906.0M | $944.0M | N/A | $1318.0M | $785.0M | $16398.0M |
| FY 2024 | $14761.0M | $4081.0M | $2659.0M | N/A | $2485.0M | $1188.0M | $14484.1M |
| FY 2023 | $13804.0M | $2661.0M | $1493.0M | N/A | $4831.8M | N/A | $6088.5M |
Per the SEC financials, revenue rose from $13804.0M (FY 2023) to $17586.0M (FY 2025), while net income fell from $2659.0M (FY 2024) to $944.0M (FY 2025). Per the market data, operating margin is 10.8%, net margin is 5.4%, and gross margin is recorded as 0%. ROIC is 7.7%. Per the RQD forensic pillar, the Altman Z-Score is 1.28 and the Piotroski F-Score is 6/9, with Debt/Equity at 3. Reported debt rose from $6088.5M (FY 2023) to $16398.0M (FY 2025), and FY 2025 cash of $785.0M is below FY 2024 cash of $1188.0M.
Recent Catalysts & News Wire Analysis
Per the recent news section, the wire includes six items dated within roughly 15 hours of the data timestamp. A GREEN "CATALYST" item reports stock movement on expectations of a Trump administration loan. A RED "RISK WATCH" item, a Trefis piece, questions whether the stock increases market risk. Several YELLOW "MARKET WIRE" items cover trailing-market performance, the investment thesis, and a comparison with Bloom Energy. No proprietary signals are listed.
Per the Butterfly Supply-Chain Graph, one link is recorded: NVDA to VST, relationship type BOTTLENECK_BENEFICIARY, evidence tier ANALYST_HYPOTHESIS, direction TAILWIND. The mechanism is that always-on AI data-center load tightens reserve margins in ERCOT and PJM, potentially lifting spark spreads and capacity prices. The next catalyst listed is PJM Base Residual Auction Results and Vistra forward fleet hedging or PPA disclosures.
Open Questions
- What is the company's revenue and earnings breakdown by generation source (nuclear, gas, retail) and by market (ERCOT, PJM)?
- Why did net income decline from $2659.0M (FY 2024) to $944.0M (FY 2025) while revenue increased, and what drove the change?
- What is the debt maturity schedule and interest cost behind the rise from $6088.5M (FY 2023) to $16398.0M (FY 2025)?
- What is the status and timing of the FERC co-location and cost-allocation proceedings referenced in the butterfly link?
- What are the EPS figures for FY 2023 through FY 2025, which the source data lists as N/A?
VST Live News Feed, Press Releases & Catalyst Wire
Real-time company headlines, analyst actions, and sector developments for Vistra Corp. (VST) • Click "Debate This Headline" to argue it in the Roar Pit below
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Trefis report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
The Motley Fool report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
Yahoo Finance report covering Vistra Corp. (VST) market action, institutional positioning, and fundamental catalysts.
VST Bull vs. Bear Conversation Board — What's Your Call at $138.37?
🔥 Official Bull vs. Bear Debate: Is VST (D- • RQD 41/100) a Buy at $140.95?
Welcome to the VST (Vistra Corp.) Roar Pit. Current RQD Composite is 41/100 (Roarable Sell — Vulnerable Balance Sheet & Flow) in Electric Utilities: Central. Bulls point to operating leverage and sector positioning, while bears focus on valuation multiple compression (50.1x trailing P/E). Pick your side (🐂 Bull or 🐻 Bear) and drop your price target below.
Pump the brakes on VST — check the valuation vs. margin headwinds
Everyone in here is repeating the bull case on VST, but look at what you are paying: 50.1x trailing P/E with tightening sector spreads. Unless Vistra Corp. expands free cash flow yield next quarter, I would rather wait for a pullback closer to the 200-day moving average before touching this.
VST cash flow & RQD setup is being underpriced by the Street here
Looking at the 5-pillar RQD breakdown on VST, the market is fixating on short-term headline noise in Electric Utilities: Central and ignoring the balance sheet and cash flow trajectory. At $140.95 (52-wk range $132.66 - $196.80), any beat on forward guidance forces shorts and underweight funds to chase.